Jacinda Ardern is next prime minister of New Zealand, Winston Peters confirms – as it happened

Peters told reporters that NZ First has been in touch with National and Labour “all the time” since negotiations began post-election.

But he said he had not decided whether to tell English and Ardern what his party choice is before he announces it to the public.

Peters told reporters on his way back to the meeting that he did feel he was closer to making a decision.

In other news, it appears he had Vietnamese pho for his breakfast-lunch.

There is a rather larger than slim chance that Winston Peters is relishing all this attention, of course. Anyway, he seems to have finished his breakfast/lunch. Back to the caucus meeting.

Before taking his meal break, Peters spoke to reporters outside the NZ First caucus meeting. He described it as “a very, very anxious time”:

Our total focus has been on the decision … It is seriously difficult, because, you know, there are pros and cons for every part of this decision we’ve got to make.

We’ve got one more chance to evaluate what it means, both ways.

Let’s be honest, no negotiation ends up perfectly, the way you’d like it. Because if it was the way you liked it, you’d never be in the negotiation in the first place.

We’ll go back [into the meeting] and we’ve got a few hours to go, but we hope to complete it … It is a party decision and the caucus matter most.

The reason why I don’t rule out things is that you never know what might blow in the next couple of hours – that’s the nature of politics … Things change by the hour.

After the counting of special votes on 7 October saw Labour and the Greens add an extra seat each, and docked two from National, Jacinda Ardern said the momentum was now with them to secure a coalition agreement with NZ First:

The final vote tally shows how this election galvanised people to enrol and vote with the highest turnout since 2005.

This reinforces the mandate for negotiations to form a stable, durable and progressive Labour-led government, a government I would be proud to lead.

James Shaw, the co-leader of the Greens, said they would be open to a three-party deal:

With the Green party, Labour and New Zealand First combined, there is now a strong majority for change across our parliament.

Perhaps not very reassuringly, English and Ardern are reported to be as much in the dark about the NZ First choice as the rest of us.

Both National and Labour held caucus meetings earlier today to present updates on talks so far with the kingmaker party.

National said English had set out “the broad parameters of an agreement with New Zealand First”. English himself tweeted that he was:

Looking forward to hearing NZ First’s decision.

Don’t do this to us, Winston Peters. (Also it is lunchtime in Wellington.)

Here’s the statement Winston Peters released yesterday promising an announcement today on … whatever he’s decided:

We will be in a position tomorrow afternoon to make an announcement on the result of negotiations following the 2017 general election.

I have spoken to the leaders of the National party and the Labour party today and, amongst other matters, advised them of this.

While it’s understood that English and Ardern were informed of the upcoming announcement, apparently the two party leaders do not know what Peters’ announcement will be.

English told reporters in Wellington this morning that he did not know which way NZ First would go:

It’s worth bearing in mind that coalition governments have been the norm in New Zealand for the last 20 years.

Since the introduction of MMP (mixed-member proportional representation*) for the 1996 general election, neither National nor Labour has won an outright majority.

Coalitions – of varying degrees of formality – are then formed. The most recent National government had the backing of three smaller parties, including the Māori party, which lost all its seats in the September election.

In current negotiations, Green support for Labour has been pretty much a given, while New Zealand First has found itself playing kingmaker, as it has in the past.

* In a nutshell, New Zealanders are asked to cast two votes: one for a party and one for a candidate for their electorate (constituency). The results are then used to calculate the proportion of seats each party will have in the – usually – 120-seat parliament.

19 Oct 201719.58 EDT

Claire Phipps

Twenty-six days ago, on 23 September, New Zealanders went to the polls to choose their next government.

Today, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, which holds the balance of power in a parliament in which no party secured the necessary 61-seat majority, decides who that next government will be.

There are, ostensibly, two options. Peters could side with National, which has been in government since 2008, and return Bill English to the prime ministership. With 56 seats (and 44.4% of the vote), National would comfortably get across the line with the help of NZ First’s nine seats.

Or Peters could sign up with Labour, which has 46 seats but also a pre-arranged alliance with the Greens. Their eight seats, plus NZ First’s nine, would also get the three-party coalition a parliamentary majority.

Or he could do something else entirely. Quite what is difficult to say, but Winston Peters is not a man who likes to do what is expected. Read more about him here while we all wait for him to take to the stage: