Monthly Outlook

 Last updated

Summary

Unsettled and chilly then milder

Temperatures should rise to a little above normal this week, but it will remain unsettled. Turning colder, mainly to the north, by the beginning of April. In the second week of April, there is a chance that a more zonal flow could establish again, which would allow temperatures to rise mainly in the south, but with wetter and windier conditions at times.

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Changeable and slightly milder

For the rest of this week, low-pressure will linger close to or just west of the UK bringing further bands of rain moving east and northwards. Temperatures will rise a little, but some wintriness will still be possible over higher ground at times. Windy conditions are expected to develop more widely as well.

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Trending colder, uncertain for end of the week

The milder trend may continue until the beginning of April. No significant warmth is expected but temperatures are more likely to remain a little above average. It should stay unsettled, with low pressure moving sluggishly close to the UK and sending bands of frontal rain or secondary low-pressure systems across the UK. However, conditions will probably become less wet towards the middle of next week, and a more northerly flow may establish for a time.

With high pressure building over Greenland, low pressure systems should track further south than normal, which could mean a somewhat wetter pattern for southern England in comparison to Scotland. Parts of Scotland and Northern England could be drier and colder than average with potentially frosty nights and a few showers, occasionally wintry. The rest of the UK should have near-average temperatures.

Later in the week, after generally calmer and cooler conditions, new Atlantic low-pressure systems may approach from the south-west towards the weekend. Uncertainty arises, especially for southern parts of the UK, which could see a slightly milder, wetter and windier pattern and this may track further north-eastwards.

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Slightly milder but still uncertain.

Generally, we expect a continuation of a weaker than normal jet stream due to the long-lasting stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) disruption from early March. However, as the SPV has now recovered, blocking high pressure over Greenland may become less dominant into April and we could therefore expect a more westerly or south-westerly Atlantic flow to develop with embedded low-pressure systems. However, transient high-pressure ridges are still likely to develop in between these lows. In other words, spells of wet weather look likely to continue into April but with some drier and brighter spells in between and perhaps less chance of any cold outbreaks returning.

Further ahead

Any further indications of how cold it could be during April?

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