On Thursday we’ll know for sure but, when this England setup signals something, it usually sticks to its guns, so Sam Burgess will wear 12 against Wales at Twickenham due to Jonathan Joseph’s absence. With Owen Farrell, at 10, and Brad Barritt sandwiching Burgess, Stuart Lancaster is signalling a focus on the battle for the gain line and with it the game.
It is probably the biggest gamble of his four years in charge but that doesn’t mean it won’t work.
This has been in the offing since Mike Catt, who looks after England’s backs, set the alarm bells ringing at the weekend. Normally, when any part of Lancaster’s coaching team says something, you sit up and take interest. But Burgess for the injured Joseph? Slamming Sam, the least subtle of runners, for the man whose footwork inspired and scored with such freedom in the Six Nations?
Back then even the kindest observer took Burgess’s chances of even making the 31-strong World Cup squad with a considerable pinch of salt. However, let’s look kindly on his good fortune. Let’s look for the positives.
First, it has to be said that the last 20 minutes against Fiji were Burgess’s best in an England shirt. The game called out for directness and, if Burgess is anything, he’s direct. With the likes of Billy Vunipola and Burgess carrying into Fiji midfield, England were on the front foot and ended the game in better shape than they started.
It’s not an obvious comparison, but Lancaster might then have taken some inspiration from the way the All Blacks snuffed out the threat of Argentina a day later. Not long into the second half Steve Hansen pulled off Ma’a Nonu and added Sonny Bill Williams, his bustling, off-loading ex-leaguer, with instructions to stop the mucking around in midfield. It worked: the All Blacks got themselves out of a tricky spot and Lancaster might argue that he too is now fighting fire with fire.
An England midfield of Farrell, Barritt and Burgess might be something of a blunt instrument but then again look at the trio confronting them. Dan Biggar, Scott Williams and Jamie Roberts don’t exactly shy away from the physical; Warren Gatland going for the more direct skills and mental strength of Biggar over Rhys Priestland’s creative skills, while Roberts is the master of getting over the gain line from set plays.
It will be tight, brutal even. The downside for England is that, if they don’t win the battle of the gain line, they are likely to lose the match as well. This is not a passing back line. Few of England’s have been recently. So to whom does Lancaster turn when Plan B requires a little guile and width to bring a back three of quality into the game and give England a try-scoring threat?
Last week’s choice of replacements was perfect for that day. They added impact from the bench but it worked so well only because none of the starting XV got injured, leaving Lancaster to pick and mix at his pre-planned leisure. This week’s gamble needs the bench to be very different. This week’s replacements have to include real game-changers, not guys who will add more of the same.
However, first you have to look at the chemistry of the half-backs and, not for the first time, you sense this could be a Richard Wigglesworth game. Not one that he starts from the bench but one when he’s there from the start.
In attritional matches I’m a fan, because Wigglesworth is the best kicking scrum-half we have and, when Farrell is the only other kicking option, then the Saracen’s left boot is essential.
Given that England are gearing up for the pragmatic, the battle for territory – which games with Wales invariably become – suits Wigglesworth rather than the better all-round option of Ben Youngs. He should be the man either to tease the Wales back three on to the shorter box-kick and aerial combat with the chasing England wings or to turn the big Welsh wings with deeper kicks that force them on to the retreat.
Then, once again, there is the issue of Henry Slade, the undoubted success of the warm-up matches but a guy who could be left kicking his heels during the games that really matter.
The argument against his inclusion is that England are already going into a crucial game with yet another midfield that hasn’t played together other than on the training ground. Add Slade and you might compound the problem.