Best-Case Scenario: August Peak For Coronavirus In Cook County

COOK COUNTY, IL — If severe control measures including strict social distancing are not put in place, coronavirus infections could top 1 million in Cook County by early May — 21 percent or more of the population. Cook is Illinois' hardest-hit county, with 18 of the state's 26 deaths.

That's the conclusion of Columbia University researchers as reported by the New York Times, which compiled maps showing the estimated spread of the virus in every county in America under varying scenarios for control measures.

Under the best-case scenario, including strict imposition of measures like closing schools, banning mass gatherings, and testing and quarantining sick people and their contacts, the peak of infection could be pushed past July 31, with as few as 41,000 cases — just 0.8 percent of the Cook County population.

Illinois Coronavirus Update: 26 Deaths, Nearly 2,600 Cases

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In a scenario falling somewhere between these two extremes, the number of infections could top 590,000 by the middle of June, about 11 percent of the population, the researchers concluded.

Across Illinois control measures have already been implemented on the state and local level. Gov. J.B. Pritzker's stay-at-home executive order went into effect Saturday afternoon. Pritzker said issuing the order was the "inescapable conclusion" based on projected infection rates from infectious disease experts — including estimations that project as many as 3,400 Illinois coronavirus cases by next week.

"I don't come to this decision easily," Pritzker said. "I fully recognize that in some cases, I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods. But ultimately you can't have a livelihood if you don't have your life."

The governor echoed that sentiment this week, saying while economic woes caused by the stay-at-home order keep him up at night, "We can revive our economy. We can't revive the people who are lost to this virus."

Pritzker also said he is not willing to risk the lives of the elderly or immunocompromised — the most vulnerable populations when it comes to coronavirus — to bolster the economy.

"I'm not willing to sacrifice anyone," he said. "There is no life in this state that is more or less worthy of saving. I want grandparents around to help raise their grandchildren. I want people to spend years after this is over, celebrating birthdays and wedding anniversaries and healthy retirements. I want Illinois to continue to be enriched by its young and old residents alike. Our economic strength comes from our diversity in this state, and the hard won experiences of our citizens without that we are nothing with it. There is nothing that we cannot overcome."

But social distancing in the U.S. isn't as easy as telling everyone to stay home, said Mary Travis Bassett, director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University.

"The United States has particular vulnerabilities that make it possible that we'll have the worse coronavirus epidemic of all," Bassett said, citing the country's health, economic and social inequalities.

"These inequalities ... mean that we are both more susceptible and more likely to have people who are not going to follow the public health advice of social distancing, hand-washing and seeking prompt medical care because they risk their livelihood," Bassett said.

She added that many low-wage workers in the health care sector can't afford to miss a day of pay or take a sick day.

"The infusion of financial support to people who are no longer working is absolutely critical," Bassett said. "People are not going to stay home and not feed their families."

Schools are closed and may remain closed past the planned April 8 date, according to the governor. The stay-at-home order directs all non-essential businesses and not-for-profit entities in Illinois to prohibit all in-person functions as strictly as possible. Non-essential public community gatherings of individuals of any size for any reason are canceled.