The arrival of a punishing storm system headed for the Bay Area on Wednesday is prompting emergency declarations and pleas from forecasters and authorities for residents to hunker down for widespread flooding and landslides as well possible power outages.
Effects were already being felt on the eve of the storm, with San Mateo County among multiple municipalities declaring local emergencies, opening up access to outside funding and resources to respond to storm damage and other impacts.
Safety concerns were high enough that the East Bay Regional Park District announced that all 73 of the parks it oversees throughout Alameda and Contra Costa counties will be closed Wednesday and Thursday. And in San Jose, its local emergency declaration comes with evacuation orders for “people living within or along waterways for their safety,” in an apparent effort to get unhoused residents away from rising flood waters.
The prospect of expansive road closures and other disruptions were being treated as certainties by emergency officials, as a “rapidly deepening” low-pressure system coming from Hawaii arrives in the second half of Wednesday, dovetailed by a warm front that will lead to steady rains, according to the National Weather Service.
The opening act will come early Wednesday morning in the form of high winds arriving from the south at speeds of between 30 and 40 mph, which will whip up to 60 mph at higher altitudes. Accordingly, the Bay Area will be under a high-wind warning through 10 a.m. Thursday, accompanied by a flood watch for much of the region.
We are officially under another flood watch.
It's time to get prepared. Visit https://t.co/VVVSP1ASTR for:
💧 Emergency alert apps and websites
💧 Sandbag locations
💧 Reporting spills, blockages or dumping in creeks
💧 Flood safety tips and resources https://t.co/ZA9pv0yAih— valleywater (@valleywater) January 3, 2023
“This is one of the windier storms, if not the windiest storm we’ve seen” this season, said Rick Canepa, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s San Francisco Bay Area station in Monterey.
In a bulletin issued Tuesday, the weather service’s message was dire: “The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillsides collapsing, trees down, widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life.”
The Santa Clara Valley Water District and dozens of local governments across the region have organized sandbag sites for local residents to surround their homes in time for the expected flooding.
During the day Wednesday, light rains are expected to dot the region — primarily in the North Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains — before the warm front is followed by a cool frontal band.
“That contrast in temperature will increase the probability of rain,” Canepa said, adding that predictive models anticipate “six hours of steady rain between Wednesday and Thursday.”
In a vacuum, the predicted storm system would not lead to evacuation advisories and stark predictions. But the region has been soaked by successive atmospheric rivers since last week, leaving saturated soil unable to absorb the coming rains. That excess water will become runoff, swelling creeks and rivers, and pooling in low-lying and flat areas.
Rising water, along with trees rooted in sloshy soil that makes them vulnerable to toppling, threatens to cut off road access, particularly in mountainous areas. Highway 1 near Big Sur was set to be shut down Wednesday following multiple rockslides between Ragged Point and Deetjen’s Inn during last week’s storm, according to Caltrans.
“Being out on the roadways is not recommended unless you have to, for the next couple of days,” Canepa said.
In San Jose, an entire week of storms had officials remembering the infamous President’s Day weekend flooding of 2017. That catastrophe saw Coyote Creek spill out of its banks and submerge several neighborhoods in the central part of the city, marking the city’s worst flood since 1997 and causing an estimated $100 million in damage, the emergency evacuation of 14,000 people, and a flurry of criticism about the city’s preparedness.
Seeking to get ahead of trouble this time around, the emergency directive issued Tuesday evening said the city’s Office of Emergency Management will use “a long-range audio device (LRAD) to communicate the evacuation order from the Central Service Yard” off Senter Road and Phelan Avenue, as well as San Jose police making loudspeaker announcements along Coyote and Penitencia creeks and the Guadalupe River.
“We want to make sure all residents are informed and prepared to stay safe, and that city staff has the ability to move quickly to relocate encampments that are in harm’s way,” newly elected Mayor Matt Mahan said in a statement.
