The story so far: On May 24, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a “new visa policy” which threatens to restrict visas to Bangladeshis who undermine the democratic election process at home. The notification said the restriction would apply to current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of pro-government and opposition political parties, and members of law enforcement, the judiciary and security services. There were allegations of rigging in elections held in 2014 and 2018, which the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had denied. Bangladesh responded immediately to the U.S. threat, with the government saying it would take steps to prevent any interference in elections. The U.S. is the largest foreign direct investor in Bangladesh followed by Japan and China, according to top official sources in Dhaka.
What does the notification specify?
The new visa policy specifies that actions that undermine the democratic election process include “rigging, voter intimidation, the use of violence to prevent people from exercising their right to freedoms of association and peaceful assembly, and the use of measures designed to prevent political parties, voters, civil society, or the media from disseminating their views.”
What is the status of relations between the U.S. and Bangladesh?
Bangladesh and the U.S. share a strong economic bond despite somewhat icy political relations because of legacy reasons. Washington under President Nixon was not in favour of East Pakistan seeking liberation from West Pakistan, followed by the birth of Bangladesh post-December 16, 1971. This particular issue became accentuated as the government of Sheikh Hasina has modelled itself as the defender of the spirit of 1971, and equates its opponents with those who opposed the creation of Bangladesh. The Hasina government has maintained a distinction between economic and political relations between the two sides. The U.S. is the third largest trading partner of Bangladesh and is the largest recipient of the garments produced in Bangladesh. With China taking a keen interest in Bangladesh, the U.S. feels the need to look beyond trade ties. The importance of the Indo-Pacific strategy also makes Bangladesh politically indispensable for the U.S.
What are some of the other hurdles?
Prime Minister Hasina has followed a policy of zero tolerance against terrorism and extremism since being sworn to power in 2009. She has uprooted insurgents of northeast India who had maintained a base in Bangladesh for decades. That apart, Islamist radicals were also consistently targeted by security agencies especially the RAB (Rapid Action Battalion). Her actions, however, have drawn criticism from various quarters including the U.S., which has accused Bangladesh of violating human rights and for enforcing the disappearance of around 600 individuals. In December 2021, serving and former top officials of the RAB were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department.
Additionally, Bangladesh maintains a neutral policy on the Ukraine crisis, with Ms. Hasina repeatedly arguing against interference in the affairs of sovereign countries. On the ground, multiple projects indicate a strong cooperation between Dhaka and Moscow. Russia is building the first nuclear power project in Rooppur which is expected to be operational later this year. Ms. Hasina has also shown her plan to maintain energy independence and announced in the Qatar Energy Forum earlier this month that her government will purchase energy at a “comfortable” price.
What lies ahead?
Ms. Hasina has emerged as an important regional player because of her strong connection with India. Interestingly, India has not responded to the visa restrictions despite the fact that Bangladesh is the largest trade and security partner of India in South Asia. Moreover, Bangladesh has shown some indication to soften its attitude to the U.S. with its April declaration of the Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO). However, there is no sign that Ms. Hasina would consider a stronger strategic alignment with the U.S. by allowing a naval base for them or by joining the western bloc on Ukraine.
