Lagging Fertility Rate Means Diapers Aren’t Just for Babies Anymore

Disposable diapers came to be in the US around the same time that large numbers of women joined the workforce during World War II and no longer had time to wash the cloth versions. These tiny work savers soon became a staple and for decades were a reliable source of growth for some of the biggest consumer products companies. No longer. The US birthrate has stagnated in recent years, damping the prospects of a business that takes in $5.9 billion a year and had long been considered almost an annuity.

America’s nascent baby bust is a never-seen-before problem for the diaper duopoly of Procter & Gamble Co., which makes Pampers and Luvs, and Huggies maker Kimberly-Clark Corp. To make matters worse, outsize inflation for baby-care items since the pandemic—data from consumer researcher Circana say the retail price of a pack of diapers rose 35% from 2019 to 2023—is forcing some parents to cut back diaper purchases. They’re managing this by switching to reusable options, potty training earlier and even changing kids’ diapers less. These changes are prompting companies to try all sorts of tactics to boost sales, including developing diapers for older kids and persuading parents to keep their children in overnight pants for longer.