Graham to Biden: ‘I am tired of the s***show,’ send US tanks so others will follow

GRAHAM: ‘TIRED OF THE S***SHOW’: President Joe Biden is under increasing congressional pressure to send at least a token number of U.S. M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, if that’s what it takes to break the impasse that’s holding up hundreds of German-made Leopard 2 tanks from being delivered to Kyiv ahead of an expected Russian spring offensive.

As Germany appears to be slowly acquiescing to the idea of other NATO allies, such as Poland, sending their Leopard tanks, it has resisted sending its own, reportedly waiting for the United States to lead the way with M1 Abrams.

After Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin left Germany on Friday without an agreement from Germany on tanks, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who was in Kyiv with Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) for talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials, let his frustration boil over.

“All three of us, one Republican and two Democrats, share the same goal — for Ukraine to drive the Russians out of Ukraine. To achieve that goal, the Ukrainian military needs tanks,” Graham said in remarks after meeting Zelensky. “I am tired of the s***show surrounding who is going to send tanks and when they are going to send them. … To the Germans: Send tanks to Ukraine because they need them. It is in your own national interest that Putin loses in Ukraine. To the Biden administration: Send American tanks so that others will follow our lead.”

A ’50-50′ CHANCE: UKRAINE GETS ARMOR BUT NOT TANKS THEY NEED

CAN ABRAMS UNLOCK THE LEOPARDS? When a reporter asked Austin about the possibility of the U.S. sending “a small number” of Abrams tanks to encourage Germany to unlock the Leopards, Austin insisted the Germans were not linking the two.

“I think you heard the German minister of defense say earlier today that there’s no linkage between providing M1s and providing Leopards,” said Austin. “So this notion of unlocking, you know, in my mind, is not an issue.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has been quoted as saying Germany “would not stand in the way” of Poland sending Leopards, while Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has reportedly said that if Germany withholds authorization for Leopard tanks for Ukraine, Poland will create a coalition of allies to supply them without Germany’s approval. “We will not passively watch Ukraine bleed to death,” he was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, on the Sunday shows, there was bipartisan support for the idea of the U.S. sending a few Abrams, even if it were to be a largely symbolic gesture. “I respect that our military leaders think the Abrams is too sophisticated, too expensive a platform to be as useful as the Leopards,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a close Biden ally, on ABC. “If it requires our sending some Abrams tanks in order to unlock getting the Leopard tanks from Germany, from Poland, from other allies, I would support that.”

On CNN, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) said he is “100%” in favor of sending Abrams. “We don’t have to send very many. All we have to do is send enough to unleash what Germany has and what the 10 other countries in NATO have.”

OFFICIALS DENY ‘LINKAGE’ BETWEEN US AND GERMANY SENDING UKRAINE TANKS

NOT JUST TANKS: McCaul said that just as important as main battle tanks is to start providing longer-range ammunition for the U.S. HIMARS launchers that have been so effective in targeting Russian supply lines and ammunition depots.

“We’re giving them just enough to bleed through months, without a chance of victory. That’s the problem here. They need the tanks, and they need the tactical long-range artillery known as ATACMS,” McCaul said on ABC. “They also need the ATACMS, a longer-range artillery, to hit Crimea, where the Iranian drones are. … That’s what’s causing all the power outages, the innocent civilians being killed, these Iranian drones in Crimea, in addition to other missiles.”

“President Biden is moving far too slowly. We need to lead from the front by providing more, better, and faster aid to Ukrainian troops,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “It is in our national interest to give Ukraine the tools it needs to defeat Vladimir Putin and end this war. … We can shift this war immediately in Ukraine’s favor by providing a range of advanced weapons, including tanks, drones, and tactical missiles.”

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HAPPENING TOMORROW: We may get a better idea of whether Germany is ready to give in to U.S. requests to unleash the Leopards when NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets in Berlin tomorrow with Germany’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius.

Pistorius, who’s only been in the job a week, and Stoltenberg are scheduled to hold a joint press conference at 3:15 a.m. Eastern time (9:15 a.m. in Germany).

