The date is Feb. 11 — less than one month before the end of the regular season in college basketball — and there is one undeniable fact about Auburn’s NCAA Tournament resume: They have zero Quadrant 1 wins.
That could change any day, of course. In order to get a Quadrant 1 win at home, you need to beat a team in the Top 30 of NET. Washington entered Monday at No. 31. So they could be No. 30 in a couple hours, for all we know.
“That can move depending on how teams go throughout the season,” Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said. “Back when we won it, we thought it would be. Then back at the end of December it wasn’t anywhere close to being a Quadrant 1 win. Now it is. These things are all moving targets depending on how people finish up.”
Auburn is in a very interesting spot as we sit here on Feb. 11. They’re closely paying attention to Washington, the only win they have that even closely resembles a Quad 1 win. For an AU team that at one point was ranked No. 7 in the country, that’s not great.
Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M could theoretically turn into Quadrant 1 wins if they get hot, but that’s wishful thinking.
For now, Auburn is 0-6 against Q1, 6-1 against Q2, 5-0 against Q3, and 4-0 against Q4. Auburn has zero signature wins, and no really bad losses. Their win against Xavier, at the time thought to be good, has been rendered mostly worthless because of how bad Xavier has been this year. Arizona, too, has really fallen off.
But, to Auburn’s credit, the NET loves them. Kenpom loves them. They’re No. 20 in NET, and No. 14 in Kenpom. By that metric, they’d be a No. 4 seed or a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Expert bracketologists have them closer to a No. 7 or No. 8 seed, currently.
This brings up a very interesting question regarding Auburn — one that pits old theory vs. new theory.
Advanced metrics love Auburn because they’re efficient. They crush teams by lots of points when they win. They play a fairly tough schedule. They win games they have to.
The old theory is: Do you need to beat great teams and win on the road to be favored by the NCAA Tournament committee?
Those have always been the most important metrics. And Auburn fails at both of them. One true road win, and only one or two wins against teams projected for March Madness.
The new theory throws a wrench into Auburn’s doom. If the NCAA Tournament committee values metrics more. If it values efficiency and blowing out opponents — Auburn is sitting pretty.
Which way the NCAA Tournament rates Auburn could mean the difference of a No. 5 seed and a No. 10 seed.
Auburn has four of their eight games remaining against teams that would currently qualify for a Quadrant 1 win — at Kentucky, vs. Mississippi State, at Alabama and vs. Tennessee.
The Tigers have put themselves in a position where they’re solidly in the NCAA Tournament picture. But to stay they, they can’t afford many or any bad losses. Losing to Ole Miss at home? Arkansas at home? Vanderbilt on the road? Georgia on the road? Losing one or two of those games could put Auburn on the bubble if they don’t offset it with a big win.
“We pay attention, especially to Quadrant 1 and 2 wins,” Pearl said. “I think those are the one you’ve gotta get. You can’t have bad losses, and you’ve gotta have enough Quadrant 1 and 2 wins.”