Several cities, including San Jose, Berkeley and San Francisco, are temporarily opening extra shelter beds so people have some refuge.
Among the unhoused residents trying to make do is Robin McLaughlin, 40, who said her home on the banks of Coyote Creek washed away last year amid heavy rains and flooding, and that she moved her current home three times ahead of Wednesday to get ahead of rising water levels.
“There’s not really much you can do out here, other than move further away from the creek,” McLaughlin said. “I’m just hoping it doesn’t get any worse. All we can do is watch how the water moves.”
San Jose Fire Department Chief Robert Sapien said he’s priming his urban search-and-rescue teams for the Wednesday storms, with the frantic swift-water rescues from 2017 at the top of mind.
“We’ll have a fresh crew,” he said.
On the beach in front of the tourist favorite Capitola Village just down the coast from Santa Cruz, workers were using a heavy bulldozer early Tuesday afternoon to build a 5-foot-high berm of sand in front of the 3-foot seawall protecting the commercial district, which sits near sea level.
An expected 20-foot swell plus a 6-foot high tide combine into “the magic number” for potentially breaching the seawall, said Capitola city maintenance worker George Duncan. He gestured toward a thick, 40-foot-long tree trunk at the surf’s edge, saying city officials were especially worried about such debris getting swept into the village and wreaking havoc.
“We’re doing whatever we can,” Duncan said. “We’ll see what it does.”
In the tourist mecca of Capitola Village just down the coast from Santa Cruz, and very close to sea level, city workers Tuesday morning and afternoon built a five-foot sand berm in front of the three-foot seawall protecting the commercial district pic.twitter.com/gSaU16JU9n
— EthanBaron (@ethanbaron) January 3, 2023
In Soquel, just south of Santa Cruz, the central business district was heavily flooded by a raging Soquel Creek over the weekend. Lawyer Samantha Farren, 35, enlisted a crew of a dozen friends and family Tuesday to sandbag her law office and clear out furnishings after the weekend storm sent muddy water surging through the floorboards and a foot-and-a-half up the walls on New Year’s Eve.
Farren, who was raised in Soquel, said she had coveted the quaint cottage as an office since law school, finally moving in four months ago after spending $65,000 on renovations. She celebrated her office opening celebration just nine days before the flood.
“It was like this gigantic dream come true and now it’s a legitimate nightmare,” Farren said.
In general, residents are being advised to make sure their vehicles are gassed up in anticipation of evacuation orders, keep their cell phones charged, and subscribe to local emergency alerts and to prepare for potential power outages.
Tomorrow, Jan 3, is your last day to do storm prep before heavy rain & strong winds arrive Wed-Thu. Here's a list of things to think about. Visit https://t.co/Ae6WOCLusm for more info. #cawx #BayArea pic.twitter.com/pHJOINlLrf
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 3, 2023
The forecasted high wind gusts are also expected to cause trouble for air travel on Wednesday and Thursday.
“It’s almost a near certainty,” NWS meteorologist Ryan Walbrun said. “Quite frankly it’s not even the rain that bothers (San Francisco International Airport), for example, but just the wind direction. Once they get wet runways with strong southeast winds, that alone becomes unfavorable for them.”
When approached for comment, SFO public information officer Doug Yakel directed air travelers to their specific airline for information about potential flight delays or cancelations.
“We always recommend travelers download their airline’s mobile app and sign up for proactive flight notifications to find out about any delays/cancellations before arriving at the airport,” Yakel wrote in an email to Bay Area News Group.
Officials at Norman Y. Mineta San Jose International Airport and Oakland International Airport offered similar advice about anticipating flight disruptions.
“Extreme weather conditions may cause disruption to operations here locally, and/or at connecting airports,” Mineta Airport spokesperson Ana Maria State wrote in a statement, “so passengers should prepare for possible flight delays or cancelations.”
This is a developing story. Check back later for updates.
Staff writers Katie Lauer, Marisa Kendall and Gabriel Greschler contributed to this report.
