‘Visit China’ Is Now a Harder Sell

There were supposed to be 400 million Chinese traveling this Lunar New Year holiday. Nobody knows how many canceled as a result of the Wuhan coronavirus, but whatever their numbers the economic losses promise to be serious. Smaller, but no less serious, is the number of foreign tourists China had expected this year; in 2019, more than 130 million visitors came from abroad. Although it’s too early to predict how many travelers will see the epidemic as reason to seek an alternative to the Great Wall in 2020, it promises to be significant. In 2003, China saw foreign tourist numbers drop 60% as a result of SARS.

China certainly has more pressing priorities than foreign holiday-makers at the moment. But in time, the loss of those reservations will become an issue that leaders will feel compelled to address, and not just for financial reasons. The Chinese government has long used positive foreign perceptions as a means of legitimizing its rule. If tourists are leaving their home countries to visit China, the thinking goes, China must be doing something right. Similarly, the existence of a large and growing “tourism deficit” — more travelers leaving China than arriving — is a signal that China is failing in its efforts to boost positive perceptions. The Wuhan coronavirus will widen that deficit, with significant consequences for China’s overall trade deficit and its image abroad.