Former NATO commander says Ukraine needs 500 tanks, not dozens

HOW MANY TANKS? As Germany’s defense minister says a decision will come “soon” on whether Germany will sanction the export of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and Poland asks permission, the debate over whether America’s stubborn refusal to contribute even a token number of its premier M1A2 Abrams tanks heats up.

On social media and cable TV interviews, former U.S. commanders argue the debate over how many and what kind of tanks are best for Ukraine is taking too long given the urgency of the coming Russian spring offensive.

“It’s too slow, and it won’t be enough tanks. Ukraine’s asking for some 300 tanks as a minimum — probably needs 500,” said retired Gen. Wes Clark, a former top NATO commander and now a military analyst for CNN. “We know the Russians are forming up for an offensive. We expect it to come some time on or after the 24th of February. … There’s very serious combat coming in Ukraine. And Ukrainians need this heavy equipment as rapidly as possible.”

GERMANY’S TANK BATTLE RAISES DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER SCHOLZ WANTS RUSSIA TO LOSE

THE CASE FOR ABRAMS: Like several other retired four-stars, Clark argued the Biden administration’s objections to sending M1 Abrams tanks because they are too advanced, run on jet fuel, and require too much maintenance are vastly overstated. “We’ve spent 20 years improving the air separation, air cleaners for the M1A1. So I think there’s a lot of exaggeration about the differences between these two tanks,” said Clark.

“Careful we don’t confuse a political argument with a military view,” tweeted retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a commander in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, in which his American tank divisions animated Russian-made tanks.

“The most effective, battle tested, lethal, and reliable main battle tank in the world is the US M1A2 upgrade. We have 1500. MULTI FUEL. Gas. Diesel. Jet fuel. 265 mile range. 45 MPH,” McCaffrey argued in a Twitter thread. “The US has enormous resources and can respond quickly. We have to get off the dime. … [Ukraine] desperately needs deep strike weapons to hurt the Russians by killing command posts], destroying ammo and fuel, and wrecking artillery. ATACM’s. Armed Drones.”

Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, asked on CNN what he would do if he were at the Pentagon now, said, “Well, I’d send some tanks.”

“I think the Biden administration is right the Leopards are better tanks than Abrams, for logistical and other reasons,” Esper said, adding, “If the key is to send a dozen Abrams to unlock the Germans, get it done — send over a dozen Abrams tanks and allow them, Germany and Poland and Finland and others who have Leopards as well in order to provide to Ukrainians, because look, time is not on our side here.”

OPINION: GERMANY ASIDE, WHY IS BIDEN GETTING A PASS FOR NOT SENDING TANKS TO UKRAINE?

THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING: While Russia is struggling against fierce resistance on the front lines right now, making only meager battlefield gains while suffering heavy casualties, the next phase of the war, under command of Army Gen. Valery Gerasimov is expected to feature better-trained troops who have been held back from the fighting.

“They sent a lot of these people that were hastily mobilized in September, plus convicts. They sent them forward without much training,” said Clark on CNN. “But there was a second element of that mobilization. And there were people that were held back. They were formed into units. The units are going through training now.”

“The Russian military — they’re not stupid. They’ve made serious mistakes. They certainly weren’t 10 feet tall like some of us thought they might be. But they do learn from their experiences,” he said. “And I think we’re going to see a second Russian offensive. And I think the units that come forward are probably going to be better trained — maybe not better equipped but maybe better trained.”

The key to victory for Ukraine is not just tanks but long-range precision strike capability, the ATACMS rockets and drones that can hit deep behind enemy lines, argue military analysts.

“I still think they need ATACMS, long-range precision missiles,” said Esper. “Why? Not to strike deep into Russia but to strike deep into Crimea and knock out those Shahed drone launch points and to knock out other logistics lines of communication and all of the things that they need.”

“Let’s get on with it. Time is not on the Ukrainians’ side.”

RUSSIA SENDING ‘TENS OF THOUSANDS’ OF ‘ILL-TRAINED’ TROOPS AMID UKRAINE LOSSES

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HAPPENING TODAY: Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will brief reporters today at the Pentagon on “priorities for the National Guard in 2023 and beyond.” Watch live at 10:30 a.m. at https://www.defense.gov

SWEDEN’S NATO BID IN QUESTION: A protest in Stockholm over the weekend, in which pro-Kurdish and anti-Turkish demonstrators burned a copy of the Quran near the Turkish Embassy, has infuriated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in response has threatened to block Sweden’s bid for NATO membership.

“Those who allow such blasphemy in front of our embassy can no longer expect our support for their NATO membership,” Erdogan said in remarks following a Cabinet meeting. In recent weeks, Turkey has accused Sweden of not living up to agreements it made last June as a condition for joining the alliance along with Finland.

After Erdogan’s comments, Finland for the first time hinted it may join NATO ahead of Sweden. “We still have to evaluate the situation if it turns out that Sweden’s application is stalling for a long time to come,” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told Finnish broadcaster YLE, according to the Associated Press.

