Douglas Carswell: The government is missing a Brexit back-up plan

What on Earth is going on in Westminster? Vote Leave’s victory last June was supposed to end the Tory civil war, yet various factions are still fighting each other. And, as is so often the case, what is happening is being presented as some sort of soap opera.

Boris Johnson, we are led to believe, is battling it out with Theresa May. The 4,000-word article Mr Johnson wrote about the future of our relations with the Europe, which kicked this episode off, was,  said the pundits, all about his leadership ambition.

The account that emerged – that some in the Cabinet want a Swiss-style Brexit, and that Boris is insisting on the full Monty because a Swiss-style relationship would prevent us signing all those new trade deals he wants – is nonsense.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis have been dubbed the three Brexiteers (Photo: PA)
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis have been dubbed the three Brexiteers (Photo: PA)

No one is objecting to the Swiss model on the grounds that it would preclude us signing trade deals with the rest of the world. It certainly does not prevent the Swiss from signing such deals.

Those who tell us that this is a fight about whether we pay for access to the single market, or remain part of some kind of shadow customs union, miss the point. This row is about preparation. Or rather, a lack of preparation as to what Britain might do in the event that no deal is agreed with the EU.

Over the summer, the Government published position papers indicating what kind of deal the UK would seek with the EU. Far from division, there is unanimity on the Tory benches over this. Pretty much everyone accepts that we cannot remain in the single market, or sign up to free movement of people.

But the Government can only decide what kind of deal it would like to offer the EU – we cannot force them to accept it. The real question therefore becomes what happens if (or when) the EU says “no”.

No matter how reasonable we might be, the obstinacy we saw this summer from Michel Barnier is a sign of what is to come. What then?

Undiplomatic language: Brexit Secretary David Davis (left) accused EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier of looking silly
Undiplomatic language: Brexit Secretary David Davis (left) accused EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier of looking silly

Theresa May was right to insist that no deal is better than a bad deal. But if that is the Government’s position, why have Ministers done so little to prepare for the no-deal scenario? If you trigger a time-limited process to come to an agreement, and then delay making the necessary arrangements in case you fail to reach an agreement, you inevitably put yourself under pressure to take whatever offer is on the table.

The EU understands this. Recent Westminster shenanigans suggest that one or two ministers realise this – and recognise that we need to act fast to prevent it.

Ministers must imagine the worst-case scenario in March 2019: no deal on anything – driving licenses no longer valid outside the UK, planes unable to fly, goods unable to flow freely. Then they must begin working out all the legal and technical arrangements we need to put in place to avoid that scenario.

It also probably means a weekly Brexit meeting of the full Cabinet to oversee putting in place those arrangements.

It means outlining how we intend to use our new-found freedom outside the EU. We need a positive vision of the sort of country we could be. Boris began to do that. We need to hear much more of it.

@DouglasCarswell

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