CLEVELAND, Ohio - Climate change vs. global warming: What's the proper term?
Climate change is now the preferred scientific term for the primarily man-made phenomenon, simply because global warming does not cover all of the detrimental effects humans have inflicted on the environment.
To be clear, scientists didn't rename global warming after the 1970s myth of a consensus on "global cooling." Those rumors were fueled by a doctored Time Magazine image falsely proclaiming "How to Survive the Incoming Ice Age." Even during the time of the false gossip, the scientific literature overwhelmingly predicted global warming.
The Earth is indeed getting hotter. But that's just one of the issues of climate change. Take a look at some of the biggest.
The globe really is warming; roughly 10 times faster than any time in the past 800,000 years
The Vostok ice core in the Antarctic has given scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association and NASA a look at global temperatures back 800,000 years. As the Earth has moved out of ice ages, the global average temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius (7.2 to 12.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over a period of 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.26 degrees Fahrenheit); roughly ten times faster than the average rate in the Vostok ice core.
According to NASA, "Models predict that Earth will warm between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius [3.6 and 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit] in the next century. When global warming has happened at various times in the past 2 million years, it has taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next century is at least 20 times faster. This rate of change is extremely unusual."
Vostok ice core 800,000-year temperature record.
Yes, the temperature of the globe has been higher in the past. The major point is that the global mean temperature has not risen this fast in (at least) the past 800,000 years.
Carbon dioxide levels
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels haven't been as high as today -- over 400 parts per million -- any time during the past 400,000 years. NASA says carbon dioxide usually hovers between 200 and 280 parts per million. "During ice ages, carbon dioxide levels were around 200 parts per million, and during the warmer inter-glacial periods, they hovered around 280 ppm."
400,000-year carbon dioxide record.
Sea level rise
Global sea level continues to rise at an average rate of 1/8 of an inch per year, due to melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the thermal expansion of the ocean waters as they warm.
NOAA scientists conducted a review of the research on global sea level rise projections, and concluded that there is "very high confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches, but no more than 6.6 feet by 2100." Variations depend on the rate of future carbon emissions, and the rate of glacier and ice sheet melting.
The light blue line shows seasonal (3-month) sea level estimates from Church and White (2011). The darker line is based on University of Hawaii Fast Delivery sea level data.
Increased water stress
About 10 percent of U.S. watersheds are already overtaxing their water supply, says NOAA. Climate change is projected to worsen water stress, or the balance between supply and demand, for nearly half the country in the decades to come.
This map shows the percent change in water stress by mid-century (2040-2061) compared to the 1990-1970 historic average. Blue is where climate change will increase the availability of water, and brown means global warming and its precipitation side effects are projected to decrease the supply, making water more scarce.
Water stress percent change projected by the mid-century.
Declining arctic sea-ice
Every September, arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum. NASA reports September arctic sea-ice is declining at a rate of 13.3 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average sea-ice extent.
The satellite record began in 1979. The NOAA's 2016 Arctic Report Card showed the arctic sea-ice minimum extent (the minimum percent area of the ocean covered with ice) was the lowest it's ever been, at 28 percent less than the average since 1981.
But it's not just about areal extent, ice coverage has to do with volume too. Arctic ice continues to thin, with thicker, multi-year ice (ice that's been in one location for multiple years) compromising only 22 percent of the total ice cover. In 1985, multi-year ice accounted for 45 percent of total ice cover.
The age of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean at winter maximum in March 1985 (left) compared with March 2016 (right). The darker the blue, the younger the ice. The first age class on the scale (1, darkest blue) means "first-year ice," which formed in the most recent winter. The oldest ice (7+, white) is ice that is more than seven years old. Historically, most of the ice pack was many years old. Today, only a fraction of that very old ice reamins. NOAA Climate.gov maps, based on NOAA/NASA data provided by Mark Tschudi.
Declining snow cover extent
The spring snow cover extent, the surface area over which is covered with snow, set a record-low areal coverage in the North American arctic in 2016, and the May snow cover extent fell below 1.5 million square miles for the first time since the satellite observations began in 1966.
North American and Greenland snow cover extent, 1966 through 2016.
More frequent and severe weather
NOAA's report on the link between climate change and severe weather events in 2014 found, "human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use, influenced specific extreme weather and climate events in 2014, including tropical cyclones in the central Pacific, heavy rainfall in Europe, drought in East Africa, and stifling heat waves in Australia, Asia, and South America..."
This same type of severe weather event attribution report, a relatively new and upcoming area in atmospheric science, began in 2011 and is a collaboration between NOAA and the American Meteorological Society.
Not every severe weather event can be attributed to climate change, as natural climate variability, for example El Nino or La Nina years, can increase the likelihood of extreme events as well.
Air pollution
"Air quality can be impacted by climate change, and climate change can impact air quality," says the EPA.
Emissions of pollutants warm the climate. A specific culprit is ozone, which results from the emissions from cars, power plants, industrial boilers, refineries, and chemical plants reacting with sunlight in the atmosphere.
A study published by Harvard University on the connection between air quality and climate change states, "The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming."
If ozone continues to increase, this will cause widespread health problems:
- shortness of breath
- pain when taking a deep breath
- coughing
- sore or scratchy throat
- inflamed and damaged airways
- aggravation of diagnosed lung diseases: asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis
Higher wildlife extinction rates
One of every six species could face extinction if climate change continues as projected, according to a scientific, peer-reviewed article by Mark C. Urban, a biologist and associate professor in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut, in Science Mag.
The study examines how "current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. [He] synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies."
Oceanic life is responding to global warming temperatures as well. According to the National Ocean Service, marine species are moving to the poles to stay cool as the average ocean temperatures rises. These large shifts can cause ecological disruptions as predators are separated from their typical prey.
Acidic ocean
The oceans absorb around half of the carbon dioxide we emit into the atmosphere, which is making them more acidic, according to the National Ocean Service.
"This increased acidity can make life difficult for organisms that build shells out of calcium carbonate. This includes not only corals and shellfish, but also tiny organisms like pteropods that form the foundation of many marine food webs."
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