Jacinda Ardern is next prime minister of New Zealand, Winston Peters confirms – as it happened

For those coming fresh to the live blog just in time for the (expected) announcement, a quick catch-up.

Twenty-six days ago, on 23 September, New Zealanders went to the polls to choose their next government.

Today, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, which holds the balance of power in a parliament in which no party secured the necessary 61-seat majority, decides who that next government will be.

There are, ostensibly, two options. Peters could side with National, which has been in government since 2008, and return Bill English to the prime ministership. With 56 seats (and 44.4% of the vote), National would comfortably get across the line with the help of NZ First’s nine seats.

Or Peters could sign up with Labour, which has 46 seats but also a pre-arranged alliance with the Greens. Their eight seats, plus NZ First’s nine, would also get the three-party coalition a parliamentary majority.

Or he could do something else entirely. Quite what is difficult to say, but Winston Peters is not a man who likes to do what is expected.

While we wait for Winston Peters, reporters in Wellington seize on any hint of a clue:

Reports from Wellington say NZ First staffers are making their way to the Beehive (the parliament building), adding to the speculation that Peters is about to speak.

This Labour MP (presumably still in the dark too) is not the only one:

That suggestion earlier that the NZ First leader was waiting to crash the 6pm (4pm AEDT/6am BST) TV news bulletins is firming up, with several reports now that Peters is preparing his speech. To say what exactly we still don’t know.

Greens leader James Shaw has told RNZ that his party, Labour and NZ First have many things in common:

• All parties are committed to setting up an independent climate agreement.
• All are sceptical about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
• All are committed to investing in the regions and to regional economic development.
  

Shaw said he had not spoken to Winston Peters in “a while”, adding that he thought the timeframe it has taken for New Zealand to form a government was “normal”.

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And here’s Greens co-leader James Shaw on that meeting this evening of party delegates:

There will be a delegate conference call tonight. The vote will be on our proposed agreement with Labour.

I have no comment on whether NZ First are likely to go with National or Labour.

Meanwhile, the NZ Herald is reporting that Labour is Peters’ first choice.

Anyone would think a heap of horse-trading is going on as the self-imposed deadline approaches (or has passed, depending on whether you believe 5pm has taken us from Peters’ promised afternoon announcement into evening).

The Herald reports that the Green party is holding a meeting of delegates this evening, taken to be a sign that the third party in a potential Labour/NZ First/Green coalition is gearing up for government.

The number of ministerial and cabinet posts is also believed to be an issue in the negotiations between Labour and NZ First, with reportedly fewer posts on the table in the Ardern offer than that proposed by English.

National Business Review is reporting (paywall) that the holdup is down to last-minute disagreements over ministerial positions.

It says NZ First wants five ministerial posts, four of them within the cabinet – and that National is balking at the demand.

NZ First has nine MPs. According to NBR, it wants four of them (Peters himself, deputy Ron Mark, Tracey Martin and Shane Jones) in the cabinet, and Fletcher Tabuteau to get a junior minister post.

A Labour/NZ First/Greens coalition would be an interesting proposition, writes Eleanor Ainge Roy:

Winston Peters has a long-standing dislike of what he views as the “hippy” Green party and this unusual alliance would be viewed by political commentators as somewhat fragile.

There has been much speculation about how 72-year-old Peters will deal with the youth and freshness of Ardern, and how he would take to being her deputy. But there is a chance for him to play the experienced older hand by siding with Labour because of his decades in politics.

After nine years of National government, Peters ran his campaign on a similar theme to Labour: it’s time for change. This is likely to be Peters’ last term in parliament and he would like to go out with a bang – sticking with the status quo of National would not deliver that.

Labour is currently the scrappy underdog – a position Peters has long identified with – and siding with the opposition would be thumbing his nose at the establishment. The NZ First values his political independence (he held his election night party at a small pub in Northland, rather than Auckland or Wellington like the other major parties) and bringing about a major shift in government would appeal to his sense of theatre and fairness.

Labour and NZ First have many policy overlaps: NZ First’s drop in the polls was attributed in part to some of his supporters switching allegiance to Labour after Ardern was elected and “Jacindamania” was born. According to a Colmar Brunton survey earlier in the year, 65% of NZ First voters favoured Labour over National.

Areas of potential agreement

• A drastic cut in immigration: Labour has a cut of up to 30,000 people.
• Exploring a manned re-entry of Pike River mine.
• Taxing bottled water companies taking New Zealand water.
• An increase in the minimum wage: Peters wants it at NZ$20 an hour.
• Moving the Auckland port to Northland and building a reliable rail link between the two (Ardern has said she is open to this).
• Investing in New Zealand workers and training by government-funded study and apprenticeship schemes.
• Keeping the retirement age at 65.
• State support for grandparents who become primary carers for their grandchildren.
• Driver licence training for every secondary school student.
• Raising the student allowance (Labour has committed to increase it by NZ$50 a week).
  

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