“We have a saying in this country — something can be lawful but awful. I think in this case, what we’ve seen in the context of Sweden falls into that category,” said spokesman Ned Price at the State Department. “But just as the Swedish prime minister said, burning books that are holy to many is a deeply disrespectful act, and he made the point that what is legal is not necessarily appropriate.”

“We are also cognizant of the fact that those who may be behind what has taken place in Sweden may be engaging in an intentional effort to try to weaken unity across the Atlantic and within and among our European allies and partners,” said Price. “We feel that Finland and Sweden are ready to be NATO allies … but ultimately, this is a decision and a consensus that Finland and Sweden are going to have to reach with Turkey.”

ERDOGAN SAYS SWEDEN SHOULD NOT EXPECT TURKEY’S SUPPORT ON NATO BID AFTER ANTI-ISLAM PROTEST

TRUMP WANTED POMPEO ‘DUAL-HATTED’: One of the revelations in former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s new memoir, Never Give an Inch, is an anecdote he recounts from July 2020.

“I was on a flight back from D.C., White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows called me. Mike, Esper is not going to make it, he said. He added that the president told him that he wanted me to dual hat, and take on leading the Department of Defense as an additional duty,” Pompeo wrote. “I told Meadows that I thought that was a nutty idea.”

Asked about it on CNN, Esper said it was the first he heard of the suggestion but added he knew he was on shaky ground after he publicly pushed back against Trump’s desire to use active-duty troops to quell protests in Washington that summer.

“I came out and publicly spoke out against it. I knew that I was on thin ice from that point forward,” said Esper. “My game plan was to get to the election. And fortunately, I was able to do so, and there was not a need to dual hat Mike Pompeo.”

Esper was fired by Trump four months later, right after Trump lost the election to Joe Biden.

A 2ND SOMALIA STRIKE: The U.S. Africa Command said it conducted a “self-defense strike” in a remote area of Somalia yesterday at the request of the Somali government, killing two al Shabab “terrorists.”

The strike northeast of Mogadishu was in support of Somali forces who were battling al Shabab militants northeast of Mogadishu and comes three days after an airstrike in the same region killed as many as 30 al Shabab fighters.

“Somalia National Army forces were engaged in heavy fighting following a complex, extended, intense attack by more than 100 al Shabab fighters,” AFRICOM said in a press release. “The combined actions by partner forces on the ground and the collective self-defense strike is estimated to have resulted in three destroyed vehicles and approximately 30 al Shabab terrorists killed.”

INDUSTRY WATCH: ​The Foundation for Defense of Democracies is out this morning with a report that suggests all the weapons transfers from NATO allies to Ukraine could not only boost foreign military sales from U.S. defense contractors but could also result in a significant upgrade to the capabilities of NATO allies as they divest themselves of old Soviet-era systems, and replace them with top-of-the-line American weapons.

“Replacing the military equipment transferred to Ukraine by the United States’ NATO allies could lead to roughly $21.7 billion in foreign military sales or direct commercial sales for American industry,” according to the number-crunching from FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power. “At the same time, backfilling the weapons these allies have sent to Ukraine with U.S. equipment could improve their capabilities and build a more effective military deterrent while lowering the Pentagon’s cost to procure these weapons.”

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The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Germany says it won’t stop Poland from sending tanks to Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Germany’s tank battle raises doubts about whether Scholz wants Russia to lose

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Germany aside, why is Biden getting a pass for not sending tanks to Ukraine?

Washington Examiner: Russia sending ‘tens of thousands’ of ‘ill-trained’ troops amid Ukraine losses

Washington Examiner: Russia has suffered ‘180,000 dead or wounded soldiers’ in Ukraine, general says

Washington Examiner: Erdogan says Sweden should not expect Turkey’s support on NATO bid after anti-Islam protest

Washington Examiner: UN commissioner accuses Russia of sexually abusing Ukrainian children

Washington Examiner: US, Israel begin large joint military exercise

Washington Examiner: Granholm dismisses fears about refilling oil reserve despite failed pilot effort

Washington Examiner: Air Force sponsors first research center at HBCU

Washington Examiner: Opinion: NDAA needs to tighten national security restrictions on chips made in China

AP: Poland seeks Germany’s permission to send tanks to Ukraine

AP: Lavrov blames West for no Ukraine talks, defends navy drills

AP: A look at Leopard 2 tanks that could soon be sent to Ukraine

Wall Street Journal: Fighting Intensifies In Southern Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Could the Ukraine War Have Ended Just Weeks In?

New York Times: Russia’s War Breathes New Life Into a Cold War Symbol

19fortyfive.com: Does AOC Have a Ukraine Problem?

Washington Times: Speaker Kevin McCarthy Eyes Taiwan Visit This Year In Trip Likely To Anger China

Defense News: US defense industry unprepared for a China fight, says report

Stars and Stripes: Amphibious Warship Constitutes A Key Piece Of Taiwan’s Defense Against Invasion

USNI News: Senator Questions If Allies Would Aid Taiwan In Potential Chinese Invasion

19fortyfive.com: A US-China War over Taiwan: How Bad Could It Get?

19fortyfive.com: China May Provide the Taliban with Blowfish Drones

Washington Post: Turbans or helmets? Indian army purchase revives debate over Sikh headgear.

