The 2024 Senate map is beginning to take shape, offering hope to Republicans as the party seeks to revive itself from a lackluster midterm performance and gain control of the White House and Senate.
There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans. The circumstances put Republicans in a strong position to flip some crucial Senate seats that could easily shift the balance of power in the upper chamber.
DEMOCRATS ON DEFENSE AS 2024 SENATE MAP BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
Republicans are entering the political playfield with a slim majority in the House and only a slight deficit in the Senate. As a result, Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party only needs to secure two extra Senate seats.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report released its first race ratings for the 2024 Senate playing field, with just three states rated as toss-ups, including Arizona, West Virginia, and Ohio. All three are held by Democrats, with the exception of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who announced in December she’d be leaving the party.
Those ratings put Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in tight positions, as the two Democratic incumbents will need to defend their seats in states that former President Donald Trump won by 39 and 8 percentage points in 2020, respectively.
Democrats must also defend five other seats the Cook Political Report has rated as “lean Democratic,” including Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Three of those — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are also key presidential battleground states that President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020 after flipping them to blue.
Montana is also likely to be a close race as Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) seeks reelection in the reliably red state Biden lost by 16 points in 2020. However, the Democratic incumbent benefits from a 60% approval rating and has handily been reelected twice since taking office in 2007.
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Elsewhere on the 2024 map, there are 15 seats considered “solid Democrat,” including California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.
Another 10 seats are considered “solid Republican,” including Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and both seats in Nebraska. One Senate seat, held by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), is considered “likely Republican.”