“If we want a negotiated peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, we need to provide military support to Ukraine. That’s the only way,” Stoltenberg said in remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. “Weapons, they are the way to peace. And that may sound like a paradox, but the only way to have a negotiated agreement is to convince President Putin that they will not win on the battlefield.”

NEW GERMAN DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS COUNTRY IS ‘READY TO MOVE QUICKLY’ ON TANKS TO UKRAINE BUT NO DECISION YET

STAGGERING RUSSIAN CASUALTIES: In Friday’s news conference following the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said Russia’s battlefield losses continue to mount.

“The Russian casualties, the last time I reported on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it’s significantly well over 100,000 now,” Milley said, “and that includes their regular military and also their mercenaries in the Wagner Group and other type forces that are fighting with the Russians. They have really suffered a lot.”

Various reports about what was briefed behind closed doors during the Ramstein meeting put the number as high as 188,000, though Milley noted, “The numbers of casualties in war are always suspect.”

Casualties can refer to both dead and wounded, and Milley gave no estimate of Ukrainian losses, which have reportedly been high in the fierce fighting in the eastern Donbas area. On Norwegian TV yesterday, Defense Chief Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen said estimates are that Russia has suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine has 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths.

MILLEY: ‘VERY, VERY DIFFICULT’ FOR UKRAINE TO PUSH RUSSIA OUT THIS YEAR

McCAUL: ‘WE HAVE TO EDUCATE OUR MEMBERS’: On CNN, Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX) pushed back on the idea that the new Republican majority in the House would succeed in making significant cuts in aid to Ukraine.

“I think there’s enough support on both sides of the aisle, majority in the Democratic Party, majority in the Republican, the national security chairman, like myself, support this,” he said. “We have to educate our members. I don’t think they quite understand what is at stake.”

“If Ukraine falls, Chairman Xi in China’s going to invade Taiwan. It’s Russia, China. Iran is putting drones in Crimea, and North Korea is putting artillery into Russia. They have to understand the case,” he told CNN’s Dana Bash. “And they talk about the border, not mutually exclusive at all. We can do both. We’re a great country. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.”

US AID TO UKRAINE EXCEEDS $26 BILLION AND IS STILL GROWING

CHATGPT ANSWERS BURNING QUESTION: There’s a lot of discussion about exactly why Germany is so reluctant to send its Leopard tanks to Ukraine, so I decided to ask the new artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT to take a crack at it. The program from OpenAI uses algorithms gleaned from millions of pages of internet sources to formulate answers that can sound authoritative but are often inaccurate.

I asked the program if it could explain Germany’s opposition to sending tanks to Ukraine, and this is what it spit out:

While the Leopard 2 is widely considered to be one of the most advanced and capable tanks in the world, officials have cited concerns over the potential for the tanks to be used in aggressive actions against Russian forces.

Germany has long been a major supplier of military equipment to other countries, but in recent years it has become increasingly cautious about exporting weapons to areas of conflict. This reluctance is driven by a desire to avoid fueling conflicts or exacerbating tensions in regions where Germany has significant political, economic, and diplomatic ties.

Germany has also reportedly demanded that the United States send its M1A1 Abrams tank to Ukraine first before any decision on sending the Leopard 2 tanks is made. This is likely an attempt by Germany to avoid being seen as the instigator of a potential arms race in the region.

Sounds about right, which makes this AI program just seem a little scary.

SYRIA RAID NETS ISIS ‘FACILITATORS’: The U.S. Central Command reported this morning that two Islamic State “facilitators” have been nabbed in eastern Syria in what was described as partnered helicopter and ground assault.

Abdallah Hamid Muslih al Maddad, also known as Abu Hamza al Suri, an ISIS facilitator, and Husam Hamid al Muslih al Maddad al Khayr, an ISIS facilitator and logistician, were captured Saturday, according to Col. Joe Buccino, a CENTCOM spokesman.

“The capture will disrupt the terrorist organization’s ability to further plot and carry out attacks that threaten regional security and stability,” Buccino said in a news release.

INDUSTRY WATCH: Jordan has sealed a deal to buy a dozen F-16s to modernize its air force, according to Breaking Defense.

