All around the world, people are on the move - because of climate change.

They’re displaced - forced to move because of a weather-related event – either fleeing from sudden events or forced to leave an area experiencing gradual change.

It's happening everywhere – but it’s now at the highest rate for a decade. And the data shows it affects people in poorer countries much more than those in wealthier ones.

A Sky News analysis found that weather-related disasters in 2020 led to people in the poorest nations moving almost five times as often as those in richer ones.

In low-income countries each severe weather event caused an average of almost 20,000 displacements last year, compared with 4,000 in the wealthiest nations, our analysis of data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) shows.

In 2020, more than 1,770 weather-related events led to more than 30 million new displacements. This is the highest number since 2010, when 15.5 million displacements in China were recorded as a result of flooding.

The category 4 typhoon Vamco hit the Philippines in November, resulting in 1.6 million displacements. A few weeks earlier, another category 5 storm led to 1.3 million displacements. In total, typhoons, tornadoes and floods in Philippines resulted in 3.9 million displacements.

The Chinese rainy season is said to have caused the worst flooding in more than 20 years between May and July, triggering 3.7 million displacements. Cyclones, typhoons and landslides increased that number to more than five million by the end of the year.

Floods, cyclones, typhoons and landslides in India and Bangladesh led to 8.3 million displacements, the third highest figure since 2012.

And more than a million displacements were triggered by wildfires in the US, where a total of 1.7 million displacements occurred when the figure includes floods, hurricanes and extreme storms.

These five countries (China, Bangladesh, India, Philippines and the US) account for two thirds of all displacements recorded in 2020. But they are also among the most populated places in the world.

Let’s change the map and adjust the number of displacements recorded in each nation to the size of the population. This gives the relative impact that displacements have in each country.

And it shows that small islands like Vanuatu and Fiji in the South Pacific Ocean…

Cuba and countries like Honduras in Central America…

… and Somalia are among the top countries hardest hit by displacements triggered by weather related disasters, per head of population.

It was not unusual that these countries were among the worst hit in 2020. Poor countries tend to have more displacements per event.

In the last decade, the world's poorest regions have recorded on average three times as many annual displacements as the richest nations, even though there have been more severe weather-related events in high-income countries.

Experts say the reason for this, in most cases, is that in wealthier countries people's homes provide better protection from severe weather like storms.

The IDMC's director, Alexandra Bilak, told Sky News settlements are often less dense in richer countries and people live "in better quality housing, so they sustain the shock of the disaster much better than they would in a low or lower-middle income country."

Experts are increasingly confident that many severe weather events or the increasing frequency or variability of extreme weather events can be linked to climate change. In some cases, modellers have been able to calculate that some weather events just would not have occurred if the world had not already warmed by 1.1C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

While there are several drivers of increased displacement and migration, the link to climate has been recognised by the international community: in December 2018 it was addressed in the UN High Commissioner for Refugees' Global Compact on Refugees – later affirmed by an overwhelming majority in the UN General Assembly - which says "climate, environmental degradation and disasters increasingly interact with the drivers of refugee movements".

The number of weather-related disasters is going up. During the 2010s, the world recorded four times the number of disasters registered in the 1970s, data from the International Disaster Database from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters shows.

Worldwide, weather-related disasters have triggered more displacements than conflicts since the IDMC started collecting data in 2008. 

As suggested by our analysis of the data, experts say that the degree to which a country is prone to people being forced to move will depend on many factors, and is not necessarily related to the extent to which each country is being affected by climate change-related weather. 

As well as the quality of the homes and the types of weather people experience, there are a range of complex factors that affect it like a country's vulnerability to shocks – for example levels of deprivation and inequality – and countries' abilities to cope when shocks take place – determined, for example, by the strength of their governance and their ability to mobilise resources. 

While many richer countries have advanced disaster management plans in place, many poorer countries do not. 

But, even though huge amounts of work is going into helping poorer countries cope with the shocks caused by climate change-related weather (and other potential disasters), projections indicate that the number of people forced to leave their homes as a result of climate change will continue to rise. 

World Bank report published in 2018 estimated the number of internal climate migrants could reach more than 143 million by 2050. That is the worst-case scenario. The best-case scenario ranges from 31 to 72 million.

All the experts Sky News spoke to agreed the problem was due to get worse. 

Alexandra Bilak, who also advises the UN Secretary General, said: "Weather-related hazards are only likely to increase in frequency and intensity in the future. And that's not going to change unless… there's a massive reduction in carbon emissions over the coming decades

"And we are likely to see more and more people becoming displaced as a result of weather-related hazards that will become more frequent, more intense.