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Leading Lawmaker: Delay in Replacing Munitions Should be a ‘Flashing Red Light’

Air & Space Forces Magazine: MH-139, Behind Schedule, Now Risks Failing Requirements, DOD Says

Breaking Defense: Marine Corps Buying Valkyrie Drones To Investigate ‘Future Autonomous Platforms’

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US, Israel Kick off Massive Exercise with 142 Aircraft, Satellites, and More

Defense Scoop: Rapid Loss of Talent Contributing to DOD Cyber Shortfalls: Pentagon’s Chief Weapons Tester

AP: Military Probing Whether Cancers Linked to Nuclear Silo Work

Military.com: Court Overturns Ruling That Would Have Given Some Vets Extra GI Bill Money for More School

Yonhap: US House Resolution Calls For Return Of USS Pueblo Seized By N. Korea

Calendar

TUESDAY | JANUARY 24

8:20 a.m. Chantilly, Virginia — National Security Space Association Defense and Intelligence Space Conference, with Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisitions and Integration Frank Calvelli; Space Force Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command; and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence & Security Ronald Moultrie https://www.nssaspace.org/defense-and-intelligence-space-conferenc

9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Japan in 2023,” with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel and Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Koji Tomita https://www.brookings.edu/events/japan-in-2023

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Deputy CIA Director Linda Weissgold and INSA Executive Vice President John Doyon https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation event: “The importance of the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise to the nation’s security,” with Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, and Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton, commander, 20th Air Force, Air Force Global Strike Command https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

10:30 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2D972 — National Guard Bureau Chief Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson and Senior Enlisted Adviser Tony Whitehead brief reporters on priorities for the National Guard in 2023 and beyond. https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “The Iran Threat: What to Expect in 2023,” with Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program; James Phillips, visiting fellow at the Heritage Center for Foreign Policy Studies; and Peter Brookes, senior research fellow at the Heritage Center for National Defense https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/event/the-iran-threat-what-expect-2023

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 25

9 a.m. 400 Courthouse Sq., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Homeland Security Week Conference, with Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Troy Miller https://www.idga.org/events-homelandsecurityweek

9 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Science and Engineering Technology Division breakfast discussion with Ben Petro, director of defense research operations in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering https://www.ndia.org/events

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “How Russia Handles Western Sanctions,” with Polina Ivanova, foreign correspondent, Financial Times https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/25/carnegie-connects

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Challenges to America’s Weapons Supply Chain,” with Lockheed Martin CEO James Taiclet https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/lockheed-martin-ceo

11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion on “DISA’s (Defense Information Systems Agency) Priorities for 2023 and Beyond: An Indepth Look Through the Lens of Agency Leadership,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, DISA director; Stephen Wallace, chief technology officer of DISA; Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. Daniel Krause, DISA senior enlisted adviser; Don Means Jr., director of the DISA Operations and Infrastructure Center; Ryan McArthur, program manager at the Defense Department’s Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability contract; and retired Air Force Command Sgt. David Klink, former DISA senior enlisted adviser https://afceadc.swoogo.com/disa23

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: ”A Global Outlook with Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper,” in discussion with Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/global-outlook-former-secretary-defense-mark-esper

THURSDAY | JANUARY 26

8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor, Maryland — American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics SciTech Forum: “Ignite the Future: Explore the Frontiers of Aerospace,” with Ellen Ebner, director of sustainable technologies, sustainability, and future mobility at Boeing; Jeff Shaknaitis, customer sustainability leader at GE Aviation; and Amanda Simpson, vice president of research and technology at Airbus Americas, participate in a discussion on “Sustainability Leadership: Addressing Industry Developments in Aviation” https://www.aiaa.org/SciTech/registration

9:30 a.m. 406 Dirksen — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing: “China’s Military Diplomacy and Overseas Security Activities,” with Phillip Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies; Kristen Gunness, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation; Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute; Jeffrey Becker, Research Program director of the Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program at the Center for Naval Analyses; Melodie Ha, management analyst in the Defense Department; April Herlevi, senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses; and Meia Nouwens, research fellow for Chinese defense policy and military modernization at the International Institute for Strategic Studies https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/chinas-military-diplomacy-and-overseas-security-activities

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion: The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the Nuclear Age, with co-editor Scott Sagan, senior fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation; Ankit Panda, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nuclear Policy Program; and Nicholas Miller, associate professor of government at Dartmouth University https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-fragile-balance

10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Albanian Defense Minister Niko Pelesh at the Pentagon

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and the Global Europe Program discussion: “Silicon Lifeline: Western Electronics at the Heart of Russia’s War Machine,” with James Byrne, director of open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies; Gary Somerville, research fellow for open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute; and Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/silicon-lifeline

1:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute virtual discussion: “Achieving Security in the Arctic: the Role of DHS and its Components,” with Deputy Homeland Security Secretary John Tien; Vice Adm. Peter Gautier, deputy commandant for operations at the Coast Guard; Willie Nunn, Region 10 administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency; Robert Hammer, special agent in charge of homeland security investigations at the Homeland Security Department; and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and Fisheries David Balton https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/achieving-security-arctic