Respond to prefers-color-scheme dark in app web views

Follow section front redirects in Spectrum

Enable NLP source in PCS for load testing

Switch off the News Alerts Survey Widget when we have enough responses

Poll to determine if new LUF updates are available

Allows the winning A/B test variant to be turned on without Spectrum deployment

Show infinite scrolling sections in Assembler MultiView

Show option for NLP article summaries in Action Bar

A general feature flag for Recipe Features that aren't yet released

Feature flag for media team features that aren't yet released

Use new Orca video player for preroll plugin in Spectrum

Show the snow tracker (instead of the heat tracker) on Spectrum

Election 2024 latest news: Biden holding events in battleground state of North Carolina

That time football legend, rig-driving eligible bachelor Biden was arrested

Campuses are grappling with the Gaza war. So are our columnists.

Trevor Williams’s escape act helps Nationals blank Rangers 

How the Nationals helped Mitchell Parker develop into a big leaguer

The 33 best things to do in D.C. this weekend and next week

Middle East conflict live updates: Hamas says it views talks favorably; Blinken urges group to accept deal

Money goes elsewhere, aid workers flee, Haitians endure on their own

Why the Solomon Islands election matters to China and the U.S.

Russian state media ramping up English, Spanish presence on TikTok, study finds

Microsoft is changing how you log in to your accounts

Apple is behind in AI and killed its self-driving car project. What’s next?

Stephen A. Smith would like even more of your attention

Wait, what is Stephen A. Smith talking about? Find out with our quiz.

Local sports networks go dark mid-game amid dispute with Comcast 

Trump and allies say Biden pays rent for ‘illegals’ in Michigan. Not true.

Eighty percent of Ukraine-Israel bill will be spent in U.S. or by U.S. military

Cat climbed into Amazon return box, found alive 630 miles away

I learned to heal my sadness by cradling dying chickens 

Brave Little Hunter is free: Baby orca escapes lagoon for open seas

Carolyn Hax: Will request for a postnup offend much younger wife?

Ask Sahaj: Responding to microaggressions is taking a toll on me. Can I stop?

Miss Manners: Offering my bedroom to guests

What’s the best bus to New York? We tested 5 for comfort and value.

Adaptive equipment is making national parks more inclusive

Southwest passengers now get a $75 voucher for big flight disruptions

Young Georgians want to be part of Europe. Their government is in the way.

Taxes are inevitable. Paying to prepare them doesn’t have to be.

A murder plot that cannot be ignored: India must come clean at last

The beginner’s illustrated guide to watching an F1 race

Police arrest pro-Palestinian protesters at Columbia

US President Joe Biden Departure

See more coverage in your recommendations

Get the weekly Campaign Moment newsletter

Set alerts for major election developments

Election 2024

The Campaign Moment newsletter

Politics alerts

Angela Weiss

The first thing President Trump said at the second presidential debate was false.

“As you know,” he said in response to a question about his handling of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/coronavirus/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">coronavirus</a> epidemic, “2.2 million people modeled out were expected to die."

Trump was referring to a study <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf">published</a> by Imperial College London in March.

“In total,” it concluded, “in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in [Great Britain] and 2.2 million in the U.S.," even excluding the number of deaths that would result from hospitals being filled with coronavirus patients.

The key word there is “unmitigated.” That's what the death toll could have been by midsummer if the country were to do literally nothing: keeping everything open, yes, but also not even isolating sick people. Even had the federal government done nothing, states would nonetheless have acted, as some did in advance of the White House's eventual embrace of shutdown measures. In other words, it was not the case that 2.2 million deaths was the baseline of what should have been expected.

It's obvious why it's useful for Trump to cite that number, of course: the bigger the worst-case outcome, the better the actual outcome looks. By the White House's own measure, though, the actual outcome has been bleak.

When Trump's coronavirus task force first called for closing parts of the economy to contain the virus in March, it produced a graph using that figure as the upper limit of what could have happened. A mitigated pandemic, on the other hand, would mean that only 100,000 to 240,000 deaths would occur.

As of writing, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/">at least 222,000</a> people have died of the virus. The key phrase here is “at least,” but we'll come back to that.

Shortly after Trump's 2.2-million claim, former vice president Joe Biden used the confirmed death toll to criticize how the administration had handled the pandemic.

“Two hundred and twenty thousand Americans dead,” Biden said. “If you hear nothing else I say tonight, hear this: anyone who's responsible for not taking control, in fact, [saying] I take no responsibility initially — anyone who's responsible for that many deaths should not remain as President of the United States of America." 

