Julie Bennett
The trouble with most power rankings is that their authors do not define the criteria. Some are based only on what a team has accomplished on the field. Others are based on a projection of their final record irrespective of strength of schedule. Others chase shiny objects, changing each week based on undetermined factors.
So let's get this out of the way. Among handicappers, power rankings are simple. If Team A ranks higher than Team B, Team A should be the betting favorite on a neutral field as of that day. Good gambling power rankings involve months of research and number-crunching, yet can change at a moment's notice due to injury, suspension, coaching drama or a shift in philosophy.
Here are my SEC power rankings as of this week. The numbers in parenthesis represent each team's national rank and what I'd make the season win total if I were setting the Vegas over/under.
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No. 14 Vanderbilt (No. 72, 3.5 wins)
The Commodores need to win a pair of probably-close games in Weeks 1 and 2 because I have them favored just once the rest of the year. Kyle Shurmur is an under-appreciated quarterback who took good care of the ball until the last few games of 2017. But Vandy is bad at the line of scrimmage, allowing 260 rushing yards per game during SEC play last year and failing to reach 75 rushing yards in 7 different games. Losing all-time leading rusher Ralph Webb and WRs Trent Sherfield and C.J. Duncan stings.
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No. 13 Tennessee (No. 61, 5 wins)
No-nonsense new coach Jeremy Pruitt will need patience, because I don't expect a bowl appearance. I project Tennessee as a double-digit underdog in 6 games, and the Vols may have just 3 wins before facing Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt in consecutive weeks to close the season. Much like Florida, a fresh start, a new strength and conditioning program and better injury luck should help. But Butch Jones didn't leave Pruitt with much depth as his recruiting rankings suggest. An offense that averaged 14 points per game in SEC play last season may get more stability at quarterback and offensive line, but that won't be enough.
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No. 12 Arkansas (No. 55, 5 wins)
Arkansas could start 3-0, and gets back-to-back home games vs. Tulsa and Vanderbilt. Outside of that, good luck. Operating with Bret Bielema's personnel won't be as big of a deal for Chad Morris as some would have you believe. The passing game has a chance to be good, and the running backs are solid. But the team's overall talent, depth and speed aren't good enough to win against average SEC teams. An offensive line that became a head-scratching disaster the last 2 years already has incurred major injuries. Can anyone on this re-jiggered 4-3 defense stuff a running back?
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No. 11 Kentucky (No. 48, 5.5 wins)
Expect some boring games. My preseason UK lines feature just 2 games within 8 points (+5.5 vs. South Carolina, -3 at Tennessee). Mark Stoops is 3-11-2 against the spread as a home underdog in Lexington and also went 0-5 ATS as a home favorite last year. The Wildcats have been fortunate to avoid upset losses and finished last year minus-75 yards per game in SEC play despite a 4-4 record. RB Benny Snell is the definition of a bell cow and the defense features NFL talent at every level. But UK team is average at the line of scrimmage and must find a new quarterback, placekicker and punter.
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No. 10 Ole Miss (No. 44, 6 wins)
The Rebels' schedule features three automatic home wins and three winnable games away from Oxford (vs. Texas Tech, at Arkansas, at Vanderbilt). I also project Ole Miss as a short underdog vs. South Carolina, making another 6-win season very plausible. QB Jordan Ta'amu, WR A.J. Brown and others can dismantle opposing secondaries. But last year's run defense was embarrassing, and there's not much optimism that it will improve. Plus, NCAA sanctions and transfers have sapped team depth, which could mean trouble over the course of an SEC season.
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No. 9 Missouri (No. 35, 7 wins)
I project half of Missouri's regular-season games to feature one-possession margins. QB Drew Lock, one of the nation's most underrated offensive lines and an impressive group of receivers are capable of scalding almost any secondary. That's assuming that coordinator Derek Dooley isn't a major drop-off from Josh Heupel, and that a less breakneck tempo doesn't derail the explosiveness. Depth at defensive end, safety and cornerback is concerning. Missouri finished 0-6 against teams with winning records last year. That's extreme but not new for the Tigers with Lock at QB.
