Updated VA Hurricane Forecast: NOAA Expects More Storms In 2019

COLLEGE PARK, MD — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that weather researchers now believe there will be more hurricanes in 2019 than previously expected. Which is not what Virginia residents want to here just a few weeks away from Labor Day weekend.

"Current and predicted oceanic and atmospheric conditions now indicate a higher likelihood — a 45 percent chance — of an above normal season — and a reduced likelihood — a 20 percent chance — of below normal activity," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

While only two named storms have formed thus far this year, the peak months of hurricane season run from August through October.

NOAA earlier predicted nine to 15 named storms and two to four major hurricanes this year. The updated hurricane season outlook now predicts 10 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine are expected to become hurricanes. Two to four of those could become major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

"The total number of named storms and hurricanes has increased from the May outlook while the number of major hurricanes stays the same," Bell said. "However, some of those hurricanes and major hurricanes could be longer and stronger than was predicted in May because atmospheric wind patterns are expected to be more hospitable to storm formation."

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government's Ready.gov website.

To keep up with potential storms during hurricane season, bookmark the National Hurricane Center's website. For local weather and severe weather alerts, visit the National Weather Service online.

Bell cautioned that the prediction does not distinguish between storms that make landfall and those that remain at sea.

"Whether or not a storm strikes land is determined by the weather patterns that are in place as the storm approaches, and those weather patterns are generally not predictable until about five to seven days in advance," Bell explained.

The updated hurricane season outlook is based on the latest weather and climate models as well as observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

"The main reason is NOAA is announcing today that the El Nino which has been in place since January has now dissipated," Bell said. "El Nino usually suppresses hurricanes, but now that it's dissipated we're expecting conditions to be more favorable for storm development through the rest of the season."

Bell said related wind patterns often persist after El Nino fades. "These will at least partially offset the more enhancing conditions now in place, although not to the extent we had predicted in May," he said.

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Bell said he does not believe that global warming is to blame for the increased potential for hurricanes.

"The global ocean temperatures have been warming through the last century, certainly the Atlantic has," he explained. "It's really this whole set of atmospheric conditions that we see, and global warming does not produce that set of atmospheric conditions that we see. Global warming actually — for the Atlantic — produces increased wind shear, and that's why they think it could actually reduce the number of storms, but maybe result in fewer, stronger storms."

See also:

• National Hurricane Center Predicts 2-4 Major Hurricanes In 2019
• Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted
• Hurricane Season 2019 Begins; Officials Urge Residents To Prepare

With the peak of hurricane season nearing, State Farm Insurance said it's a good time for homeowners to check in with their insurance agents to review their insurance policies for adequate coverage for their home and property.

Homeowners can protect themselves and their property with a few easy steps:

• Review insurance coverage. Make sure you have the right amount and type of insurance. Remember. renters need to have their own insurance to cover their personal belongings.
• Create a home inventory. Make a list and or take photos and videos of your possessions and their estimated value.
• Protect your property. Stock plywood and materials you may need to board up windows. Move garbage cans and other large objects inside the house or garage. Secure boats and cars.
• Have an evacuation plan. Before the hurricane, decide what you will do. Find out the location of evacuation shelters. If you have a pet, check if the center accepts pets. Determine if you will ride out the storm in your home (if local authorities permit you to stay), or establish a safe place inland. Plan an escape route. Tell relatives where you will be.
• Put together an emergency kit. The kit should include basics such as water, food, first aid supplies, clothing, blankets, and important documents. Store your kit in airtight plastic bags or a plastic storage container with a lid.
• Don't forget to prepare your furry friends: Evacuation Planning for Pet Owners

Here are three top things for homeowners to talk to their insurance agent about before a hurricane hits:

• Appropriate replacement cost coverage
• Deductibles (including hurricane deductibles)
• Flood Insurance

Homeowners are encouraged to make sure they have a good understanding of what their policies cover (both home and auto), and the deductibles and exclusions their policies may include. It is important for homeowners to have the right amount of insurance coverage, so they can recover and rebuild following a storm.

Visit the Landfall Probability website for information on all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Landfall probabilities for regions and counties are adjusted based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season.

The Anne Arundel County Office of Emergency Management has tips to help residents to prepare before hurricanes to minimize damage during this year's season.

Steps that should be taken ahead of time include:

• Build an emergency kit to include at least two weeks' worth of supplies, including stocking up on necessary medications for family members and any pets.
• Create a family communications plan; make sure you know where you would go and how you would get there if you needed to evacuate.
• Clear loose and clogged rain gutters and downspouts.
• Reinforce your garage doors; if wind enters the garage, it can cause dangerous and expensive structural damage.
• Determine how and where to secure your boat.
• If in a high-rise building, be prepared to take shelter on or below the 10th floor.

Story by Patch Editor Paul Scicchitano