Forbes Daily: Fallen Unicorns

Good morning,

I’d like to usher you into the weekend with a spot of hopeful news: the possibility of a recession in 2023 is still likely (I’m not one for sugarcoating), but economists say it’s not nearly the sure bet it seemed just months ago.

As my colleague Anthony Tellez reports, a recent survey of the National Association of Business Economists shows that experts believe the likelihood that the U.S. is or will approach a recession is down to 56%. That’s significantly down from the previous survey in which two-thirds of those polled believed a recession was imminent.

I’m not much of a gambling woman, but I still prefer those odds.

We’ll see you back here on Monday morning.

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BREAKING NEWS

The National Archives is reportedly requesting former presidents and vice presidents to review their personal records to ensure they don’t have any sensitive documents after the string of highly publicized discoveries of classified records at the homes of President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence. (Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images).

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani fell out of the world's top five richest people on Friday as he fights allegations of fraud that have sent Adani Group shares plummeting.

BUSINESS + FINANCE

Despite vows of more diversity, TV commercials and digital ads are only getting whiter, a study says. It illustrates how the $330 billion U.S. advertising industry shortchanges Black shoppers and their $1.6 trillion in spending power at its peril.

BuzzFeed stock leapt as much as 203% to a seven-month high Thursday as CEO Jonah Peretti said he looks to transform the media company into the “premier platform for AI-powered content,” including by using OpenAI’s trending ChatGPT technology that recently gained backing from Microsoft.

WEALTH + ENTREPRENEURSHIP

These 44 unicorn founders have lost half their wealth and are nearly $100 billion poorer than a year ago. Twelve are no longer billionaires.

China’s rise to a leading economy in recent decades has been “a huge win for the world,” billionaire Bill Gates said at a forum this week as the Microsoft co-founder added that the U.S. and China currently face “a lose-lose mentality” in their relations that negatively impacts innovation and the global economy.

TECH + INNOVATION

Major tech companies including Google, Meta, TikTok, Twitter and Apple are among what’s thought to be at least a million people, companies, media outlets, governments and other entities owed money by former billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in the wake of its catastrophic collapse, according to a new 115-page creditor matrix published by FTX’s lawyers.

Tesla shares bounced back from multi-year lows, skyrocketing nearly 10% Thursday morning after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported record quarterly sales and profit in a report that largely shattered market expectations. The jump rendered Tesla the best-performing publicly traded company with a market cap over $20 billion.

LIFESTYLE

For airline passengers, 2022 was a year to be remembered for a summer and holiday period shadowed by severe flight delays and cancellations. And while it was still a bumpy ride for carriers, robust travel demand and higher airfares combined to leave most major airlines reporting higher revenue versus pre-pandemic times, despite diminished capacity.

Daily Cover Story

Billionaire Stefan Soloviev On Why He’s Betting $3 Billion On A Casino In Manhattan

TOPLINE Call it a homecoming for billionaire real estate developer Stefan Soloviev. The brash, inked-up 47-year-old has left his $2 billion empire of farmland and railroads in Kansas and Colorado and returned to his childhood stomping grounds of Manhattan in pursuit of one of the country’s most sought-after prizes: one of the three New York City casino licenses the state will soon issue to deep-pocketed developers.

Soloviev’s concept is dubbed Freedom Plaza. The development would feature a 1,000-room hotel, two residential towers, a Ferris wheel, a soccer field, a museum, and a casino with shopping, restaurants, and a concert venue. With it, he’d leave his own mark on the New York City skyline, just as his late father, real estate mogul Sheldon Solow, did.

But he’s far from the only party going after the jackpot. New York’s richest and most powerful developers (including a collaboration between commercial real estate giant SL Green Realty Corp., Jay-Z’s Roc Nation and Caesars Entertainment, plus Related Companies, the developer behind Hudson Yards) have placed their cards on the table in recent months, revealing ambitious plans for Las Vegas-style casinos across the five boroughs. Aside from the tough competition, extra headwinds stem from stark neighborhood opposition; the local community largely doesn’t want a casino at all.

WHY IT MATTERS A Las Vegas-style casino in New York would surely generate billions of dollars in annual revenue and has the opportunity to change the fortunes of the state, says Forbes Staff Writer Will Yakowicz. Official proposals won’t come out for some time, but Forbes provides a sneak peek of some of the bold new proposals.

A Manhattan casino would also further grow gambling culture in the Empire State, which already broke several industry records in 2022 during its first year of legal online sports wagering.

MORE How New Jersey Will Double Down On Gambling If Casinos Come To New York City

FACTS AND COMMENTS

0.1 inches: East Coast cities like Philadelphia and New York City are uncharacteristically still waiting to meet this benchmark of “measurable” snowfall this winter.

38%: Portion of the Amazon rainforest that researchers say has been affected by some form of human disturbance, like forest fires and illegal logging.

“Deadliest corporate crime in U.S. history”: An accusation from the lawyers representing relatives of victims in Boeing’s 737 MAX jet crashes included in a brief filed Wednesday.

STRATEGY AND SUCCESS

If you’re looking to get your taxes filed sooner rather than later, these reads might be right up your alley:

For business owners, here are the ins and outs of effectively using the meal and entertainment deductions this year. Of note, most business meals are now just 50% deductible versus 100% the last couple of years, while other notable updates have also taken effect.

Meanwhile, from the Social Security wage base to your income tax bracket and withholding, these are the numbers all employees should know in 2023 as the IRS modifies procedures in response to inflation.

Video

The M&Ms/Tucker Carlson ‘Woke Candy Debacle’ Explained—And What Mars Inc.’s True Marketing Aims Might Be

QUIZ

While the idea of taking your career wherever you want to go used to be a dream, the pandemic normalized work-from-home arrangements and remote work is more in-demand than ever. Which company landed on FlexJobs’ latest list of top 30 companies with the most work-from-anywhere job listings?

A. Cash App

B. Kraken

C. Wikimedia Foundation

D. All of the above

Check if you got it right here.

ACROSS THE NEWSROOM

• Keep up-to-date on the latest news on young risk takers with the Forbes Under 30 newsletter, sent to your inbox each Friday by my colleague Olivia Peluso. We invite you to sign up here.

BEYOND THE NEWSROOM

• Coming up: The 2023 Forbes 30/50 Summit taking place in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on March 7-10. Register here.
• Forbes’ fifth annual AI 50 list is seeking nominations from now through February 10, 2023.
• The Midas List, Forbes’ data-driven ranking of the top 100 private tech investors in the world, is back for a 22nd year. Submissions are open through February 14.

Thanks for reading! Follow along with us on Twitter for by-the-minute updates on the latest business and financial news throughout the day.

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