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(NewsNation) — Former President Donald Trump cemented his place as the GOP frontrunner with a commanding victory in Iowa on Monday and polls indicate that may continue through the rest of the 2024 primary season. However, recent history suggests the outcome in New Hampshire has been a better predictor of the eventual Republican nominee.
Since 2000, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to secure their party’s nomination just over half the time — but that varies between Democrats and the GOP.
For Republicans, the result in Iowa has mattered less in recent races. Former President George W. Bush is the last non-incumbent to win both the Hawkeye State and the GOP nomination. That was 24 years ago.
Meanwhile, the Democratic winner in Iowa has locked up the nomination four out of five times since 2000. President Joe Biden is the sole exception.
In New Hampshire, the party trend is reversed. Since 2000, Bush has been the only GOP candidate to lose the New Hampshire primary but still go on to secure the nomination. In the last three primary races, the Republican winner in the Granite State has become the nominee, including Trump in 2016.
For Democrats, the victor in New Hampshire has secured the nomination just 40% of the time since 2000.
No sitting president in modern U.S. history has lost their party’s nomination to a primary challenger, therefore incumbents were not included in the calculation.
2020
How close was it?
President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign got off to a dismal start. He finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. The outlook was so dire that some commentators thought he should drop out of the race.
Everything changed in South Carolina when the current president won by nearly 30 points. Biden carried that strength into Super Tuesday winning ten out of 14 states. He hit the delegate threshold in June before winning the White House in November.
2016
After failing to win Iowa in 2008, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by less than one-quarter of a percentage point in the 2016 caucus. Sanders reasserted himself with a dominant 22-point win in New Hampshire which kicked off a hotly contested race for the Democratic nomination. Clinton eventually clinched the spot in June, becoming the first woman to lead the presidential ticket of a major party.
Despite leading in national polls, then-Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump lost to Texas Senator Ted Cruz by three points in Iowa. Cruz was unable to repeat his performance in New Hampshire where he finished a distant third (12%) behind Trump (35%) and then-Ohio Governor John Kasich (16%). Trump built on his momentum and won seven out of 11 contests on Super Tuesday before ultimately securing the nomination.
2012
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum defeated former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in what became the closest race in Iowa Caucus history — separated by just 34 votes. Romney answered with a dominant performance in New Hampshire, besting his next-closest competitor by 16 points. A bitter primary fight ensued and went on for several months before Romney eventually clinched the GOP nomination in May with a win in Texas.
2008
How close was it?
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won Iowa with 34% of the vote ahead of Romney (25%) who finished second. The eventual Republican nominee, then-Arizona Senator John McCain, finished fourth in the caucuses before storming back, defeating Romney and Huckabee in New Hampshire. McCain racked up the most states on Super Tuesday and clinched the nomination in early March.
Hillary Clinton was the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination in the summer of 2007 but by early 2008 then-Illinois Senator Barack Obama had started to close the gap. He prevailed over Clinton in Iowa but she came back and won narrowly in New Hampshire. What followed was a protracted primary battle that ended in June with Obama victorious.
2004
How close was it?
National polls showed former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean at the front of the pack in January 2004 but his campaign faltered after finishing third in Iowa behind then-Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and then-North Carolina Senator John Edwards.
Kerry built on his momentum from the caucuses and defeated Dean by more than 12 points in New Hampshire. Edwards picked up a win in South Carolina but it wasn’t enough. Kerry won nine out of 10 states on Super Tuesday and secured the nomination in March.
2000
How close was it?
After leading the GOP field throughout 1999, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush kicked off his presidential campaign with a double-digit win in Iowa. But a week later his frontrunner status appeared to be in jeopardy after Arizona Senator John McCain pulled off a surprising upset in New Hampshire. The two went back and forth until Bush took a commanding lead on Super Tuesday, ultimately securing him the nomination.
Former Vice President Al Gore cruised to victory in Iowa, winning nearly two-thirds of the vote over former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. The final tally was closer in New Hampshire, within five points, but Gore’s hold on the nomination was never really in doubt. He went on to win every primary contest.