Is college basketball losing some of its appeal for sports investors? Well, if you like watching the ball go through the hoop, it certainly is becoming less fun to watch.
VSiN touched on this a few weeks ago in a game preview. Offensive efficiency is significantly down this season, according to the publicly posted data at Ken Pomeroy’s market-trusted website (kenpom.com). That’s scoring adjusted for pace. Pomeroy also adjusts for schedule strength. Using this season’s data from midweek in points scored per 100 possessions:
Current 2019-20 leaders: Gonzaga 116.0, Dayton 115.8, Duke 115.2, Iowa 114.9, LSU 114.7.
Final 2018-19 leaders: Gonzaga 124.5, Virginia 123.4, Tennessee 122.7, Purdue 122.5, Michigan State 121.0.
Final 2017-18 leaders: Virginia 127.8, Purdue 122.7, Duke 122.4, Wichita State 121.0, Kansas 120.9.
Gonzaga has maintained “best in the country” status from last season, but is scoring 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions. If you’re concerned about a phenomenon occurring at the top of the ladder not reflecting the sport as a whole, the national midpoints (in the thickest part of the bell curve) were 104.9 two seasons ago and 104.4 last season, but are just 100.5 in 2019-20. It’s as if the rims have shrunk.
The most commonly cited causes for the current decline:
- The NCAA lengthening 3-point distance before the start of the current season. It’s tougher than it used to be to make treys.
- An increasing strategic switch from “crashing the boards” on offense to sending everyone back to play defense when a shot goes up. Teams can improve their overall chances at victory by trading defense for offense. This approach hurts their offensive stats and those of their opponents.
- The long-decried expanding impact of youth basketball programs emphasizing individual scoring at the expense of teamwork that creates open looks for shooters.
Whatever the causes, even the best handicappers and bettors are dealing with what feels like a different sport this season. Here are some tips:
- Don’t assume betting Unders is free money. Betting markets are sophisticated, and they reacted to the new reality fairly quickly, though you may be able to find some individual teams that are still being mispriced. Locally, St. John’s, Fordham, and Marist have skewed Under. Among the AP Top 25, Kansas, Ohio State and Maryland have, as well.
- Deemphasize rebounding in your stat handicapping. You may be “penalizing” teams with poor rebounding differentials that just changed the way they’re winning.
- Bet on lineups with a proven ability to score efficiently, particularly as underdogs. Some hyped favorites may even offer postseason value because so many tournament point spreads are low. Make it a point of emphasis to study offensive execution now for teams you’ll be handicapping through March.
If you’re not enjoying watching college hoops as much as before, remember that cashing tickets is still as much fun as ever.
Get more betting information like this by signing up for VSiN’s free daily newsletter at VSiN.com/newsletter.