By all accounts, the second surge of this coronavirus has arrived.
The daily increases in most COVID-19 data points can only lead to that conclusion.
The statistics tell the disconcerting story:
• The number of COVID-19 patients in Bay State hospitals has more than doubled from a low of 285 over the summer to 659 as of Wednesday. Two weeks ago, there were 393 COVID-19 patients.
• Massachusetts health officials on Wednesday reported 2,495 new coronavirus cases and 37 more deaths. Saturday’s report of 2,200 cases had been the highest case count, which has surpassed 2,000 four days in the past week.
• The 37 new coronavirus deaths and one probable virus death bring the state’s COVID-19 fatality toll to 10,222.
• The seven-day weighted average of the state’s positive test rate, absent higher education institutions, continues to rise, from between 1%-2% at the start of September to 4.79% now.
Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health, said they’re seeing a slow increase in patients. “The trajectory is concerning given the number of cases and the fact that we have a long winter ahead of us,” he told the Boston Herald.
Worcester’s UMass Memorial Medical Center announced on Tuesday that it’s now banning visitors to the University Campus emergency department due to a rise in coronavirus hospitalizations, which has doubled in the past month.
Gov. Charlie Baker on Tuesday said the state is “once again” planning to stand up field hospitals as the number of hospitalizations rise. The state opened field hospitals at the DCU Center in Worcester, the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center in the Seaport, Joint Base Cape Cod and the UMass Lowell’s recreation center during the spring surge.
These troubling coronavirus trends will likely only accelerate as we move into the holiday season, with its traditional gatherings of family and friends.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week advised people to celebrate Thanksgiving outside and with a mask.
“We know that most dangerous settings for COVID transmission are indoor, crowded spaces while people are eating,” said Paul Sax, clinical director of the division of infectious disease at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
The lowest risk Thanksgiving plans include having dinner with members of your household and watching parades and sports from home, according to the CDC.
The only saving grace in this round of the pandemic comes from the accumulated knowledge of treating the disease, combined with ample supplies of personal protective equipment and other related gear.
Jody White, president and CEO of Lowell General Hospital and Circle Health, recently applauded the governor and Health and Human Services Secretary Marylou Sudders, who’s leading the state’s coronavirus response, for their efforts in stockpiling amounts of PPE unlike the state has previously seen, and for coordinating with hospitals to make sure they have the supplies and staffing they’ll need.
It would be irresponsible to downplay the potentially lethal harm this virus poses, just like it would be to dismiss the efficacy of wearing a face covering in public or in other high-risk situations.
However, some surveys of physicians have found that the current iteration of COVID-19 doesn’t pack the initial version’s punch. The fact that the number of deaths — so far — hasn’t kept pace with increasing infections would appear to validate that conclusion.
And in the not too distant future, thanks to the research of biopharmaceutical company Pfizer and immunotherapy firm BioNTech, we might actually have an effective COVID-19 vaccine, though producing it in mass quantities will take some time.
Bottom line: In the meantime, do what you can to contain this virus – social distancing, mask wearing and enhanced hygiene.
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