Polar Vortex forecast shows winter is ‘heading for the exits’

The Polar Vortex forecast over the next two weeks is showing the weakening that usually leads to a final warming and disappearance of the Polar Vortex until next winter. At the same time, the Polar Vortex shows one sign of being able to deliver one last blast of cold.

Judah Cohen, Climatologist at AER, A Verisk Business, has studied the Polar Vortex and long-range forecast for over 20 years. He says the Polar Vortex is ‘heading for the exits.’ Cohen cautions though that he sees one Polar Vortex condition that could bring one last bout of colder than normal temperatures. Cohen calls this condition a ‘stretching of the Polar Vortex.’ The stretching is slightly indicated by computer modeling to occur over the next two weeks. When Polar Vortex stretching occurs, Cohen says cold air can move from Siberia across the North Pole and into eastern Canada.

The forecast below shows the strong Polar Vortex now weakening some by April 1. It also shows the tight circle of the swirling vortex becoming pulled out on two ends, which Cohen calls stretching.

But Cohen cautions this stretching to produce cold has only a 25 percent chance of happening. It’s more likely that the Polar Vortex is on its timeframe to a typical fade-away for summer.

While the Polar Vortex is stronger than normal for the moment, some weakening is also expected in the next two weeks. Cohen expects the Polar Vortex to be dissolved sometime in the first half of April, which is a typical timeframe.

Cohen says that if Polar Vortex stretching did produce some cold over Michigan and the eastern U.S., it wouldn’t be a month of cold. It would be more on the order of one week of cold.

So Cohen definitely thinks winter is heading for the exits. But he thinks the possibility of a Polar Vortex stretching is still significant enough that he can’t say winter is done.

On a note from me, agreed with by Judah Cohen- the various computer models all show no sign of abnormally cold weather at ground level coming to Michigan in the next two weeks. When we talk about the Polar Vortex, it is an upper-air situation that eventually can influence weather here at the ground. So, while the Polar Vortex could look like it can bring cold, the surface weather doesn’t always get in sync with that idea.

Those of you that want winter to be over- the signs point toward it. If you get disappointed with one last blast of winter, it won’t be a long blast.

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