This, too, is misleading. Trump can't be considered accountable for 220,000 American deaths from the coronavirus. At least: not yet.

Assessing the number of people who might have died had the federal government acted differently is tricky for three reasons. First, the actual number of deaths so far is a bit murky. Second, the number of deaths the country might have seen involves a fair amount of speculation. And, third, people are still dying at the rate of 1,000 a day, meaning that we're nowhere near knowing what the final toll from the virus will be.

As noted above, there are at least 222,000 confirmed deaths to date. Many of those came at the outset of the pandemic, when undetected infections spread from person-to-person before containment measures were implemented.

Because of how the virus works — infections are identified a week or two before patients succumb — surges in new cases have preceded surges in deaths. You can see that in the recent data: cases began to increase at the end of last month; deaths began to increase over the past week.

What isn't captured is any unconfirmed deaths, deaths which followed undiagnosed infections or which preceded America's slow rollout of testing. To estimate that total, we look at excess deaths, how many people died in 2020 compared to preceding years. Deaths follow seasonal patterns, and exceptional mortality events therefore stand out statistically.

A report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released earlier this week <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w">estimates</a> that “an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19,” the disease caused by the virus.

That's roughly in line with the confirmed total through the same date, but this estimate, too, has limitations. More recent deaths might not yet have been counted, for one, and because “deaths from other causes might represent misclassified COVID-19 — related deaths,” as the report notes. Nonetheless, it seems fair to assume that the number of deaths is around the 222,000 total.

How many might have died?

One way to look at it is to compare the death toll in the United States with outcomes in other, similar countries. That's the approach <a href="https://ncdp.columbia.edu/custom-content/uploads/2020/10/Avoidable-COVID-19-Deaths-US-NCDP.pdf">taken</a> by researchers with Columbia University's National Center for Disaster Preparedness. This week, they released a report estimating that between 130,000 and 210,000 deaths from covid-19 didn't need to occur, had the country's response been as effective as those of other nations.

In South Korea, where the first infection was detected on the same day as the United States, there have been only 0.85 deaths per 100,000 residents. That's largely a function of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/07/comparisons-with-south-korea-tell-opposite-story-one-trump-wants/">robust containment measures</a> the country undertook right off the bat, unrolling a broad testing regimen that allowed it to halt the progression of the virus. Had the United States been able to do something similar and achieved a 0.85 per 100,000 death rate, only about 2,800 people would have died here.

Even if we'd matched Germany, where the death toll was 11.72 per 100,000 residents, we'd still have seen fewer than 40,000 deaths. Instead, the number of deaths in the United States is the highest in the world, and among the highest when controlling for population.

What might the United States have done instead? Delays in implementing a national containment strategy might have led to <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v2">36,000 additional deaths</a>, according to another team at Columbia. Then, of course, there are personal mitigation strategies, like encouraging the wearing of face masks and avoiding crowded indoor spaces.

“If we just wore these masks,” Biden said at the debate, holding one up, “the president's own advisers have told him we could save 100,000 lives." 

Which is true — and effects what comes next.

How many more people will die?

Many assessments of how the country has fared center on the extent of the pandemic to date. But we're no better able to fully evaluate our success or failure now than we are to know who is winning a horse race halfway around the track.

An estimate of future coronavirus deaths in the United States compiled by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation</a> at the University of Washington puts the death toll here at nearly 400,000 by early February of next year.

There's some statistical uncertainty to that estimate, indicated by the shaded area. One takeaway, though: by mid-November, the country will have surpassed 240,000 deaths, the upper-bound on what the White House in March identified as a successful pandemic response.

There's also uncertainty because we don't know how effective Americans will be at limiting the virus's spread. If everyone wears masks all the time, the estimate drops to about 322,000 deaths by Feb. 1. If we ease containment measures, the toll rises to 485,000.

A separate study from the IHME team <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9">published</a> in the journal Nature Medicine had a higher estimate of the toll over the next few months.

“Projections of current non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies by state — with social distancing mandates reinstated when a threshold of 8 deaths per million population is exceeded (reference scenario) — suggest that, cumulatively, 511,373 (469,578—578,347) lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by 28 February 2021. We find that achieving universal mask use (95% mask use in public) could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Universal mask use could save an additional 129,574 (85,284—170,867) lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 (60,731—133,077) lives assuming a lesser adoption of mask-wearing (85%), when compared to the reference scenario.” 

That's a lot of numbers, but the central points are twofold. First, that the country could see more than 500,000 deaths by the end of February without therapeutic drugs being widely available. Second, that near-universal mask-wearing could shave 130,000 deaths off that figure. Put another way, nearly half of the expected toll could be prevented if Americans consistently wore face masks.

