PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 06: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers guards James ... [+]
It's appearing increasingly likely that James Harden will move on from the Brooklyn Nets this offseason.
On Tuesday, Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report reported that "Harden has recently informed several confidants—including former teammates and coaches—of his interest in exploring other opportunities outside of Brooklyn this summer." He can become an unrestricted free agent by declining his $47.4 million player option for the 2022-23 season, although no teams currently project to have enough salary-cap space to sign him outright.
That backdrop is hanging over the Philadelphia 76ers as they weigh whether to deal disgruntled star Ben Simmons before the NBA's Feb. 10 trade deadline.
On Monday, Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic reported "that the 76ers are believed to prefer to wait in order to pursue Harden or another superstar in the offseason and thus want to save Simmons for that potential sign-and-trade rather than take what’s available on the current market." Later that day, sources told Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer that Harden "would welcome playing with Embiid."
To pull off a sign-and-trade for Harden, the Sixers would have to stay under the league's projected $151.6 million tax apron for the entirety of next season. They could pull that off by sending out Simmons and Furkan Korkmaz in the Harden sign-and-trade and either trading or waiving Danny Green, who has a fully non-guaranteed $10 million salary next season.
But both the Sixers and Harden should prefer an opt-in-and-trade instead.
If Harden opts out this summer, his maximum starting salary will be just north of $46.5 million, which is 105 percent of his salary this year ($44.3 million). He'd be eligible for a five-year deal with 8 percent annual raises if he re-signs with the Nets or a four-year deal with 5 percent annual raises if he signs elsewhere in free agency or gets sign-and-traded somewhere.
In total, Harden could sign a five-year, $269.9 million contract with the Nets or a four-year, $200.1 million contract with another team after opting out. He'd be eschewing a $61.4 million salary in 2026-27 by opting out this summer and signing elsewhere.
Harden will be heading into his age-37 season in 2026-27. Unless he continues to play at an MVP level over the next four seasons or the salary cap jumps exponentially, he isn't likely to get that hefty of a salary the next time he hits free agency.
But if he picks up his $47.4 million player option on the condition of being traded to the Sixers or elsewhere, he can maximize his earnings while getting the fresh start he reportedly desires.
If Harden were to sign an extension and then immediately get traded, he could only add two years to his current deal with 5 percent annual raises. He'd have to wait six months after being traded before becoming eligible for his full four-year extension with 8 percent annual raises.
Since his player option ($47.4 million) is higher than his max salary if he opts out ($46.5 million), those 8 percent annual raises would compound over the life of his new contract. He'd earn about $325,000 more via opting in and later signing an extension than he would by declining his player option to become an unrestricted free agent.
The Sixers and/or other interested suitors should prefer that route, too. Unlike with a sign-and-trade, teams wouldn't be hard-capped if they acquire Harden via a normal trade and then extend him six months later.
To acquire Harden this summer after he opted in, a team would have to send out at least $37.8 million in salary. Simmons alone is set to earn $35.4 million next year, so the Sixers could package any of Green ($10.0 million), Korkmaz ($5.0 million) or Georges Niang ($3.5 million) to make the money work.
Rather than losing Green and Korkmaz to stay under the apron with a Harden sign-and-trade, an opt-in-and-trade could allow the Sixers to keep one of the two. They'd also be free to use their $6.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception since they wouldn't be hard-capped. Barring other roster changes, they wouldn’t have enough breathing room under the apron to use the taxpayer MLE if they acquire Harden via sign-and-trade.
When he was running the Houston Rockets, Sixers team president Daryl Morey convinced Chris Paul to go the opt-in-and-trade route when he acquired Paul from the Los Angeles Clippers in 2017. Harden must decide whether to pick up his option by June 29, so he'd have to make sure the Nets were willing to trade him before doing so. The Sixers would also likely need assurances about his willingness to sign the extension six months after the trade.
If Simmons and Korkmaz or Green doesn't seem like an adequate return for Harden from Brooklyn's perspective, consider what other stars have fetched in recent sign-and-trades. The Sixers received only Josh Richardson for Jimmy Butler in 2019, and the Toronto Raptors got only Precious Achiuwa and Goran Dragic for Kyle Lowry this past summer.
The Nets would need to trade Harden before the Feb. 10 trade deadline if they want to maximize their return for him, but they aren't likely to do so. They're currently the title favorites this season, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and they'll likely spend the next five months attempting to convince Harden to stick around long-term.
If Harden does decide he wants to play elsewhere next season, though, an opt-in-and-trade is the best way for him to maximize his earnings and his future team's chances of winning a championship.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.
