Sorry, Turkey is staying in NATO

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Turkey is the red-headed step-child of NATO. With a history of military coups, a penchant for internal crackdowns on dissent, and a big nationalist streak, the Mediterranean power’s internal politics have always been complicated. This is certainly the case with current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who not only has a habit of bucking the West’s preferences but is perfectly fine with throwing sand into the gears of NATO’S decision-making process.

Technically, Turkey is a U.S. ally by the sheer fact that it’s one of the oldest members of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Practically speaking, however, it is often a difficult, inscrutable partner. The Turks don’t take orders from Washington and Brussels, and they aren’t necessarily chomping at the bit to placate their fellow NATO members when a dispute arises. And they want everyone to know it. Whether it’s Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, an unwillingness to sanction Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, periodic military operations against the Syrian Kurds, or the blocking of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership bids, more U.S. defense analysts are questioning whether the Turks should even be in NATO at all.

BIDEN MUST PROTECT ENES KANTER FREEDOM FROM ERDOGAN’S EVIL

As Tom Rogan wrote in these pages this week, Turkey (as well as Hungary) should be suspended from NATO because its actions don’t comport with its obligations under the alliance’s founding treaty. Kicking Turkey out of NATO has come up repeatedly over the last several years: when Turkish forces invaded northeastern Syria in 2019, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) said expulsion “should be on the table.” Former national security adviser John Bolton had a similar take earlier this month.

Unfortunately, expelling Turkey or any other member from NATO isn’t as straightforward as holding a special meeting, raising your hands, and telling the country in question to pack its bags and leave headquarters. The procedural questions of actually booting a member out aren’t set in stone — in fact, they aren’t set at all. There is nothing in the Washington Treaty stipulating that expulsion is even possible. While NATO’s founding document devotes two articles to the accession of new members, it doesn’t spill any ink on how the alliance writ-large could suspend, let alone expel, a country’s membership. In fact, the only way NATO can lose a member is if a country voluntarily notifies the alliance that it plans to leave. Despite Erdogan’s close economic and political relationship with Russia, there’s no evidence he plans on leaving the alliance anytime soon.

Theoretically, NATO could call a special emergency session to debate the question. But because all decisions within the alliance are taken by consensus, it’s difficult to see such a session as anything more than a public relations exercise meant to embarrass the Turks on the world stage. A rules change is possible to lower the voting threshold of expelling a member for bad conduct, but how exactly would a rules change come about without everyone in the room agreeing to it? There is no “nuclear option” in the bylaws — NATO isn’t like the U.S. Senate.

But let’s assume for a moment that the rules do change and expelling a country suddenly becomes possible. Would Turkey actually be shown the door? Perhaps, but I’m skeptical — not because many NATO members aren’t sick and tired of Erdogan’s games, but because of the precedent it would set for the future. A member who voted to kick Turkey out today could find itself in Turkey’s position in the future. Suddenly, any major problem between members would become a circus, painting the alliance as a circular firing squad. What would normally be hashed out behind closed doors would instead become the geopolitical equivalent of a family airing their dirty laundry in public.

Whether Turkey should continue to be a part of the NATO alliance is a different question, and reasonable people will disagree on the answer. But when one takes the practicalities into account, the question is moot. The fact is Turkey is a part of NATO and will remain so, even if a growing segment of commentators in Washington and European capitals wish otherwise.

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Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.

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