“As announced by the armed forces’ official website, the deal was signed Jan. 19 by Royal Air Force Commander Brigadier General Pilot Muhammad Fathi Hiasat and U.S. Deputy Chief of mission in Amman Rohit Nepal,” the website reported. “According to the Jordanian statement, the deal comes within the framework of boosting defense capabilities and military deterrence, to increase the level of combat readiness.”

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The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US aid to Ukraine exceeds $26 billion and is still growing

Washington Examiner: Milley: ‘Very, very difficult’ for Ukraine to push Russia out this year

Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin implores global defense leaders to ‘dig deeper’ in arming Ukraine

Washington Examiner: A ’50-50′ chance: Ukraine gets armor but not tanks they need

Washington Examiner: Officials deny ‘linkage’ between US and Germany sending Ukraine tanks

Washington Examiner: New German defense minister says country is ‘ready to move quickly’ on tanks to Ukraine but no decision yet

Washington Examiner: France’s defense spending set for big boost following Macron pledge

Washington Examiner: Treasury Department to list Wagner Group as ‘transnational criminal organization’

Washington Examiner: CIA director visited Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian leaders about Russia’s plans

Washington Examiner: Pompeo slams Trump’s defense of Putin in 2018 as ‘mistake’: Book

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Don’t let Taiwan become a casualty of the Ukraine war

Washington Examiner: Analysis: Discussing Taiwan and related issues with Elbridge Colby

Washington Examiner: Opinion: China’s threat requires more F-15EX fighter jets and fewer F-35s

The War Zone: F-15EX First Operational Units Will Not Get Conformal Fuel Tanks

New York Times: Russian Cell Suspected In Spain Terror Attacks

19fortyfive.com: The West Isn’t Scared of Ukraine Beating Russia Anymore

19fortyfive.com: The War in Ukraine is About Explode

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has a Problem: His Plan To Make Russia’s Military Strong Looks Doomed

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Coyote Air Defense Weapon Shoots Down Drones Attacking US Outpost

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Guard F-16Cs Get New Home, Mission with Aggressor Squadron in Alaska

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Saltzman’s Priorities for Space Force: Three New Lines of Effort

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Weapons Chief Offers Details on the Air Force Munitions Roadmap

Washington Post: Western Ukraine, distant from the front lines, feels the burdens of war

Defense News: Macron Wants €400 Billion to ‘Transform’ France’s Forces Through 2030

Washington Times: Brass Bloat? Critics Debate Cutting Number Of U.S. Generals, Admirals

Yonhap: N. Korea Continues To Provide Ammunition To Russia In Violation Of UNSC Sanctions: White House

19fortyfive.com: The West Isn’t Scared of Ukraine Beating Russia Anymore

19fortyfive.com: The War in Ukraine is About Explode

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has a Problem: His Plan To Make Russia’s Military Strong Looks Doomed

AP: Envoy says Taiwan learns from Ukraine war

Reuters: Russian Warship Armed With Hypersonic Missiles To Join Drills With China, S.Africa

New York Times: China’s Mad Dash Into a Strategic Island Nation Breeds Resentment

Reuters: U.S. Military Says Somalia Strike Killed 30 Al Shabaab Fighters

CNN: U.S. Pilot Shot Down Four Soviet MIGs In 30 Minutes – And Kept It A Secret For 50 Years

Wall Street Journal: Opinion: Germany Blinks on Tanks for Ukraine

Washington Post: Opinion: Germany is refusing to send tanks to Ukraine. Biden cannot let this stand

Calendar

MONDAY | JANUARY 23

9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual book discussion: India in the Indo-Pacific: Understanding India’s Security Orientation Toward Southeast and East Asia, with author Aditi Malhotra, editor-in-chief of the Canadian Army Journal https://www.stimson.org/event/understanding-indias-security-role

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion: Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies, with co-editor Ilona Sologub, director of political and economic research at the Kyiv School of Economics; Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum; Richard Green, professor at the University of Southern California’s School of Public Policy; and Vladyslav Rashkovan, alternative executive director of the International Monetary Fund https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/rebuilding-a-prosperous-postwar-ukraine

