Ahead of any forecasted weather risk, utilities must make decisions on when to secure and mobilize ... [+]
Utilities are in a perilous predicament due to recent extreme weather events, the inherent variability of the atmosphere and subsequent outage fatigue. Not only is this wreaking havoc on grid reliability and load forecasting, but it is also spurring new regulations aimed at the utilities. In July, Connecticut, New York and California passed laws that increase utility oversight and accountability due to prolonged outages.
Interestingly, while weather is the leading cause of power outages in the United States, it is weather—or rather the application of weather analytics – that will help the utility sector better prepare and respond to disruptive weather events.
There are two things at play with recent utility outages. First are the phenomena of extreme weather events. We are used to power outages caused by winter weather. Frigid temperatures and heavy precipitation cause ice and snow buildup bringing down overhead lines and nearby tree branches that would fall on power structures. But now utilities are battling extreme temperatures, increased flooding events, more frequent and intense wildfires, and a more active tropical storm season to keep reliable service delivery to their customers.
Ahead of any forecasted weather risk, utilities must make decisions on when to secure and mobilize outside contractors, optimize staffing for call centers and command posts, pre-position crews and materials in the areas expected to be hardest hit, and restore services as quickly as possible. If utility companies underestimate the risks, then it does not have the resources available for an adequate response. This problem is exacerbated when there are multiple states competing for the same outside contractors to help restore power. This was the case for Tropical Storm Isaias, which left more than 2 million customers without power from North Carolina to Maine.
Since then, utilities may be compelled to overprepare by bringing in extra crews or pre-staging multiple command centers. While this addresses the concern for prolonged outages, it is a great expense for the utilities and their customers, and not a sustainable solution.
These extreme events illustrate the importance of meteorologists going beyond forecasting the weather, but also communicating the risk that the weather event may cause to stakeholders. Utilities that use private weather companies have the advantage of using customized forecasts specific to that company’s assets so the risk to the grid can be communicated down to a certain grid section or geography. This helps the utility monitor and respond quicker, lessening outage duration. Some utilities are using advanced modeling and predictive analytics to fill in specific business intelligence such as what parts of the grid are most vulnerable, how severe will the impact be and where to position resources. And advance weather analytics allow utilities to evaluate individual assets that may be most susceptible to failure in future weather events, resulting in prioritization of capital expenditure to lessen the impact of extreme weather events on infrastructure and customers.
The second factor at play with recent outages is how extreme temperatures affect grid reliability. The most latest – and famous- example of this is the Texas freeze in February. As the temperatures dipped the in the single digits, demand for gas surpassed predicted peak demand and outpaced power generation. This became even more dire when several energy sources, including gas, wind, coal and nuclear, went offline. The same is happening with the extreme temperatures driving up electric demand, especially in states in the Pacific Northwest that are not used to tripe-digits figures.
Here again, weather analytics can play a valuable role in helping utilities forecast demand and supply. Long-range load forecasting helps utilities with future generation planning and risk management, while forecasts can help utilities adjust demand closer to weather events. Some weather companies have created proprietary models and predictive analytics that link demand to weather to further improve energy demand forecasting.
As we are entering another heat dome that will cover the country, as well as tackling wildfires on the West Coast and monitoring tropical storms on the East Coast, I think it is safe to say that the new normal is not normal. Utilities have increasing pressure both from regulatory agencies and nature to reliably continue providing energy to their customers. Weather analytics can and should play a major role in helping them prepare for the next extreme.
