Jacinda Ardern is next prime minister of New Zealand, Winston Peters confirms – as it happened

Another clue that it is, perhaps, in one way or another, on:

It must be hard to sneak anywhere when you’re currently the most-watched man in New Zealand …

If Peters chooses National, he’ll be returning to power the party that has governed for nine years. Eleanor Ainge Roy assesses their chances:

Bill English and Winston Peters have worked alongside each other for decades and are said to have a healthy degree of mutual respect.

It has not all been all smooth-sailing. English has described Peters as a “maverick” and frequently joked about his many bottom lines. However, he has said he believes the two parties could form a strong government and have a mutual interest in continuing to grow the economy – the backbone of National’s campaign, and a longstanding interest of Peters, who has harboured ambitions to be finance minister.

English told Radio New Zealand after the election:

People want to continue with the economic direction and they voted for progress. We have yet to secure a mandate to govern … but I think there is a clear indication from voters of continuing the direction National campaigned on.

So what are the elements working in favour of an NZ First/National coalition?

Peters has a long-standing distaste for the Green party and would find it difficult to work with them in a Labour coalition.

English as prime minister is a known quantity and because of his subdued leadership style Peters as potential deputy prime minister would remain the star and showman in government.

A coalition with National would have a greater majority than a Labour-led one and potentially would be more stable as a two- rather than three-party grouping.

And after all, National won the most votes in the election, which may convince Peters to back the party with the biggest numbers.

Areas of potential agreement

• Banning foreign buyers or operating a foreign buyers register.
• Scrapping the Māori seats. (NZ First policy is to hold a referendum to scrap the Māori seats, calling them “tokenism”.)
• Reducing or lowering record-high levels of immigration.
• Not raising the retirement age from 65.

View image in fullscreen

As well as hammering out policy agreements and disagreements, a key factor in building a coalition will be personal: who will Winston Peters and co want to work with?

Before the most recent election campaign, Peters and Bill English were thought to have had a generally good relationship and a mutual respect. But that soured earlier this year, when Peters called on English to resign as prime minister after Todd Barclay, a government MP, resigned amid claims he made illegal tape recordings of a former staff member.

The NZ First leader said at the time:

I don’t believe English is a straight shooter.

But prior to the coalition negotiations, Peters said he and Jacinda Ardern had never had a one-on-one conversation.

Marama Fox, co-leader of the Māori party who – along with the rest of her party – lost her seat in parliament in the election, has run a snap poll on Twitter to gauge which way followers think Peters will go, and it’s as good a guess as any at this point:

Jacinda Ardern’s partner, Clarke Gayford, is on the scene, from which we can divine precisely nothing:

There have been surprisingly few leaks from the coalition negotiations and very little has been given away by party members about the detail of the talks.

In an official statement on Tuesday, Peters said:

We are 98% there on policy issues.

Labour’s deputy leader, Kelvin Davis, had previously said, not very revealingly, that negotiations had been “very nice”.

Eleanor Ainge Roy, our correspondent in New Zealand, is one of those wondering when Peters will show his hand:

Last night Winston Peters released a statement saying he would make an announcement this afternoon on which party he had decided to align himself with.

But as noon has come and gone, New Zealanders are growing increasingly anxious that a decision may be hours, if not days away. Peters has had a 40-minute break to clear his head, and he said the meal had helped him with the decision.

It appears negotiations between NZ First and the major parties are ongoing, with Peters saying new information was still coming in and the situation was changing by the hour.

As it stands, neither of the main party leaders, nor the media nor the New Zealand public know which way Peters will swing, what time this afternoon his announcement will be, and what form it will take.

It is thought that the announcement will be the first that Bill English and Jacinda Ardern will hear of his decision – and they will then be called on to make an appearance.

The lack of information regarding the timeline or format of Peters’ decision is frustrating New Zealanders, some of whom are calling the current situation “bizarre” and “ridiculous”, though there is certainly a humorous element to it as well.

Daylight hours are long in New Zealand with the approach of summer, and Newshub has declared the end of the “afternoon” as sunset at 7.46pm. So we could be in for a long wait yet, though most commentators are predicting Peters will make his announcement close to or at 6pm – in time to be broadcast live on the nightly TV news.

Clever, New Zealand Herald. Let’s hope you don’t have to run this page again tomorrow. Or the day after…

19 Oct 201721.27 EDT

Eleanor de Jong

Over the past nine years of National government, Peters has repeatedly opined on his many “bottom lines” if he were to form a coalition government.

These include:

• Plans to slash migration to 10,000 a year – a drop of more than 60,000.
• A ban on foreigners buying land, and establishment of a foreign ownership register.
• Moving public service jobs out of Wellington to regional areas.
• Holding a referendum on the anti-smacking law.
• Installing New Zealand woollen carpets in all government departments, schools and agencies.