These are estimates, but they are obviously ones in our power to affect. It's probably more in Trump's power to affect, given that his general indifference to encouraging mask-wearing is almost certainly a significant driver of the partisan divide in doing so. A Yahoo!-YouGov <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7h9ohi94io/20201011_yahoo_coronavirus_tabs.pdf">poll</a> earlier this month found a wide gap in self-reported mask-wearing by party.

Put all of this together and we arrive at a fair assessment of the situation that runs as follows:

At least 200,000 people have died of covid-19.

Tens of thousands of those deaths, at least, were preventable.

Tens of thousands of more deaths will occur, many of them also preventable.

Biden’s assertion that Trump bears the blame for 220,000 American deaths was overstated. But it’s still demonstrably more accurate than Trump’s shrugging claim that 2.2 million people might have died on his watch and his past claims that the government’s response was an unmitigated success.

The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America

Ohio State University

Philip Bump is a Post columnist based in New York. He writes the newsletter <a href="https://wapo.st/3m3QTiy">How To Read This Chart</a> and is the author of <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/696653/the-aftermath-by-philip-bump/">The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America</a>.

Philip Bump

washpost

the-washington-post

Contributor

AFP/Getty Images

Getty

FILES-US-HEALTH-VIRUS-MORTALITY

Biden administration

The Fix

The 202s

Polling

Democracy in America

Politics

iptc-media/society/demographics

iptc-media/science_and_technology

iptc-media/health/diseases_and_conditions

iptc-media/health/diseases_and_conditions/communicable_disease

iptc-media/health

iptc-media/health/diseases_and_conditions/communicable_disease/epidemic

iptc-media/society

iptc-media/health/diseases_and_conditions/illness

iptc-media/health/diseases_and_conditions/communicable_disease/virus_disease

iptc-media/health/health_treatment

iptc-media/health/diseases_and_conditions/communicable_disease/virus_disease/retrovirus

client-blocklists/Client List: Morgan Stanley KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Amazon KWs - EXCLUDE ALL 

client-blocklists/Client List: Becton Dickinson KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/CLIENT LIST: Nomura KWs 2021 - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Boeing KWs 2021- INCLUDE ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Exxon Mobil  - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/GEICO KWs - INCLUDES ANY_4.26.21

client-blocklists/Client List: T. Rowe Price KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Microsoft KWs 2 - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/T. Rowe Price KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/HBO KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Ford/Lincoln KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/ExxonMobil 03312021 KWs - INCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Bank of America KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

advertising/Flu, Sickness & Virus Content

client-blocklists/WaPo: Combined Disaster Keyword List - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/Coronavirus Content

client-blocklists/Client List: Navy Federal Credit Union NFCU KWs 2 - EXCLUDES ALL - 12.23.20

client-blocklists/Client List: Eli Lily KWs - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/B2_Culture and Tradition_legacyaux_kfx

advertising/B2_Data Center Buyer_legacyaux_80A

client-blocklists/Client List: Purina KWs - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/Citrix Mindfulness

advertising/B2_Health and Beauty_legacyaux_3fv

advertising/B2_Health Care Policy Enthusiast_legacyaux_7ny

advertising/B2_Health_legacyaux_q5h

advertising/Client Keywords: On Running

client-blocklists/BP KWs - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/B2_Positive News_legacyaux_hlt

advertising/B2_Retirement Planners 2.12.15_legacyaux_k9i

advertising/B2_Science, Health & Technology_legacyaux_wkq

advertising/B2_Society_legacyaux_0cz

client-blocklists/Client List: GEICO KWs

client-blocklists/Client List: KPMG KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Navy Federal Credit Union NFCU KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Novo Nordisk KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Siemens KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Cisco KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: AT&T ALT KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Mercedes KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/FX Excludes All Disney

client-blocklists/Client List: Inpixon KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Boeing KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Aetna KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Google KWs - INCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: AT&T KWs 2021 - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Philip Morris KWs - INCLUDES ANY 

client-blocklists/Capital One KWs 2 - INCLUDES ANY - 1.4.21

client-blocklists/Bank of America Merrill Lynch KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Google PG KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Chase KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Office Depot KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: ETrade KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

prism://prism.query/site-articles-only,/politics&limit=20

Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter.

Post Politics from The Washington Post is the source for political news headlines, in-depth politics coverage and political opinion, plus breaking news on the biden administration and White House, Congress, the Supreme Court, elections and more.

prism://prism.query/site,/politics/the-fix&limit=6