Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (8-7) and New England Patriots (7-8) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 17 game at Gillette Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: Miami may look to lean on the run game a little more than it has as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to be available due to another concussion suffered this season. The Dolphins run game looks different than it did the first time they faced the Patriots in the opener. Now, it’s Jeff Wilson complementing Raheem Mostert, instead of Chase Edmonds. They should continue splitting carries after Mostert went for 45 yards on eight attempts and Wilson 37 yards and a touchdown on nine carries against Green Bay.
Left tackle Terron Armstead is now fighting through injuries to four body parts — a toe, pectoral, knee and his hip. The Dolphins have left guard Liam Eichenberg activated off injured reserve and may opt to start him or stick with Robert Jones, who has been serviceable filling in at the position. Fullback Alec Ingold is also working through a thumb ailment.
The Patriots rank ninth in rushing defense at 107.8 yards allowed per game on the ground. They’ve held the Bengals and Raiders under 100 yards rushing in back-to-back games. Inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley is a rock in the middle behind New England’s base three-man front, leading the team with 109 tackles. Strong safety Kyle Dugger is strong in run support, as well. Edge: Patriots
When the Patriots run: Running back Damien Harris hasn’t played since Thanksgiving, and Rhamondre Stevenson has handled the workload since then. The second-year tailback and power runner is a load to bring down at 227 pounds. He has been up and down, but he is capable of going off like he did two weeks ago against the Raiders for 172 yards. He’s 56 yards away from a 1,000-yard season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
Left tackle Trent Brown, right guard Mike Onwenu and center David Andrews are physical blockers that are capable of paving holes in the ground game.
Dolphins defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler lead a run defense that ranks 10th in the NFL and would be much better if it didn’t give up big gains to scrambling quarterbacks. Mac Jones doesn’t present that dual-threat ability for the Patriots. Wilkins has been unblockable with 86 tackles up front for Miami, and inside linebackers Elandon Roberts (93) and Jerome Baker (92) are also vying for the team lead down the final stretch. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: This could be the biggest X-factor in the game: How does backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater handle the offense with Tagovailoa likely out? Bridgewater has shown some chemistry with wide receiver Tyreek Hill when he entered in relief in games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings. Late in that loss to Minnesota, he also connected with tight end Mike Gesicki twice for fourth-quarter touchdowns, providing possible reason to believe a spark could come from the talented pass-catcher.
One thing Bridgewater, the veteran with 64 career starts to his name, will have to do is protect the football. New England ranks third in the league with 25 takeaways. Safety Devin McCourty and cornerback Jonathan Jones are tied for the team lead with three interceptions.
Armstead and right tackle Brandon Shell will have to be sharp protecting the edges with Pro Bowler Matthew Judon (15 1/2 sacks) and former Miami Columbus High standout Josh Uche (11 1/2 sacks) a force rushing the passer. The Patriots are No. 2 in the NFL with 50 sacks. Armstead will now be protecting his quarterback’s blind side, with Bridgewater a more traditional right-hander. Bridgewater just needs manage the game, protect the football and find the occasional chunk play to Hill or Jaylen Waddle. Edge: Even
When the Patriots pass: New England has just 14 passing touchdowns through 15 games. Jones had his early-season carousel with backup Bailey Zappe and has remained the starter since. He could have games like his 23-of-27 performance against the Jets, his 382 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings or last week’s outing against the Bengals where he nearly led a comeback were it not for a Stevenson fumble. But he’s also capable of going 13 of 31, like he did two weeks ago in Las Vegas.
Former Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker remains in concussion protocol leading up to the game. Jakobi Meyers leads New England with 723 receiving yards and four touchdowns, and Stevenson is an active check-down option out of the backfield, leading the team with 62 catches. Open-field tackles against the big tailback will be vital.
New England, ranking 21st in passing offense and with Matt Patricia the offensive play-caller, doesn’t do much to scare opponents through the air. This could be an opportunity for Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard to make a game-changing play when his team needs it most. Or safety Jevon Holland. Or for the pass rush to come to life between Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Melvin Ingram. Chubb has a hand injury stemming from the loss to the Packers. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: The Dolphins have given up a lot of yards in the return game and don’t get many on returns of their own as coordinator Danny Crossman’s unit has struggled all season. A primary example was the first-quarter 93-yard kick return surrendered against the Packers last Sunday. Kicker Jason Sanders had a streak of 12 consecutive field goals made, but missed one in the second half vs. Green Bay.
The Patriots consistently have one of the league’s top special teams units, especially with 10-time Pro Bowl gunner Matthew Slater in the fold. Nick Folk is 30 of 35 on field goals this season and uncharacteristically missed two extra points last time out against the Bengals. Still have to give New England the edge, but if Folk does something like that again, it could flip this the other way. Edge: Patriots
Intangibles: With the last meeting taking place in Week 1, much can be thrown out from that matchup. It’s tough to go into Foxborough with rookie coach Mike McDaniel trying to rally a team on a four-game losing streak against the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, who owns eight Super Bowl rings between time as a head coach and an assistant.
Then there’s the adversity of Tagovailoa suffering another concussion and the Dolphins again having to turn to a backup quarterback. It will be a challenge, but at least the New England weather appears to be favorable for this time of year up north. Edge: Patriots
PREDICTION: Dolphins 20, Patriots 16