Save The Children's principal climate change adviser Paul Mitchell added: "There's no doubt the problem will get worse. Regardless of how quickly we move to reduce emissions now, we're locked into significant future impacts purely because the carbon that we're emitting today won't impact for 20, 30 years down the track." 

Vanuatu

Nowhere has been affected by the kind of issues that force people to move after extreme weather in the last year more than Vanuatu.

The archipelago of 83 small islands is mostly volcanic and is probably best known in the UK because of its connections with the late Prince Philip.

Many of the islands have little farmable land and can be steep, so communities can be squeezed into narrow strips of coast and elevated villages can be exposed.

Cyclone Pam, a category 5 hurricane strength tropical storm, was one of the worst disasters to hit Vanuatu

Cyclone Pam, a category 5 hurricane strength tropical storm, was one of the worst disasters to hit Vanuatu

As well as the location of the islands along cyclone paths, people in island countries like Vanuatu are particularly vulnerable because of high levels of poverty and the traditional ways dwellings are often made.

Oxfam's climate and resilience programme manager in Vanuatu, George Koran, was part of a team that helped out in the aftermath of Cyclone Harold's 145mph winds, while much of the world was focused on the pandemic.

Five years after Pam, Cyclone Harold smashed through Vanuatu, flattening the simply made dwellings, like these on the west coast of Espiritu Santo. Pic: Oxfam

Five years after Pam, Cyclone Harold smashed through Vanuatu, flattening the simply made dwellings, like these on the west coast of Espiritu Santo. Pic: Oxfam

Describing what his team on the ground found when they reached affected areas, he told Sky News: "Some people had to hide themselves behind trees, behind rocks, some of them had to go inside empty wells or tanks.

"We had footage of cars being pushed a few kilometres inland.

"Inside the valleys, and those [homes] that were a little bit hidden from the exposure of the wind, were not really that badly damaged, but [for] the communities that were in the pathway of the wind, it was really, really damaging."

Cyclone Harold caused around 80,000 displacements, about 15,000 more than Cyclone Pam in 2015. Pic: Oxfam

Cyclone Harold caused around 80,000 displacements, about 15,000 more than Cyclone Pam in 2015. Pic: Oxfam

As well as an increase in severe storms, Mr Koran says Vanuatu is increasingly having to wrestle with the consequences of a rise in sea level, which experts say is linked to climate change.

One of the communities Mr Koran has visited recently is on Emao island, where a village chief has had to move three times in a few years because of coastal erosion said to be linked to climate change.

Silas Noka, the head of Wiana village, is facing the prospect that his entire community will have to move

Silas Noka, the head of Wiana village, is facing the prospect that his entire community will have to move

Silas Noka, the head of Wiana village on the island, told Sky News through Mr Koran: "At first I thought that this is a normal situation, but by listening to Radio Vanuatu I heard that what I am experiencing... is caused by climate change."

When asked if he thought the climate was changing, he said: "The weather is not the same as before when I was a youth. There are more category 5 cyclones these days. Our seasonal fruits are bearing fruits outside of their normal seasons – these we find... very strange.

The people of Wiana are sad that the bones of their ancestors are being washed into the sea

The people of Wiana are sad that the bones of their ancestors are being washed into the sea

"Now I have to move my house again for the third time. First time... I thought it was a one-off event and that the coastal erosion would stop... Now me and other elders within our community at Wiana are planning to relocate to higher ground.

"It is sad and emotional to see that the graves of our ancestors are being washed away due to coastal erosion happening in our village.

"We are a resilient people, however we need support... In the next 10 to 15 years all the houses in Wiana are sure to be washed away due to sea level rise and coastal erosion.

The dashed red line in this picture shows where the village boundary was just 20 years ago

The dashed red line in this picture shows where the village boundary was just 20 years ago

"There is no adaptation method that will work for us, our only option is to relocate."

It is a problem that is being seen across the Pacific, according to Save The Children's Australia-based Mr Mitchell, who says the impact from the warming of the oceans is not yet fully understood.

Fiji is another Pacific island community that is having to wrestle with the impact of rising sea levels, with some communities already relocating inland

Fiji is another Pacific island community that is having to wrestle with the impact of rising sea levels, with some communities already relocating inland

As well as Vanuatu, there are a whole host of low-lying islands affected, including those like Kiribati, which is widely recognised as facing an existential crisis because of the risk of repeated inundations.

Referring to the cyclones that have caused devastation in countries like Vanuatu, Mr Mitchell said: "There's undoubtedly a significant amount of short-term displacement. So, people's homes are destroyed or uninhabitable for a period of time."

