S-125s.
Ukraine’s ancient air force with its 125 leftover Soviet warplanes can’t beat the 500 modern fighters and attack planes the Russian air force could mobilize for an invasion of Ukraine.
If and when the Russians cross the border, it might be up to Ukraine’s ground-based air-defenses—alone—to fight back against Moscow’s warplanes.
But Ukraine’s ground-based air-defenses are in only slightly better shape than the country’s air force. That’s a big problem for the Ukrainians as Russian forces build up on the border, possibly in preparation for an invasion in the coming weeks or months.
Kiev inherited from the Soviet Union a significant number of surface-to-air missiles and guns. Thirty years later, these leftovers still form the backbone of Ukraine’s air-defense system.
On paper, the force isn’t insignificant. The Ukrainian army possesses nearly 100 SAM launchers, including a few long-range S-300s, six short-range Tor-Ms and 75 or more Strela-10s, Osa-AKMs and Tunguskas for point-defense. Some army formations travel with Igla shoulder-fired SAMs and ZU-23 air-defense guns.
The air force has its own SAMs, including 10 brigades and regiments with potentially a hundred or more launchers for S-300s, plus 72 Buk-M1s and a few short-range S-125s.
This arsenal could grow, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies explained in the latest edition of its annual The Military Balance.
“The air force is prioritizing development of its missile-equipped air-defense forces, primarily through the modernization of Soviet-era equipment,” IISS stated. “There are plans to increase inventory numbers by bringing back into service previously decommissioned assets.”
These might include S-300s, Tors and S-125s as well as medium-range Kubs that aren’t currently in service.
The SAMs and guns are only as useful as the overall air-defense network they’re part of, however. A missile can’t shoot down a plane it can’t see. Ukraine wisely has focused its modernization efforts on radars.
In 2017, Ukroboronprom—Ukraine’s state defense firm—delivered the first new 79K6 surveillance radar. Four years later the air force began operating its first new 80K6KS1, an improved version of the 79K6.
It’s hard to predict just how effective these old missiles and new radars might be against the overwhelming might of the Russian air force. Georgian air-defenders were surprisingly effective against Russian planes during the brief war between Georgia and Russia.
But that was 13 years ago. The Russian air force today is much better-equipped and better-trained.
It’s clear Ukrainian leaders are worried. Defense minister Oleksii Reznikov flew to Washington, D.C. in mid-November seeking help. A U.S. Senate aide told Air Force Magazine that Reznikov wanted air-defenses in the class of the U.S. Army’s Patriot surface-to-air missile system.
But the urgency of Ukraine’s needs means the United States should focus on providing smaller, easier-to-use air-defenses—such as Stinger shoulder-fired missiles—as fast as possible. “I would be worried about the next two months and getting everything we can that can make a difference,” the aide said.
