Europe’s elite clubs count casualties as Champions Cup pressure swells

The Six Nations Championship may be three weeks away but the luxury of leisurely preparation is unavailable to Europe’s leading players. Every season it becomes easier to argue that, intensity-wise, very little separates the decisive latter rounds of Champions Cup pool matches and some international games. All Six Nations coaches keep their fingers tightly crossed at this time of year.

While England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland are each due to name their squads next week there is no guarantee what state their troops will be in. Stuart Lancaster has already lost the services of Gloucester’s No8 Ben Morgan and will be keeping a particularly close eye on this weekend’s matches at Leicester, Twickenham, Toulouse and Swansea before Wednesday’s announcement.

Scarlets, as well as the Wales coach Warren Gatland, are already suffering from an untimely rash of injuries. The international front-row forwards Ken Owens, Emyr Phillips, Samson Lee and Rhodri Jones are unavailable for the key Pool 3 contest against Leicester. They will also head to Welford Road without the Welsh squad members Liam Williams and Gareth Davies, the Samoan wing Michael Tagicakibau and the South African lock Joe Snyman.

If that sounds like a useful bonus for Leicester, the Tigers need all the help they can get to reach the knockout phase of a remodelled competition with little wriggle room. Northampton, helped massively by the presence of the Italian stragglers Treviso in Pool Five, look good for a plum home quarter-final tie if they overcome Ospreys and Racing Metro in their final games but otherwise England’s top clubs are scrabbling madly to stay alive.

It could even be that bonus-point victories for Leicester against Scarlets at home and Ulster in Belfast will still be insufficient for the Tigers, with the aggregate number of tries scored looming as a major factor. Leicester – who have drafted Freddie Burns, Brad Thorn and Logovi’i Mulipola into their starting XV – have managed only five in four matches, leaving them vulnerable to a free-scoring side like Wasps even if Dai Young’s side lose narrowly to Harlequins this weekend.

Leinster – lacking Zane Kirchner, Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien, Kevin McLaughlin, Rhys Ruddock and the suspended Jack McGrath – will have other ideas but a bonus-point home win in Coventry next week could yet put Wasps through depending on other results. Harlequins have the best defensive record in the tournament – only two tries conceded in four matches – but need to sharpen their attacking edge to avoid missing out when the final mathematics are done.

It will certainly be no surprise, sifting through the various permutations, if the heavyweight quartet of Saints, Toulon, Clermont Auvergne and Toulouse go on to secure the four available home slots in the quarter-final draw, with the winners of Pool Two – Quins, Wasps or Leinster – forced to travel to France. Racing Metro, also helped by Treviso’s lack of competitiveness, will almost certainly be away to one of their leading Top 14 rivals, leaving six or seven sides to chase the two remaining qualification berths.

Heading that list are Saracens, whose home game against Munster is a must-win encounter for both sides. The Irish province have beaten their north London-based opponents in five of their six meetings and have not forgotten the efforts made to drown out their supporters by the loud playing of “Stand Up For The Saracens” over the public address in Watford just over two years ago.

Neither has the recent return to fitness of Munster’s Keith Earls and James Cronin gone unnoticed and the Saracens director of rugby, Mark McCall, expects a humdinger. “It’s the first knockout game of the year. We know this is the biggest game of the season so far. They have this uncanny ability to raise their game when required but over the last 18 months we’ve also proved we have phenomenal games in us when we’ve needed them.”

If Munster fall short it will be only the second time since 1998 they have failed to reach the quarter-finals in Europe. Saracens, who have qualified for the last eight in four of the last five seasons, also have a reputation to protect after wobbling slightly in the Premiership. McCall believes last Friday’s defeat to Gloucester will not have a major effect: “This time last year Northampton were knocked out of the competition and were second or third in the Premiership but then went on to beat us in the final. You deal with the blows along the way.”

While English clubs look set to dominate home advantage in the Challenge Cup it continues to be the big French sides who hold the balance of power in the elite tournament. Toulon’s backs may have been battling flu this week but the champions could secure their quarter-final place a week early if they beat Ulster well.

Toulouse, the only unbeaten side left, will also cruise into the last eight if they beat Bath, who need a victory to stay afloat. “We want to keep on winning to prove we are worthy of a home draw,” said Louis Picamoles, the French international No8. “We won over there in round two but they were missing a lot of important players. They will be looking for revenge on Sunday.”