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No. 8 Texas A&M (No. 28, 6.5 wins)
Texas A&M did not fork out $75 million over 10 years to steal Jimbo Fisher from Florida State just to finish in the bottom half of the SEC West. But that's a distinct possibility this year as I favor the Aggies in just 7 of 12 games. Fisher's welcome present: Games against Clemson and Alabama in September, and three consecutive road games against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn. The defensive front-7 should finally be good under hot new coordinator Mike Elko. Texas A&M features a pair of capable QBs but the o-line is a liability.
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No. 7 LSU (No. 27, 6.5 wins)
It's hard to find more than 25 teams that should be favored over LSU. But the schedule is B-R-U-T-A-L. LSU faces seven teams ranked in my preseason top 30. Fall a little short of expectations and LSU could need to beat Texas A&M in the regular-season finale just to make a bowl. The defense, led by coordinator Dave Aranda, LB Devin White and CB Greedy Williams, has a chance to be a Top 10 unit nationally. But Orgeron may regret the saga with now-former offensive coordinator Matt Canada, and will need to rely on - gulp - the passing game.
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No. 6 Florida (No. 21, 8 wins)
My preseason handicapping favors Florida in 9 of 12 games, with just 1 double-digit underdog spot (+10.5 vs. Georgia) and five games with single-digit margins. Replacing an ineffective strength and conditioning program should cut down on injuries and help fortify the Gators' linemen. Ole Miss transfer WR Van Jefferson and a healthy backfield give Florida and new coach Dan Mullen an impressive collection of skill players. Run defense against good teams is a concern, and the Gators are a year away from above-average FBS quarterback play.
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No. 5 South Carolina (No. 20, 8 wins)
Will Muschamp as a head coach has been good, even great, as an underdog. As a favorite? To quote Borat, not so much. I project South Carolina as a clear underdog in just two games in 2018 (vs. Georgia, at Clemson), with five other games within six points. Injecting healthy WR/KR Deebo Samuel and promoting a new play-caller for a unit that returns eight starters should lead to Muschamp's best offense in Columbia. But the Gamecocks are still average at best at the line of scrimmage, and Muschamp must stitch together a patchwork secondary.
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No. 4 Mississippi State (No. 16, 8.5 wins)
I project the Bulldogs as favorites in 10 of 12 games, with four by a margin of a touchdown or less. If you geek out for big uglies at the line of scrimmage, you should love this team. DT Jeffery Simmons and DE Montez Sweat spearhead one of the nation's 10 best defensive lines and the Bulldogs have a mauling o-line. Question marks include whether QB Nick Fitzgerald (ankle) can make a complete recovery, if the passing game will exist at all and whether new defensive coordinator Bob Shoop can match the outstanding job that Todd Grantham did last year.
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No. 3 Auburn (No. 10, 8.5 wins)
A fringe Top 10 team nationally in terms of my power rankings, I think Auburn will lose three, maybe four games. That's the price of even-year road trips to Athens and Tuscaloosa. Clemson enters the season with the most impressive collection of defensive line talent, but Auburn is close. QB Jarrett Stidham should have a big year. My biggest question mark is whether a re-tooled offensive line and an unproven backfield can sustain the Tigers' effective running game.
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No. 2 Georgia (No. 3, 10.5 wins)
Georgia is a favorite in all 12 of its games this year, with just three of those within 10 points: vs. Auburn (-4.5), at LSU (-9.5) and at South Carolina (-10). UGA will evolve from a roster loaded with top-end stars to a more faceless two-deep filled with as much raw talent as any team in the country. This could be UGA's best offense in a decade, and even stopping the Bulldogs' rushing offense (easier said than done) no longer is enough to win. Depth and youth at linebacker and defensive back could be the team's biggest "concern." Playing in the SEC East remains an advantage.
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No. 1 Alabama (No. 1, 11 wins)
Alabama will be a double-digit favorite in 11 of 12 games, and I made the Tide a 7.5-point favorite against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The team must replace its starting receivers, starting defensive backs, and offensive and defensive coordinators. The defense may "only" be Top 10 nationally, and could slide a few more spots if ILBs Mack Wilson or Dylan Moses get injured. Don't expect Nick Saban to suddenly open up the offense unless the team gets threatened, but Bama is talented enough to get aggressive with success in close games. There shouldn't be many of those.
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