HOUSTON — Before Gerrit Cole. Before Stephen Strasburg. Before any major outside fishing expedition to try to upgrade the roster for 2020, the Yankees must determine what to do about their own potential free agents.
There are probably two easy calls: The Yanks will reject Edwin Encarnacion’s $20 million 2020 option. He was terrible in the ALCS, but Yankees people really liked him. Nevertheless, they are overloaded with righty DH types and will want to redirect their money elsewhere. Cameron Maybin was productive in his role and would not be a big-ticket item next year. But the Yankees (if healthy) have outfield depth.
The five tough calls:
1 . Dellin Betances — In my unscientific poll, Betances seemed the most devastated by Saturday’s elimination in Houston. He was close with CC Sabathia and the team did not get a championship for the lefty into retirement. He is a career-long Yankee who now encounters the unknown. He was still in a walking boot protecting a partially torn Achilles, which kept him from participating in the postseason, where his extra high-end arm might have mattered.
His free agent timing could hardly be worse. From 2014-18, Betances was elite (2.22 ERA/14.6 strikeouts per nine innings). He didn’t pitch this year until Sept. 15 due to shoulder ailments, struck out the only two batters he faced and tore the Achilles. So he’s a guy who throws hard and is 6-foot-8 coming off of shoulder and Achilles problems. That is going to scare teams off. Zack Britton does not land with nearly the same force and was good in 2018 after his Achilles tear, but admitted to not being fully comfortable and confident until this season.
The Yanks know Betances best, and he is well liked. But they also know his medical condition best and that could harm a re-sign. Betances almost certainly is going to have to take a one-year deal perhaps in the $5 million-$10 million range for 2020 (when he will be 32) to see if he can restore value for a bigger payday later.
2. Aroldis Chapman — He almost certainly will opt out of the final two years at $30 million left. Since Chapman ($86 millon) and Kenley Jansen ($80 million) signed five-year pacts following the 2016 season, teams have become more circumspect about long commitments at such a volatile position.
Chapman’s season ended miserably with him yielding an ALCS walk-off homer to Jose Altuve. But he is among the majors’ best relievers, and the Yanks’ bullpen lines up so much better if he is retained rather than finding out if Britton can still close and if there is any year-after confidence impact after Adam Ottavino’s poor showing in the postseason. Also, Britton can opt out after next year, when Tommy Kahnle is a free agent, too. So the trusted relief numbers can dwindle quickly here.
I think the Yankees would add a year and make Chapman a three-year, $45 million man. Would they go higher? The wild cards to go higher are the Phillies and White Sox. If Philadelphia hires Joe Girardi as manager, he offers insights having managed Chapman.
3. Brett Gardner — He signed for $7.5 million last year before even going into free agency. He is a career-long Yankee and prefers to stay. He had a terrific regular season, playing a lot more (especially center field) than anticipated. The only hesitancy for a reunion at, say, $9 million is: Do the Yanks feel they can get much the same out of Mike Tauchman at near minimum wage (lefty hitter, plays all three outfield spots while showing a good eye and power) as Gardner?
I do think the Yanks will look to save money in some areas, but not here. Gardner’s leadership is important, especially with Sabathia retiring and Betances, Didi Gregorius and Austin Romine potentially lost to free agency.
4. Gregorius — Before needing Tommy John surgery after last season, Gregorius felt like a long-term lock. Now, I am not even sure the Yankees make the $17.8 million qualifying offer.
He was arguably their best all-around player in 2018. The Yanks will have to come to peace with what happened on both sides of the ball this year. Did Gregorius put too much pressure on himself trying to play catch-up after missing the first two months or is he in a decline phase? He turns 30 in February, and without a clear answer, I no longer see the Yanks going long term with him. Would any team?
Part of the decision comes down to the Yanks’ payroll budget. They do not announce such things, but if I had to guess, Hal Steinbrenner will not allow the Yankees to exceed the second penalty level for the luxury tax ($228 million) to begin the year. Their current long-term commitments (including Chapman as if he did not opt out) plus projections on arbitration players such as Aaron Judge, James Paxton and Gary Sanchez, 25-man roster filler and the insurance/pension/etc. every team is charged put the Yanks right around the first threshold of $208 million.
Do the Yanks want to fill up most of the disposable $20 million-ish left on Gregorius? Would they see if they could get him for, say, $12 million? His lefty bat and leadership have value. Or do the Yanks roll with Gleyber Torres as their primary shortstop and live with Tyler Wade or some other inexpensive piece as a backup?
5. Romine — The Yankee analytic wing likes Kyle Higashioka. This is another area to potentially save money. But it also is not an area to hope and pray. Sanchez is now a near certainty to need a few injured list pitstops a year. That plus Sanchez’s overall wavy production on offense and defense means the Yanks have to prepare for the backup to start in stretches.
Higashioka has been the guy sitting at Triple-A who comes up to be Romine’s backup when Sanchez is out. In sporadic major league duty, he has shown a bit of pop, but hasn’t really hit or demonstrated much of an arm. By the way, he is only 17 months younger than Romine. For, say, two years at $5 million, should the Yanks let a quality backup catcher who provides leadership and a security blanket leave?