Alabama will face its most serious severe weather risk of 2020 on Easter.
It’s still three days out, but the National Weather Service is forecasting an outbreak of severe weather on Sunday — including strong, long-track tornadoes, damaging winds, golf-ball-size hail and flooding rain.
The Storm Prediction Center has added a not-often-used moderate risk for part of west and central Alabama for Sunday, which is Level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk categories.
A moderate risk means widespread severe storms will be likely, according to the SPC, and some of those storms will be long-lived, widespread and intense.
Areas in the SPC’s moderate risk area include Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, Hamilton and Demopolis.
It’s the highest risk category that can be used by the SPC three days out.
But no part of Alabama will be off the hook on Sunday. The entire rest of the state, from north Alabama to the Gulf Coast, has an enhanced risk, which means numerous severe storms will be possible.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham cautioned Alabamians to take this seriously “no matter the color of the risk area,” on Sunday.
“While there is still some slight question as to exact timing of the system and associated severe weather, confidence continues to increase that a significant severe weather event will occur over parts of the deep south on Sunday into Sunday evening,” the weather service in Mobile said in its morning forecast discussion.
Forecasters said “a very volatile” environment will be in place on Sunday over Alabama, and all the ingredients will be in place for severe weather, including the wind shear needed to spawn tornadoes.
Some of those tornadoes could be strong and stay on the ground for long distances.
The weather service in Birmingham also added that storms could be moving fast — cutting down on time to get to safety should one threaten your area.
Forecasters said now is the time to get ready. Make sure you will have a safe place to go if severe weather threatens your area on Sunday. Make sure that your safe place is ready should you need to get to it in a hurry. Make sure your phones are charged on Sunday. And make sure you have a reliable to get warnings if one is issued for your area.
Sunday will be a day to pay close attention to the weather no matter what else is going on.
And if a tornado warning is issued for you, take it seriously. The weather service continues to improve its false alarm rates, and the polygon warnings forecasters use don’t include an entire county but those areas in the direct path of the storm.
The window for severe weather will be Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Rain and storms will be possible earlier in the day on Sunday as a warm front moves northward across the state.
Those morning storms aren’t expected to dampen the risk for severe storms later in the day.
The main severe weather event will begin Sunday afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front.
Forecasters are looking at the potential for a intense squall line. And supercell storms could also develop ahead of the main line.
Tornadoes — possibly strong ones — will be possible in both the squall line and the supercells ahead of it, the weather service said.
Heavy rain will also be possible, especially for north Alabama, and 2-3 inches will be possible by Sunday night, the weather service in Huntsville said.
The system is expected to move out of Alabama by early Monday morning, and calmer weather is expected going into next week.