But, more generally, he added: "We know that, for example, some communities in Fiji have shifted inland in order to move away from the coast because the coastal erosion is out of control.

There was little left of many of the homes hit by Cyclone Harold. Pic: Oxfam

There was little left of many of the homes hit by Cyclone Harold. Pic: Oxfam

"I would imagine that the figures that you're seeing probably significantly underplay the trend of movement within the Pacific, because there are a lot of people moving, where they can, away from coasts."

Somalia

Somalia is a country that is not only wracked by war, it is highly vulnerable to extreme weather. And that weather is getting less predictable.

Much of its population suffers from extreme poverty, with 68% of people living on less than $2 a day in 2017, according to World Bank figures.

The country is also in the middle of a severe drought which while not causing as many displacements last year, is said by experts to lead to a risk of longer term migration and can cause conflict, as land suitable for farming and pasture becomes more scarce.  

Droughts in Somalia, like the one in 2018, frequently result in the displacement of people affected by famine

Droughts in Somalia, like the one in 2018, frequently result in the displacement of people affected by famine

In some parts of Somalia the drought has been going on for many years.

Other parts of the country are used to heavy rains. The annual Gu rains are the monsoon-like rainfall that comes every March in certain regions, and often lead to flash flooding. But the effects are said to be getting worse. And, while population increase and exploitation of land have been blamed, climate change is also said to be another driver.

According to the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, the probability of droughts, high temperatures and heavy rains will increase in the future.

And, while the amount of rainfall will increase, it will also occur less frequently and in the form of more extreme events.

Professor Yahya Amir Hagi, an economics lecturer from the University of Mogadishu, told Sky News how the place where he comes from has been affected by a changing landscape.

Describing what happened to Masagaway village, in southern Galguduud district, he said: "The village was very good; a small village - four wells and some schools. The people were happy.

Professor Yahya Amir Hagi, from the University of Mogadishu, has seen his village Masagaway changed

Professor Yahya Amir Hagi, from the University of Mogadishu, has seen his village Masagaway changed

"Then droughts of climate change affected my village; sand dunes - the livestock disappeared, they died.

"The people began to cut the trees for charcoal, to get food, because they lost their livestock. Charcoal business is very big, although it's illegal.

"After that, the sand dunes started moving from the south of the village to the north. Then almost half of the village was covered by these sand dunes, all over the houses, the schools.

"People moved three kilometres away from where I was born, to the north. It was all because of the small rains and droughts.

"Some of the people who live there, they go to Mogadishu just to survive or to get a job since they lost their livestock.

"Now it looks like a desert."

The 2019 floods, like the one shown here in Hiran region of central Somalia, were described as the country's worst in recent history

The 2019 floods, like the one shown here in Hiran region of central Somalia, were described as the country's worst in recent history

Dr Andrew Yaw Tchie, a senior researcher with NUPI and an expert on security in the Horn of Africa, which includes Somalia, has studied how climate change is impacting displacement and migration and how that can weaken security.

His research found that when droughts occurred, it would lead to "communities clashing more over resources; a lake that would dry up or rain hadn't come in... would cause conflicts in communities".

He added: "What you see is that the… seasons when farmers would plant crops would change. There were things that people weren't able to plant or to harvest because there wasn't any rain at all. We found that... increases the likelihood or triggers of conflict between communities.

"Let's say if one community is a herder community [and] the grazing of cattle had to take place earlier within the season, so pre-existing arrangements were broken… In some cases, we found evidence that al Shabaab was exploiting some of this.

The annual rains have been leading to floods in Somalia, like these in Mogadishu in 2019, that have affected hundreds of thousands of people

The annual rains have been leading to floods in Somalia, like these in Mogadishu in 2019, that have affected hundreds of thousands of people

"Because of this issue of drought, you see people moving from rural to urban areas. This massive influx of IDPs… impacts on the urban resources… particularly because those areas are not necessarily managed to deal with the influx… And that…  causes more tensions or conflict."

The Somali government recognises that it is becoming a driver of instability.

The director general of environment and climate change for the Office of the Prime Minister, Ahmed Yusuf Ahmed, told Sky News: "The ability of more than half of the Somalis to meet their basic needs depends heavily on a regular climate pattern. Climate change poses a serious threat to the... livelihoods of... Somali communities... The consequences... play a central role in fuelling grievances and provide opportunities for terrorist organisations."

