Online shopping and food retailers are forecast to be the winners this Christmas as consumers keep a tight rein on spending on clothing, homewares and other non-food items.
Total retail spending is expected to rise 4% in December, compared with the same month in 2017, to reach nearly £48bn excluding VAT, according to data from the market research firm Mintel.
Food sales are predicted to rise by 3.3% to £18.6bn, benefiting from a mix of inflation and a fightback by the major supermarkets against grocery discounters such as Aldi and Lidl.
Online sales will rise by more than 14% to £5.6bn, or nearly 12% of all retail spending, as an increasing number of shoppers buy their presents from the sofa, piling further woe on high streets.
Non-food sales are expected to go up by just 1.7% to reach £23.5bn, according to Mintel, well behind inflation, suggesting shoppers will be putting less stuff in their baskets.
The figures signal further bad news for clothing and homeware specialists who are already under pressure as a result of a limp housing market and low consumer confidence linked to the uncertainties of Brexit, alongside rising costs from business rates and the switch to home deliveries.
Marks & Spencer, New Look, Debenhams and House of Fraser are all closing stores as the most recent data from Springboard, which counts shopper numbers, showed high-street footfall down 2% in October – the 11th consecutive month of decline.
Mild winter weather is also adding to clothing chains’ difficulties, with John Lewis reporting an 11% slump in its clothing and homeware departments in the week to 10 November.
The independent retail analyst Richard Hyman said trading had been awful across the high street in recent weeks as the mild weather combined with a lull in trading for retailers that were not participating in early Black Friday discounting.
“In 35 years, I have never known a Christmas trading period out of step with the preceding months. I said at the outset, this year has been the most challenging we have seen.
“Festive trading in 2017 and 2016 were both relatively positive, so the [comparative figures] are quite demanding [to beat].”
He expected Christmas to be “not a disaster but not enough to rescue the growing number of weaker players finding the intensity of trade and pace of change too quick”.
But Richard Perks, the director of retail research at Mintel, said high-street operators could breathe a sigh of relief that sales growth would continue.
“While there’s been much talk of how the high street is being undermined by online retailing, it still only represents a relatively small part of overall retail sales, with most shopping still taking place in physical stores.”
He blamed clothing retailers’ difficulties on their failure to keep up with changing consumer demands.
“Many of the clothing retailers have performed badly in the face of competition from online players. While plenty of clothing retailers have performed well (TK Maxx and a raft of smaller ones including Superdry and Seasalt), too many have gone risk averse, rather than realising that, to succeed in the current market, they cannot afford to play it safe,” Perks said.