The first question isn’t the one everyone’s asking. It’s not who the Miami Dolphins will draft Thursday night with the 21st pick. It’s not if another offensive lineman is the best option or which player could provide the most immediate help.
The question, as always, is this: Do you trust Chris Grier’s offseason?
This is Grier’s sixth year running the show as General Manager, upper-case, the boss in charge. It’s his ninth year running the draft as general manager, lower-case, answering to Mike Tannenbaum.
The Dolphins in that span have had three coaches, an expired three-year plan, an expired five-year plan, 10 first-round picks and still no playoff wins. Zero.
One recent narrative is the Dolphins might have to pause their Super Bowl hopes this season to organize their salary cap after over-spending so much and having the least draft capital of any team in history over a three-year stretch ending this weekend.
That’s rich. Have the Dolphins been a legitimate contender lately to pause that? Can you contend while having a 24-year stretch without a playoff win, the longest drought in the NFL?
The pressing issue this offseason includes following a plan where the Dolphins had a measly eight draft picks (and only one as high as the second round) the previous two years and enter Thursday without a third- and fourth-round pick. They tells you how many draft picks they traded and money they spent buying big stars to win now like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Ramsey and Bradley Chubb.
Only they haven’t won yet. Will they? A perfect draft is needed to help stem the loss of off-season talent as the bill has started coming due for their spending.
Grier can draft players. Go down his drafts. They’re fine. He’s missed some, the way everyone does, and hit some more. But his most proven three picks thus far — Minkah Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil and Christian Wilkins — aren’t with the team anymore in a way that illustrates larger problems.
Wilkins was a dollar decision caused by all this recent overspending. Fitzpatrick, who is on a Hall of Fame path in Pittsburgh, was traded because Grier ceded to coach Brian Flores’s stronger wishes. Tunsil’s trade to Houston might prove to be the most bountiful trade in team history.
Grier created that trade, too. But the larger result all these years later is Houston rebuilt, won a playoff game last season and looks set up to contend for years while the Dolphins used all those picks and still haven’t won anything.
See how the issues go far beyond the non-stop, who-do-they-pick-at-No.-21 question?
Consider: How do they build? What positions do they value? How is this offseason helping last year’s primhttps://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/04/22/chris-perkins-final-2024-nfl-mock-draft-and-the-miami-dolphins-select/e problem of scoring points against good teams? And, always, what quarterback do you invest in — and re-invest in, as the case will be for the Dolphins coming up with Tua Tagovailoa?
There’s also the need for a strong football voice to steer this franchise in proper ways. Look what owner Steve Ross has stepped into in recent years: hiring a coach in Flores who wouldn’t follow the tank-for-tomorrow blueprint; offering Flores money to lose games; publicly lying about the manner of chasing quarterback Deshaun Watson; and the tampering charge in going after Tom Brady that the NFL conflated in reporting the pay-to-lose idea to take away a third-round pick this draft.
Isn’t part of Grier’s and CEO Tom Garfinkel’s job keeping this franchise pointed toward winning? Look at the ways they’ve gone off course in embarrassing manner.
Yes, ’tis the season of mock drafts. Everyone has one. But the real mock draft is of the talent picking the talent — of those organizing and building teams at each franchise.
First, there’s your elite architects whose teams have made Super Bowls and/or challenge every year thanks to their decisions: Kansas City’s Brett Veach; Philadephia’s Howie Roseman; San Francisco’s John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan; Baltimore’s Eric DeCosta; and the Los Angeles Rams’ Les Snead.
Then there’s the mixed-bag, next level from those who made one bold decision to those with good success to those raising the Titanic: Buffalo’s Brandon Beane; Texas’s Nick Caserio; Green Bay’s Brian Gutekunst; Detroit’s Brad Holmes; Cincinnati’s Duke Tobin, Seattle’s John Schneider; Tampa Bay’s Jason Licht and, maybe, Chicago’s Ryan Poles.
The third level is of functional managers who have been around: New Orleans’ Mickey Loomis, Dallas’ Jerry Jones and the Dolphins’ Grier.
That’s where the Dolphins are. It’s not down with those who have done too little or were part of a franchise-strapping deal: the New York Jets’ Joe Douglas; Jacksonville’s Trent Baalke; Cleveland’s Andrew Berry; Atlanta’s Terry Fontenot; Denver’s George Paton; and the New York Giants’ Joe Schoen. (There’s also a too-new-to-rate level from the New England Patriots to the Carolina Panthers).
Grier had a rare chance starting in 2019 when Ross decided not to tank in a way to build this roster and create a sustained contender. Yet they haven’t contended. And there are such pressing decisions coming it’ll demand great work from Grier to sustain anything after this season.
The Dolphins are on the clock for the 21st pick. More than that, isn’t Grier on the clock as this latest, five-year plan continues into a sixth year?
Is midnight striking?
Or are good answers finally coming?
