Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (9-8) and Buffalo Bills (13-3) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s wild-card round playoff game at Highmark Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: Miami found something on the ground against Buffalo in their 32-29 loss in Orchard Park on Dec. 17. The Dolphins ran for 188 yards on the Bills’ stout run defense, which was the second-highest total the Dolphins had in a game and second-most the Bills allowed in one this regular season. If only coach Mike McDaniel would’ve stuck with the ground game longer and in more short-yardage situations that Saturday night.
The only problem is Raheem Mostert, who had 136 of those yards in that game, appears unlikely to play with a severely broken thumb suffered in last week’s win over the New York Jets. On the other hand, backfield mate Jeff Wilson Jr. wasn’t available last time in Buffalo, so now he’ll be able to go. Salvon Ahmed was solid spelling Mostert in that last outing, with six carries for 43 yards and a touchdown. But the availability of left tackle Terron Armstead will be huge in determining if the Dolphins can run against the Bills’ defensive front.
That unit had the league’s fifth-ranked run defense throughout the regular season. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds play a big part in that. Former Dolphin Jordan Phillips is a rotational defensive tackle and has his status in question for Sunday. Edge: Bills
When the Bills run: The Dolphins might just be the top NFL defense against the traditional ground game and stopping opposing running backs, but they are awful against scrambling quarterbacks. And that is always an issue when facing Buffalo and Pro Bowl signal-caller Josh Allen. In the last meeting, Allen ran for 77 yards on 10 carries, constantly extending drives with his legs and adding an extra element Miami has to defend.
The running backs for Buffalo: A pair of South Florida products in Devin Singletary (FAU, American Heritage-Delray High ) and James Cook (Miami Central High). Singletary had 42 yards on 13 carries, and Cook went for 34 yards on five attempts last time. Center Mitch Morse, a Pro Bowl selection, anchors the offensive line.
Christian Wilkins, in leading the Dolphins’ fourth-ranked run defense, has been unblockable. He finished the regular season with 98 tackles, most by any NFL defensive lineman since 1994. The combination of Wilkins and Zach Sieler has been outstanding against the run. Dolphins linebackers will have to be aware of Allen’s scrambling ability, possibly keeping a spy on him. That responsibility could also end up falling on safeties Jevon Holland or Eric Rowe at times. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out due to the concussion protocol on Wednesday. Miami is approaching the early part of the practice week as if third-string rookie Skylar Thompson will be the starter while backup Teddy Bridgewater deals with a dislocated pinky finger on his throwing hand. Thompson started the Dolphins’ playoff-clinching win over the Jets and went without a critical mistake, which was enough as he relied on the defense, run game and clutch leg of kicker Jason Sanders for the 11-6 win.
But simply avoiding mistakes won’t be enough against the Bills. One-hundred fifty-two yards without a touchdown on 20-of-31 passing won’t get it done with Allen on the other side. If Thompson starts again, he’ll have to get Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle more than five targets apiece while continuing to utilize rangy tight end Mike Gesicki, whom he found for four connections and 46 yards, including his long pass of the afternoon for 32 yards. If Bridgewater can elevate himself to start, his veteran presence on the road could give the Dolphins a slightly better shot. Armstead’s availability will be pivotal in protecting the blind side of either quarterback.
The Bills lost future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller earlier in the season, but they still have former University of Miami standout Greg Rousseau at defensive end. The secondary, of course, is headlined by safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre’Davious White. That unit will be playing for Damar Hamlin as he recovers from his frightening cardiac arrest suffered on the field Jan. 2. Dean Marlowe started in place of Hamlin, who was already replacing Michah Hyde, last week against New England. Edge: Bills
When the Bills pass: It’s all about stopping the Pro Bowl combination of Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Allen threw for 35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 4,283 yards, completing 63 percent of passes. Diggs had 108 receptions, 1,428 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022. Then, Miami still has to worry about receivers Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Cole Beasley, tight end Dawson Knox — and Singletary and Cook can catch out of the backfield.
It’s a lot to have to defend, when you also consider Allen is a threat to run after he drops back. Xavien Howard will need to be an elite version of himself against Diggs and not what has been seen in coverage most of this season. He’s had the groin injuries and recent knee issue to deal with. Kader Kohou will have to step up, and Holland will have to play with range and make plays on the back end. Last matchup, Rowe was inactive, and Verone McKinley played significant defensive snaps.
This would be a great time to have the pass rush ignite this defense between Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Melvin Ingram. Left tackle Dion Dawkins will be responsible for protecting Allen’s blindside, but again, it’s important to keep contain on Allen so he doesn’t beat you with his legs. The Dolphins must get him down when they get a shot at him. Edge: Bills
Special teams: Nyheim Hines just had a pair of kickoff return touchdowns in Buffalo’s win over the Patriots that helped Miami get into the postseason. The Dolphins have struggled on kick and punt coverage, so keep an eye on that.
Sanders lifted the Dolphins into the playoffs with his 50-yard field goal with 18 seconds remaining against the Jets. Punter Thomas Morstead has been a plus for an otherwise mostly struggling special teams unit. Bills kicker Tyler Bass has made 27 of 31 field goals. The Dolphins actually had one of their better games on special teams last time in Buffalo, but the Bills have a lot of momentum with their unit after their Week 18 effort. Edge: Bills
Intangibles: It’s the possibility of Hamlin being back on the sideline for Buffalo after being discharged from his hospitalization that just leads one to believe it will be impossible for Miami to go into Highmark Stadium and pull off this upset.
Bills Mafia will have that place rocking, and there will be a lot of emotion invested in this one. At least it’ll be good for a lot of young Dolphins to take in that playoff atmosphere. Edge: Bills
PREDICTION: Bills 30, Dolphins 13