11 a.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft webinar: “The Kishida Visit and U.S.-Japan Defense Relations: Creating a More Stable Asia?” with Mike Mochizuki, George Washington University’s Japan-U.S. relations chairman; Yuki Tatsumi, senior fellow and co-director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program; Tobias Harris, deputy director and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United State’s Asia Program; and Michael Swaine, QI senior research fellow https://quincyinst.org/event/the-kishida-visit

1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “A Conversation with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness,” with Hal Brands, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-john-cornyn

TUESDAY | JANUARY 24

9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Japan in 2023,” with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel and Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Koji Tomita https://www.brookings.edu/events/japan-in-2023

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Deputy CIA Director Linda Weissgold and INSA Executive Vice President John Doyon https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation event: “The importance of the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise to the nation’s security,” with Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, and Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton, commander, 20th Air Force, Air Force Global Strike Command https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “The Iran Threat: What to Expect in 2023,” with Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program; James Phillips, visiting fellow at the Heritage Center for Foreign Policy Studies; and Peter Brookes, senior research fellow at the Heritage Center for National Defense https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/event/the-iran-threat-what-expect-2023

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 25

9 a.m. 400 Courthouse Sq., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Homeland Security Week Conference, with Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Troy Miller https://www.idga.org/events-homelandsecurityweek

9 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Science and Engineering Technology Division breakfast discussion with Ben Petro, director of defense research operations in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering https://www.ndia.org/events

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “How Russia Handles Western Sanctions,” with Polina Ivanova, foreign correspondent, Financial Times https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/25/carnegie-connects

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Challenges to America’s Weapons Supply Chain,” with Lockheed Martin CEO James Taiclet https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/lockheed-martin-ceo

11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion on “DISA’s (Defense Information Systems Agency) Priorities for 2023 and Beyond: An Indepth Look Through the Lens of Agency Leadership,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, DISA director; Stephen Wallace, chief technology officer of DISA; Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. Daniel Krause, DISA senior enlisted adviser; Don Means Jr., director of the DISA Operations and Infrastructure Center; Ryan McArthur, program manager at the Defense Department’s Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability contract; and retired Air Force Command Sgt. David Klink, former DISA senior enlisted adviser https://afceadc.swoogo.com/disa23

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: ”A Global Outlook with Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper,” in discussion with Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/global-outlook-former-secretary-defense-mark-esper

THURSDAY | JANUARY 26

8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor, Maryland — American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics SciTech Forum: “Ignite the Future: Explore the Frontiers of Aerospace,” with Ellen Ebner, director of sustainable technologies, sustainability, and future mobility at the Boeing Company; Jeff Shaknaitis, customer sustainability leader at GE Aviation; and Amanda Simpson, vice president of research and technology at Airbus Americas, participate in a discussion on “Sustainability Leadership: Addressing Industry Developments in Aviation” https://www.aiaa.org/SciTech/registration

9:30 a.m. 406 Dirksen — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing: “China’s Military Diplomacy and Overseas Security Activities,” with Phillip Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies; Kristen Gunness, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation; Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute; Jeffrey Becker, Research Program director of the Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program at the Center for Naval Analyses; Melodie Ha, management analyst in the Defense Department; April Herlevi, senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses; and Meia Nouwens, research fellow for Chinese defense policy and military modernization at the International Institute for Strategic Studies https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/chinas-military-diplomacy-and-overseas-security-activities

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion: The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the Nuclear Age, with co-editor Scott Sagan, senior fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation; Ankit Panda, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nuclear Policy Program; and Nicholas Miller, associate professor of government at Dartmouth University https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-fragile-balance

10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Albanian Defense Minister Niko Pelesh at the Pentagon

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and the Global Europe Program discussion: “Silicon Lifeline: Western Electronics at the Heart of Russia’s War Machine,” with James Byrne, director of open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies; Gary Somerville, research fellow for open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute; and Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/silicon-lifeline

1:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute virtual discussion: “Achieving Security in the Arctic: the Role of DHS and its Components,” with Deputy Homeland Security Secretary John Tien; Vice Adm. Peter Gautier, deputy commandant for operations at the Coast Guard; Willie Nunn, Region 10 administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency; Robert Hammer, special agent in charge of homeland security investigations at the Homeland Security Department; and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and Fisheries David Balton https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/achieving-security-arctic