In the hunt isn’t where the Bears wanted to be entering their idle Sunday in Week 14. But it sure beats being out of the hunt, which is where they were in early November before winning four of five games.
So here they are, at 7-6 and clinging to faint playoff hopes. They insist they’re focused only on next Sunday’s game against the Packers at Lambeau Field, which is the smart way to approach the uphill road ahead.
Meanwhile, we have the luxury of assessing the entire NFC. Football is supposed to be fun, right? And if you want to dream — or at least understand what the Bears playoff fantasy would require — we’re here to help.
We’ve dusted off the Bears weekly playoff picture and scoreboard watching guide to navigate the playoff race until the Bears’ fate becomes certain.
For what it’s worth, the New York Times’ NFL playoff calculator handicaps the Bears’ playoff chances at 5%. It’s based on almost 20,000 computerized game simulations. But you don’t need all that to understand how their place in the NFC standings (eighth) and the remaining schedule for every team probably means they won’t be playing in January.
That said, the Bears are still alive and can’t be eliminated in Week 14. Their best chance of making the playoffs — albeit a long shot — is to catch the Vikings for the sixth seed (and second wild-card berth).
The Vikings lead the Bears by 11/2 games entering their home game Sunday against the Lions. The Vikings’ magic number to finish ahead of the Bears is 3 — meaning any combination of Vikings wins and Bears losses that totals three will ensure the Vikings place ahead of the Bears.
So at this stage, Bears fans should be rooting hard against the Vikings. And the Rams, who are seeded seventh and have a head-to-head tiebreaker over them.
Here’s the Week 14 picture, including a guide to relevant games Sunday and Monday:
NFC standings
(Top two seeds get first-round byes; division winners are top-four seeds; seeds 5 and 6 are the wild-card teams)
1. Saints (10-2) vs. 49ers
2. Seahawks (10-2) at Rams
3. Packers (9-3) vs. Redskins
4. Cowboys (6-7) lost to Bears
5. 49ers (10-2) at Saints
6. Vikings (8-4) vs. Lions
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7. Rams (7-5) vs. Seahawks
8. Bears (7-6) beat Cowboys
9. Buccaneers (5-7) vs. Colts
10. Eagles (5-7) vs. Giants
NFC scenarios
BEARS
Cannot be eliminated in Week 14
SAINTS
Already clinched NFC South title
Cannot clinch a first-round bye in Week 14
SEAHAWKS
Would clinch playoff berth with:
1. Win or tie
49ERS
Would clinch playoff berth with:
1. Win PLUS Rams loss or tie, OR
2. Tie PLUS Rams loss
Scoreboard watching
Lions at Vikings, noon Sunday
Again, the Bears’ best path to the playoffs goes past the Vikings, so the Vikings need to lose. But they’re 5-0 at home this season and 13-point favorites against the same Lions team the Bears beat twice in November. If the Lions pull the upset, Bears fans could start to believe there’s a miracle in the air.
Redskins at Packers, noon Sunday
The Packers haven’t clinched the NFC North. They also haven’t eliminated the Bears from winning the division. A win Sunday wouldn’t even accomplish that. But if they’re going to collapse, losing at home to the Redskins as 121/2-point favorites would be the way to start.
Seahawks at Rams, 7:20 p.m. Sunday
The Rams lead the Bears by a half-game and have secured the tiebreaker because of their head-to-head win Nov. 17. So the Bears have to make up 11/2 games in the standings to qualify for the playoffs ahead of the Rams. Bears fans should pull for the Seahawks.
Giants at Eagles, 7:15 p.m. Monday
The Eagles have their eyes on winning the NFC East, which appears will be easier than catching the Vikings in the wild-card race. But if the Eagles do push for a wild-card berth, they have the tiebreaker over the Bears because of their head-to-head victory Nov. 3. Bears fans should root for the Giants.
