The United States and its allies must impose new sanctions on Russia if, as is likely, it is found to be responsible for the outrageous attack on Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka dam.
The dam, along a southern part of Ukraine’s bisecting Dnieper River, was targeted by a series of explosions early on Tuesday morning. These led to a massive rupture of the dam wall. Ensuing flooding has affected dozens of settlements south of the dam, displacing thousands of civilians. This incident is likely to cause major losses to Ukrainian agricultural interests. It may even endanger the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant by reducing that plant’s access to water with which to cool its reactor.
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Russia is denying culpability for the attack. Still, NBC News is reporting that the U.S. is considering a release of intelligence that points to Russian responsibility. Multiple intelligence sources have told me over a period of months that Russia has taken steps, some actual and some centered only on planning, to prepare so-called false flag attacks on various Ukrainian infrastructure facilities. And as the Washington Examiner’s Mike Brest reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned last October that Russia had mined the dam and might target it.
Top line: This kind of attack on critical civilian infrastructure must not stand.
If Moscow was responsible, its destruction of the dam is likely intended to complicate an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive. By flooding the surrounding areas south of the dam, Russia can complicate a prospective amphibious Ukrainian assault across the Dnieper. The flooding will also prohibit the easy movement of armored vehicles of the kind that Ukraine would use to punch through Russian defenses. Ironically, the dam’s destruction is likely to cause further challenges to the water shortage crisis that has plagued the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. Still, Russia may hope that the flooding will serve as a kind of moat in Crimea’s defense. It is likely that Ukraine wishes to dissect Crimea from its land bridge to other Russian forces in southern Ukraine.
Whether or not Russia’s interest in obstructing Ukraine’s offensive succeeds, Moscow’s disdain for humanitarian concerns cannot go unpunished. Just as the international community has a clear interest in deterring the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, so also does it have a clear interest in preventing the use of civilian infrastructure as tools of war. It is innocent civilians, after all, who will suffer most of what Russia has done here. As with its targeting of civilian hospitals in Syria, Moscow is comfortable targeting civilians to achieve its strategic objectives.
In turn, assuming evidence of Russian guilt is compelling, the international community should look to impose immediate sanctions on Russia’s energy export sector. That sector has largely been shielded by sanctions since the February 2022 start of this war in order to prevent global economic reverberations. The time has now come to reconsider that calculation. Indeed, sanctions action must be considered even where it conflicts with the interest of otherwise friendly nations such as India, which have become significant Russian energy consumers.
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The U.S. and European Union should also suspend efforts to facilitate the transit of Russian energy supplies through trading houses such as Trafigura. And China, which so often claims to seek only “win-win cooperation” and mutual respect with the rest of the world, must be publicly challenged as to where it stands on this incident. After all, by rhetoric and action, China is now Russia’s unabashed key international partner. Beijing must answer whether it supports this act of terrorism or condemns it.
Top line: This targeting of a civilian dam represents an obvious breach of the laws of war. If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government is to blame, it must learn that such actions carry far higher penalties than they offer prizes. If not, Moscow will have little reason to avoid future outrages of a similar kind.
