Another NASCAR season fires up when the green flag for the 2020 Daytona 500 drops Sunday. Not only is this NASCAR’s first event each season, it is also stock car racing’s most prestigious event, the Super Bowl of motorsports. “The Great American Race” boasts NASCAR’s biggest prize purse as well as the Harley J. Earl Trophy. Plus the winner is the first to get his playoff ticket punched.
This NASCAR season brings the usual supply of big storylines. Perhaps leading that list is the upcoming retirement of seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson. He has not won in 98 races, by far a career high. A lot for Johnson will hinge on the performance of the new noses on the Chevrolet bodies. That manufacturer and its drivers battled aero issues all season in 2019, and if Chevy can gain headway with the change, it could be in a position to contend for wins. If not, the series figures to again be dominated by the Joe Gibbs, Stewart-Haas and Penske Racing teams.
The 2020 season also brings some of the biggest schedule changes we’ve seen in many years. Among them are a summer doubleheader at Pocono, a Fourth of July weekend race at the Brickyard, the second Daytona race now wrapping up the regular season and the season finale going to Phoenix. Kyle Busch is back to defend his season title and is one of the favorites at 5/1, along with Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick.
This will be the first Daytona 500 since 1988 not run with restrictor plates. The plates have been replaced by an aero package involving tapered spacers, which tend to promote better passing and maneuvering — meaning better racing.
One of the recommended handicapping strategies is to look at the three superspeedway races run with the tapered spacers aero package last year — the summer Daytona race and the two Talladega events. Those winners were Chase Elliott, Justin Haley and Ryan Blaney.
However, leading the way statistically in those races were Joey Logano, for average driver rating and most laps spent in the top 15, and Ryan Newman, for average finish. Newman was first in finish position but 26th in top-15 laps, the ultimate “ride-around” strategy. Elliott, Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski were among the other most advanced drivers statistically in those three events.
Logan, Elliott, Truex, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin all share the favorite tag at William Hill at 10/1. But Daytona has a handicap-ability grade of F on my scale, and the difficulty of statistically handicapping this race shows in the odds. In fact, if there is a single track where underdog betting can prove most lucrative, this is it.
So you might want to consider a driver such as pole-sitter Stenhouse at 20/1 or Busch Clash winner Erik Jones at 30/1. Perhaps statistical leaders Blaney (13/1) and Alex Bowman (20/1) catch your eye, or a feel-good story like Johnson at 22/1. The list of true contenders is longer here than at other tracks, so have fun with it.