Hawo Osman Abdi is in a camp for internally displaced people in Mogadishu, having fled from the Middle Shabelle region as a result of flooding, and is being helped by the Friends of the Horn Foundation, another of the NGOs that attempt to tackle the consequences of environmental impacts and conflict.

Hawo Osman Abdi and her nine children were forced to flee to an IDP camp in Mogadishu by flooding and war. Pic: Friends of the Horn Foundation

Hawo Osman Abdi and her nine children were forced to flee to an IDP camp in Mogadishu by flooding and war. Pic: Friends of the Horn Foundation

Through the Friends of the Horn Foundation, she told Sky News: "I want safety for my children.

"We left because of flooding and wars; too many problems. We went through real hardship.

"The weather was okay before the flooding. We were farming our land next to the river. [Then] we lost everything: household items, our farming land. I also lost my husband. All our houses were filled by flood water.

It took the family four days to reach the relative safety of the camp after they lost everything in the floods. Pic: Friends of the Horn Foundation

It took the family four days to reach the relative safety of the camp after they lost everything in the floods. Pic: Friends of the Horn Foundation

"I had to struggle to bring nine children to safety... alone. It took us four days to reach this camp. On the way we encountered many dangers.

"I think if everyone uses the environment wisely - especially the richer countries - we wouldn't have the abnormal weather and... flooding and drought."

The United States

While the USA is not in the list of top ten countries with the highest number of displacements per head of population, it is still perhaps surprisingly high, considering it is the richest country in the world.

It shows that even wealthy countries face the threat of displacement and migration due to climate change.

Wildfires, hurricanes and floods have forced hundreds of thousands of Americans from their homes.

San Francisco was enshrouded in a smoke pall last year during the devastating Western Wildfires

San Francisco was enshrouded in a smoke pall last year during the devastating Western Wildfires

Others, however, are worried about rising sea levels and the threat from storm surges, like the one that resulted from Hurricane Laura in 2020, which was predicted to be six metres high.

The Atlantic coast is one area that has already seen significant sea level rise. The US coast off Alaska has seen sea levels fall, however, because of a complex relationship between melting ice and sea water nearby.

The City of Boston is one of the communities taking action to mitigate against the effects of climate change being seen on the Atlantic coast.

Speaking to NBC Boston about her fears, one city resident Roxanne De Jesus told how awake she was to the future risk after seeing a surge hit her home area of east Boston in 2018, when an event dubbed a 'bomb cyclone' pushed tides to their equal highest levels in nearly 100 years.

Roxanne de Jesus. Pic: NBC Boston

Roxanne de Jesus. Pic: NBC Boston

"For the first time, we saw the water come out of the harbour," she said. 

She has lived in East Boston's Shore Plaza East apartments for 22 years but had never seen anything like it. The building is one of many affordable housing units at growing risk of coastal flooding. Although she lives on the second floor she says she is dreading that it could one day flood, as she can't afford insurance.

NBC Boston reported that she is among many in her area who feel under-prepared to deal with the consequences of climate change.

"We don't know what's being done or what kinda help is gonna be available to the community — we don't know," she said. "We have to move... We have to start planning, that's something that we have to start, but we don't know." 

The January 2018 'Bomb Cyclone' sent temperatures in Boston plunging and resulted in a simultaneous storm surge

The January 2018 'Bomb Cyclone' sent temperatures in Boston plunging and resulted in a simultaneous storm surge

Floods are more likely to affect disadvantaged communities, particularly ethnically diverse communities. Black, Native American, and Latino people are more like to rent and affordable housing is more likely to be in areas more vulnerable to flooding.

The same is also the case for many of those who are affected by wildfires.

Dr Aaron Clark-Ginsberg, a social scientist at the Rand group who is studying disasters and climate migration in the US and beyond, told Sky News people all across the country are having to move because of changes in the weather.

He said: "I'm in Oregon... And last year we had some pretty horrendous wildfires. Those people had to go somewhere.

"[With] some, it's very directly; you see this sudden onset shock, like a hurricane, like a wildfire. Other forms of migration are... indirectly related to a changing climate, for instance, in Truckee, California, the ski season is shortening.

"...And right now, in the western US, widespread and deep drought that's affecting farming... you are starting to see changes in economic viability related to these livelihoods and that's causing forms of movement."

Mr Mitchell said some types of climate change-linked extreme weather events are difficult for even wealthy countries to adapt to.

The Houston area has suffered from repeated flooding after, at times, feet of rain have fell on Texas

The Houston area has suffered from repeated flooding after, at times, feet of rain have fell on Texas

"Things like the flooding… everybody knows that the US struggles to maintain its infrastructure… so it's tempting to say that, [for example with] Houston, your infrastructure is just not up to scratch. But when you look at the sheer volume of water falling out of the sky, you have to wonder, is there any infrastructure that could handle that?"

