Great Britain must not take Belgium lightly in Davis Cup final

A quick glance at Belgium’s route to their first Davis Cup final since 1904 leads to an obvious question: how on earth have they managed to get this far without anyone putting an end to their unlikely run?

The unseeded Belgians were handed a daunting task when they were thrust into a home tie against Switzerland in March, and beating the holders looked like a tall order for a team who had not won a World Group first-round match since 2007. Yet Switzerland were without Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka, and their highest-ranked singles player was Adrien Bossel, the world No321. Henri Laaksonen was ranked 344th, Michael Lammer 576th and Yann Marti, the world No292, left the camp in a huff after he was left out of the opening round of singles matches.

No Federer and no Wawrinka meant no party for the Swiss and celebrations for Belgium, who secured a 3-2 victory when David Goffin returned from a troublesome back injury to beat Bossel 6-4, 6-0, 6-4 in the decider. Even the most diehard of Belgium supporters could not have kept a straight face while arguing that Johan Van Herck’s team would have won if their opponents had travelled to Liège with the two greats who led them to glory last year.

Going by the numbers, Belgium will not attack Great Britain with a stellar cast. Goffin is their star but the world No16 is backed up by Steve Darcis, the world No84, Ruben Bemelmans, the world No108, and Kimmer Coppejans, the world No128.

Although Britain’s nerve will be tested by playing in a febrile atmosphere away from home, with 13,000 fans expected inside the tight Flanders Expo Arena in Ghent, the presence of Andy Murray makes them the favourites to win the Davis Cup for the first time since 1936. For Belgium, the hope is that playing on an indoor clay court will hinder Murray, whose preparations were disrupted by last week’s ATP World Tour Finals. “For Britain it’s tough to play on clay,” Goffin says. “They prefer grass courts, hard courts, fast courts. It’s tough for them to change surface.” But perhaps not that tough for Murray, who has found his feet on the surface that has troubled him in the past.

While Goffin will expect to beat Britain’s No2, Kyle Edmund, in the opening rubber on Friday afternoon, there is more chance of Murray giving himself another on-court haircut than there is of him losing the second match to Bemelmans, a 27-year-old left-hander whose previous match was a 6-3, 7-6 defeat by the world No152, Karen Khachanov, in a Challenger tournament in France.

There was surprise at Thursday’s draw when Belgium named Bemelmans as their second singles player. His record on clay is average, although it is likely they are resting Darcis for a potentially decisive singles rubber against Kyle Edmund on Sunday. Darcis has won four live fifth rubbers for Belgium. However, Darcis and Coppejans could be outmatched by the Murray brothers in the doubles on Saturday.

Darcis is chiefly known for stunning Rafael Nadal in the first round of Wimbledon two years ago, only to pull out before his next match with a shoulder injury. The 21-year-old Coppejans has qualified for the main draw of a grand slam once and, although Bemelmans reached the third round of the US Open in September, he was trailing by two sets to one when Jack Sock retired with cramp at the start of the fourth set of their second-round match. Bemelmans then lost in straight sets to Wawrinka.

Belgium have enjoyed some good fortune on their way to the final. They won their quarter-final 5-0 against Canada, whose top two players, Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil, were missing because of injuries, while the outcome of the tie between their potential semi-final opponents, Argentina and Serbia, was influenced by the absence of Novak Djokovic. The world No1 was on holiday five days after winning Wimbledon and Serbia slumped to a 4-1 defeat without him in Buenos Aires.

Yet while they could easily have been facing tougher opponents, Britain were carried by Murray in their quarter-final against France and their semi-final against Australia. There have been notable contributions from other members of the team, Jamie Murray impressing alongside his younger brother in the doubles and James Ward winning an incredible match against the USA’s John Isner in the first round but Leon Smith’s team cannot afford to be complacent. Belgium have already won three ties at home and picking the surface gives them a tactical advantage.

They have chosen wisely so far, squeezing past Argentina on an indoor hard court, and they believe Britain will be unsteady on an indoor clay court. The experienced Darcis, who beat the world No52 Federico Delbonis 6-4, 2-6, 7-5, 7-6 in the deciding fifth rubber against Argentina, has a 10-1 win-loss record in Davis Cup singles rubbers on clay and Goffin’s record is 4-1. They know the surface inside out. Goffin is excellent on clay and the 24-year-old announced himself as a coming force with a commendable performance in a 5-7, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4 defeat by Federer in the fourth round of the French Open three years ago.

Assessing his chances against Murray on Sunday would be easier if the Scot had not withdrawn from what would have been their first meeting on clay in the Rome Masters in May. However, this was the year when Murray won his first two titles on clay and he leads 2-0 in his head-to-head with Goffin. Murray swatted him aside at Wimbledon last year and, perhaps more relevantly, thrashed him 6-1, 6-0 on a Paris hard court earlier this month.

Belgium will look elsewhere for historical pointers but they might want to gloss over that final in 1904. Britain were their opponents and they lost 5-0.