There is nothing clever about flogging a dead horse, yet last week the Home Secretary stood before Parliament and did exactly that with promises of “robust action” to deliver “the biggest-ever reduction in net migration” to the UK.

James Cleverly said his five-point plan will tackle supposed immigration abuses among those who legally come to the UK to work or study, but he couldn’t resist the temptation of rounding off his 10-minute statement with reference to the Tory totem of “stopping the boats” of asylum seekers crossing the English Channel.

It was a poor attempt at a psychological trick to link two disparate groups as the Conservatives scramble to shore up their support ahead of the next general election which some believe could take place this spring. Mr Cleverly was keen to highlight the 153,000 visas issued to relatives of sponsored students in the UK during the year to the end of September, as well as the 120,000 dependents accompanying 100,000 care workers coming to these shores. His party’s attempts to reduce those inflows are more likely to succeed than botched efforts at clamping down on small boat crossings, but “winning” the battle on legal immigration risks losing the war to revive business activity and bring inflation under control.

The UK economy is on a knife edge, with experts at accountancy group RSM predicting just 0.5% growth in GDP for the whole of 2024. One of the main headwinds is the number of people in employment, which remains below pre-pandemic levels despite the population increasing by almost 300,000.

This compares unfavourably to the Eurozone where employment is almost 3% higher than prior to the outbreak of Covid, and the US where it’s up by roughly 1.5%. Achieving significant economic growth in the UK will difficult - potentially impossible - if businesses can’t get the workers they need.

READ MORE: Cleverly pledges ‘biggest ever reduction’ in net migration with new plans

UK Hospitality was among a number of industry groups warning last week that these latest changes to the immigration system, set to come into effect early next year, will further drain a depleted talent pool.

“The government seem to be running out of answers to fix the UK’s long-running labour market shortages,” chief executive Kate Nicholls said. “These changes will further shrink the talent pool that the entire economy will be recruiting from, and only worsen the shortages hospitality businesses are facing.”

There is a scarcity of workers across virtually all sectors that is continuing to drive up wages and salaries even though business activity is slowing. This home-grown inflation will make it difficult to further reduce the headline Consumer Price Index reading of 4.7% for October, which fell from a 41-year high of 11.1% a year earlier thanks in most part to baseline effects and easing global commodity prices.

Figures due out today from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) may provide further clarity on the state of the UK labour market, though changes to sampling and methodology have created some uncertainty around the official data. However, any weakening in employment must be viewed in the context of coming off one of the tightest labour markets in living memory.

READ MORE: Business activity in Scotland falls with investments on hold

Last week the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) reported a reduction in hiring during November as the weak economic environment weighed on activity. As a result, starting salary inflation fell to a 32-month low and that of temporary pay to a 33-month low.

That said, the increase in permanent starters’ pay remained “sharp” with competition for suitably-skilled staff continuing to push up wages overall.

“For policy makers, any return to growth will put strain on a labour market with embedded shortages – this week’s pro-election rather than pro-economy decision on immigration will exacerbate that,” REC chief executive Neil Carberry warned.

“Any return to growth could drive domestically-generated inflation unless we adopt a proper plan for workforce capacity, embracing better welfare-to-work support, finally reforming the Apprenticeship Levy, funding further education properly and the kind of support for school leavers suggested [in the] Broken Ladders report from EDSK and REED on the school-to-work transition.”

The REC also noted a divergence in trends across various regions and countries in the UK, as has been the case in Scotland.

The latest monthly jobs report from the Royal Bank of Scotland found that the recent decline in hiring activity across Scotland came to an end in November to defy the trend elsewhere in the UK, though whether this can be maintained is questionable as vacancies continued to fall. There was also a steep rise in permanent starting salaries, while growth in temporary wages also remained stronger than average.

READ MORE: Scotland bucks UK trend with increase in job appointments

This despite the fact that private sector business activity in Scotland remains firmly in negative territory, as reflected in yesterday’s PMI report from Royal Bank. The Fraser of Allander Institute has similarly found that Scottish companies face persistent recruitment challenges and are increasingly concerned about retaining staff even though many are curtailing overall investment as the economy deteriorates.

Under the new rules announced by Mr Cleverly, immigrants will from the spring have to earn a minimum of £38,700 to get a skilled worker visa, up from £26,200 now. Health and social care, which are highly reliant on immigrant staff, will be exempt from the salary rule but will no longer be able to bring dependent relatives with them.

Starting in January, most foreign graduate students will also no longer be able to bring family members to the UK.

When it comes to immigration, asylum seekers are far more divisive than the academics and skilled workers who are broadly welcomed by the voting public. Mr Cleverly knows that, which explains the psychological sleight of hand in lumping them all together into one invading horde.

READ MORE: Firms keep hiring despite downturn in business activity

Brexit came about as a result of efforts by former Prime Minister David Cameron – now known as Lord Cameron in his new role as Foreign Secretary – to keep control of his party and bring an end to divisions on the UK’s membership in the European Union. He lost the vote in 2016 leaving no other choice than to resign.

Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is similarly trying to stabilise his faltering government, with the anti-immigration push a major plank in that strategy. It’s difficult to imagine he and Mr Cleverly truly believe their clampdown on legal immigration will yield economic benefits when all evidence points to the contrary, but it wouldn’t be the first time economic logic is sacrificed in the political trenches.