What can be done?

All the experts that Sky News spoke to said what was needed was for those countries which are increasingly at risk from climate change-related displacement to step up adaptation – which is inevitably going to cost money. 

Paul Mitchell said: "Policymakers the world over and most particularly in vulnerable countries need to be considering climate change projections when they're making decisionsWithout understanding the likely future impacts, we can't make good development decisions to increase people's resilience.  

"What rich countries need to be doing is, to put it bluntly, stumping up the cash to support vulnerable countries manage these impacts.

"Rich countries have committed to providing $100bn-a-year in climate finance by 2020. That figure was not met in 2020 by any stretch of the imagination.

"It's a literal drop in the ocean to what's required, but it needs to be met, as a starting point."

Oxfam and Save The Children, along with a range of NGOs, international development agencies and governments are working on helping communities not only to rebuild their lives after weather-related disasters but also to adapt in a world where disasters are more frequent.

Members of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe, who previously lived on Isle de Jean Charles, have been resettled as a result of the US's first federal grant to relocate a Louisiana community affected by climate change

Members of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe, who previously lived on Isle de Jean Charles, have been resettled as a result of the US's first federal grant to relocate a Louisiana community affected by climate change

But as well as potentially costly adaption, a much greater understanding is required of what is happening and where the needs are greatest. 

Alexandra Bilak said: "There is still a lot of data gaps… still very few countries that track what happens to people who have been displaced over a long enough period of time… even in the countries that have the best data systems… We actually don't know what happens to these people." 

The International Organisation for Migration's Lorenzo Guadagno told Sky News there are many other potential risks humanity needs to prepare for, of which climate change is only one. 

He said: "There are other ecological dynamics: loss of biodiversity, loss of fertile soil, fresh water resources; that are even more urgent in some cases… which have to do with over-use. 

"So you cannot look at the climate element aloneif you don't look at that… as part of disaster risk reduction, intervention and climate change adaptation… there is nothing… that actually addresses the needs of the most vulnerable people.

Friends of the Horn Foundation is among the NGOs carrying out programmes to help Somalis adapt to the changing environment

Friends of the Horn Foundation is among the NGOs carrying out programmes to help Somalis adapt to the changing environment

Somalia's government is one of those that says it is employing adaptation, having adopted a Programme of Action in 2013 and more recently specific environment-related policies to tackle it. Mr Ahmed told Sky News climate change adaptation "as part of a longer-term development strategy is gaining traction as a priority for government... This is evident from the recent policy development at federal level."

But he said the international community could do more, adding: "While we appreciate the support we have received, it is obvious that more needs to be done. Richer countries can play a vital role in supporting vulnerable countries."

Oxfam is involved in a project to transfer knowledge from one part of Vanuatu to another to help rebuild homes made of coconut palms

Oxfam is involved in a project to transfer knowledge from one part of Vanuatu to another to help rebuild homes made of coconut palms

In response, the UK government told Sky News the UK recognises climate change requires greater and more co-ordinated adaptation and mitigation planning and, as president of the G7 and hosts of COP26, the UK is committed to delivering its collective commitment to jointly mobilise the $100bn a year through to 2025 to help poorer countries adapt to climate change. 

A spokesperson said: "We are doubling our international climate finance to £11.6 billion over the next five years and are encouraging partners to share our ambition in this vital area."

Experts say if the issue isn't tackled, the implications for the future are potentially profound.

Save The Children is another NGO helping people to adapt, with donations such as the tarpaulin and hygiene kit they gave to Zimanda and her family in Vanuatu after Cyclone Harold destroyed their home

Save The Children is another NGO helping people to adapt, with donations such as the tarpaulin and hygiene kit they gave to Zimanda and her family in Vanuatu after Cyclone Harold destroyed their home

Dr Clark-Ginsberg added: "Internationally, climate change refugee is not a concept that exists in international law... There's a lot of migration going on within countries, but there is also migration going on between countries that's climate driven or climate related. So, we should be starting to talk more about climate mobility and migration, the international context - it's a multi-level governance problem and it needs to be treated as such."


Credits:

Words and data journalism: Carmen Aguilar Garcia, data journalist

Words and digital production: Philip Whiteside, international news reporter

Graphics: Celt Iwan, designer

Pictures: Associated Press; Reuters; Yahya Amir Hagi; NBC Boston; Save The Children, Oxfam; George Koran; Friends of the Horn Foundation


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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