From the glistening stadium to plush training ground, the facilities at Brighton & Hove Albion’s disposal are unmistakably Premier League standard. Materially, everything is in place for a third south coast team to join the top flight, but of the three clubs fighting for automatic promotion they remain the outside chance.
In a season where the bounty for elevation is greater than ever, Burnley are justifiable favourites to make an immediate return thanks to the astute management of Sean Dyche and retaining most of last season’s squad. Middlesbrough, exiled from the top flight since 2009, have a team packed with high-level experience on the back of significant investment.
But if the playing budget is, as statistic boffins suggest, intrinsically linked to where a team finishes, Brighton, with four seasons in Division One, from 1979‑83, should not even be competing. The manager, Chris Hughton, has previously said he did not expect to be promoted at the beginning of the season, but altered their objectives after an impressive 21‑game unbeaten run. They were the last team in the country to suffer defeat – at home to Boro on 19 December. When they lost three of their next four, many concluded they were spent. Not the case: they have lost one of 18 games played since.
Burnley, a no-nonsense team guided by a no-nonsense manager, are unbeaten since Boxing Day and Middlesbrough’s last loss was on 13 March. However, crucially, Aitor Karanka’s team have drawn their last three. Now is not the time to suffer a dip.
With the new £5.1bn television deal kicking in, this is the campaign to go up. Analysts estimate that whoever gains promotion this season will instantly be among the top 40 richest clubs in the world. Missing out would be a grievous blow.
Hughton believes there is additional pressure on Middlesbrough because of the money they have spent on transfers in the past 12 months, but hopes that does not affect Karanka’s players. The carrot of going up should be motivation enough. “When it comes to pressure, I don’t think there is any different pressure on the players,” Hughton says.
“I would like to think that the pressure on our players to get promotion is very much the same as it is on the other two groups of players. And I would want that because it is a healthy pressure and a welcome pressure. But certainly there is more pressure on the two other clubs because of their expectations and perhaps on Middlesbrough because of what they have spent over a season.”
If there is a relaxed air on the south coast, on Teesside there is tension. Steve Gibson’s sizeable investment and their defeat in last year’s play-off final to Norwich has put a considerable squeeze on Karanka. Being denied victory by an inattentive linesman in the 2-2 draw at Birmingham on Friday was a cruel twist – has a result to go top of the table ever felt like such a kick in the teeth? – but in a season of 46 games and doses of bad luck for every club the errant raising of an assistant’s flag will not hold much weight as an excuse.
Boro remain in control of their destiny. Winning against Brighton next Saturday will be good enough to go up. If they are to remain in the Championship next season it will be considered a resounding failure, likely making Karanka’s position untenable. It is important to remember he threatened to resign two months ago after falling out with some players on the training ground.
While that Riverside battle will command most focus, Burnley’s conclusion is daunting for other reasons. A final-day trip to Charlton will provide disruption. Disgruntled Charlton supporters have promised “unrelenting” protests against the club’s owner, Roland Duchatelet, following match-delaying demonstrations, coincidentally, against Boro and Brighton. What their intentions are is unclear but Dyche will need to factor that element into his preparations.
Hughton described Brighton’s 3-1 win at The Valley last Saturday as surreal, adding that there was no way they could prepare for dozens of beach balls causing the referee to stop play for several minutes. Charlton defeated Boro on the day Karanka was in absentia, his future as manager in doubt after apparently telling his players 48 hours previously he did not want to manage them.
That rift was healed and Boro won their next six games before their spate of draws, but undeniably the pressure is greatest in the north-east following expensive additions to the squad in the summer and further bolstering by the signing of Jordan Rhodes on 1 February. As Joey Barton remarked when Boro defeated Burnley 1-0 in December to create an eight-point buffer between the two: “We’re aware of the spending power of [other] clubs. Boro are spending a lot more than us.”
But if transfer fees are to gauge a team’s promotion chances, Burnley, who splurged £9.3m on their top scorer, Andre Gray, must also be well clear of Brighton. In comparison, Hughton’s big spend this season was the £2.6m on Anthony Knockaert a couple of weeks before Rhodes went to Boro for £9m.
In the prolonged, acrimonious debate over money, Brighton have worked quietly. Plus, as Hughton says, sensibly, expenditure does not guarantee success. “It’s not necessarily about what is spent. It’s about how you use what you have and getting the best out of the team and doing the best you can.”
Barring an unlikely collapse from Burnley, the loser at the Riverside will enter the play-offs. While Karanka will not discuss the live possibility of picking his players up from the canvas and fight again so soon, Hughton holds no fear. “The plus advantage is you don’t have to wait very long,” he says. “There isn’t time to dwell on it too much. It’s not that you have to wait too long. It’s six or seven days to get into preparation mode again.”
They would all like to be on the beach toasting success by then, but it is hard not to fear more for Boro if the next six days fail to pan out as planned.