For this year’s trade-deadline class of starting pitchers, you very well could prefer the maybes to the definitelys.
That leaves the Yankees, clearly requiring some arms to complete their mission, in the spot of rooting for teams on the bubble to stumble, thereby expanding supply and alleviating demand.
But they have to get to work, too, what with Monday’s start of the amateur draft marking a meaningful milepost in this process. Typically teams pivot to trade mode upon the conclusion of the draft, and with baseball changing its rules this season to mandate all swaps must be completed by July 31, the chatter and action figures to intensify earlier. Already, on Sunday, the Phillies picked up former Met Jay Bruce from the Mariners.
So for now, let’s table discussion of the Nationals’ Max Scherzer, the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard and the Reds’ Tanner Roark, all of whom pitch for win-now clubs that still possess a puncher’s chance of succeeding. Scherzer, under contract through 2021, might not go even if the Nats can’t continue their recent upward tick, and I’ll believe that the Mets will give an impact player to the Yankees when it actually occurs.
Instead, let’s focus on the definitelys, the guys available today for the right price. In compiling my version of the Yankees’ priority list, I factored in expected value, acquisition cost, length of the commitment and personality fit, along with anything else that came to mind.
1. Dallas Keuchel. The free-agent lefty, who no longer will require a compensatory draft pick, seems to be the simplest solution: He’ll cost only money for a Yankees organization that’s rebuilding the top levels of its farm system following a flurry of graduations and trades. Every indication is the 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner — who reportedly is OK with shaving his trademark beard if he joins the Yankees — will be open to a one-year contract. And if the 31-year-old doesn’t fit the Yankees’ prototype of a bat-missing flame-thrower, he sure knows how to pitch. Throw in his durability (145-plus innings each of the prior six years), familiarity level with the American League — especially with his old team, the Astros, who look just as good as the Yankees and then some — and his comfort in the spotlight, and a Keuchel-Yankees marriage makes much sense.
2. Madison Bumgarner. Can you envision the Giants’ gunslinger, owner of three World Series rings and Most Valuable Player of both the Fall Classic and the National League Championship Series in 2014, riding into The Bronx, revving up the motor in a pennant race and picking up a fourth ring, this one in pinstripes? What a delightful — and possible — fantasy for Yankees fans. Yet Bumgarner’s inclusion of the Yankees on his no-trade list, as first reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, has to raise a red flag. Throw in some durability concerns, a performance slippage since 2017 and his NL-only experience, and he ranks slightly below Keuchel. The Yankees surely will have a scout watching Tuesday night when Bumgarner faces the Mets at Citi Field.
3. Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays right-hander, a Long Island native, intrigues more than anyone else on this list. He is pitching the best ball of his career, with a 2.84 ERA (and 3.48 FIP) in 76 innings, and he owns a vibrant personality that would, on the surface, equip him for New York. At 28 and not a free agent until the 2020-21 offseason, however, he’ll cost a healthy trove of young talent that the Yankees might not want to surrender.
4. Mike Minor. Yes, the Rangers (30-27) hold the second wild-card spot in the AL, thanks in large part to a career season by the 31-year-old lefty Minor. Nevertheless, Texas still needs more talent to replicate the sort of contention run it posted from 2010 through 2016, so it can’t get blinded by its surprising early success. Even if Minor regresses, his foundation has been solid since returning from shoulder surgery in 2017. He is signed through next year, making nearly $10 million in both 2019 and 2020.
5. Aaron Sanchez. Like Stroman, the right-hander pitches for the rebuilding Blue Jays and will be eligible for free agency after next season. He is younger (26) and less durable (blisters galore) than his teammate. With a 4.91 FIP since 2017, he might not be worth the agita, even if the agita doesn’t cost much.