2021 PA Voter Registration Trends Not Good For GOP

PENNSYLVANIA — Fraught with turmoil, judicial anxieties, violence, and uncertainties which shook democracy to its core, the 2020 election season in Pennsylvania was unlike any other in history.

And the fallout from the events of the past few months is only just beginning to unfold, with repercussions likely to be felt for years to come.

While it's too early to tell exactly what will happen to the Republican Party after President Donald Trump's loss, a glimpse at shifting voter registration patterns provides a glimpse at how the electorate is responding to recent events.

For years now, the GOP has seen a resurgence in voter registration, narrowing the significant gap that still exists with Democrats. This seemingly intensified in 2020, as Republicans made headlines for their canvassing work in the Keystone State that far outstripped the work of Democrats, who pointed to coronavirus-related safety concerns as the reason they did not go door to door.

Just a few months later, all that momentum has shifted.

Since the calendar turned to 2021, 10,452 Republican registrations have switched to Democrat in Pennsylvania, while just 4,942 have switched to Republican. Over 4,400, meanwhile, have moved from Democrat or Republican to another party.

Should this trend hold throughout 2021, it would mark a significant departure from a growing movement in Pennsylvania electoral politics, which has seen Republicans register significantly more new voters, as well as successfully poach more voters from Democrats, for the past decade.

This disparity has been especially notable in presidential election years: in 2016, 113,870 Democrats switched to Republican registration, compared to 47,585 Republicans switching to the Democratic side. In 2020, Republicans out-poached Democrats 81,809 to 49,154. Every single year of the past decade, until this year, Republicans have outperformed Democrats in this category.

It is important to consider that a significant number of Pennsylvanians change their party registration every year, regardless of what's happening. According to a Philadelphia Inquirer analysis covering this same topic, the average yearly exodus from the PA GOP is anywhere from 20 to 33 percent of the total of changes. But this year, the report indicates, the GOP accounts for 64 percent of these changes.

Perhaps the too-easy explanation for these numbers, and for the sudden shift in trends: the riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, which left five dead and hundreds injured.

Of course, there's no way of telling exactly what kind of Republican is leaving the party, beyond the anecdotal sentiments of those in either camp. There's also no way to tell yet exactly what the exodus means for the future of the party.

Trump-backing candidates have already made highly publicized announcements to run for state office in Pennsylvania, including Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale's campaign for governor in 2022.

And none of Trump's controversy in the past four years stopped 74 million people from casting their vote for his re-election, in what was far from a blowout last fall.

Meanwhile, Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, is facing public rebuke and the threat of a censure from Pennsylvania GOP leadership for voting to convict President Trump during his second impeachment trial.

Washington County GOP chair Dave Ball, reacting to Toomey's vote, said: "we did not send him (Toomey) there to vote his conscience. We did not send him there to 'do the right thing,' or whatever."

Full data on Pennsylvania voter registrations is available through the Department of State online.