EU referendum: polling reveals freedom of movement most contentious issue

As German chancellor Angela Merkel meets with David Cameron for discussions on Britain’s position in the EU, the UK prime minister’s party is torn.

The German chancellor’s visit comes just as the debate within the Conservative party over freedom of movement within the EU has spilled into the public eye. Key figures have argued border controls should be a core demand in Cameron’s renegotiation before the in/out referendum, while others warn the issue could cost the UK dearly at the negotiating table.

Boris Johnson, London’s mayor, and Theresa May, the home secretary, both used their speeches to the Conservative party conference this week to say they wanted more control over the number of migrants coming to Britain from the EU. Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, tried to shut down any potential row by warning his colleagues that limiting free movement within the EU is simply unachievable. Cameron avoided the issue all together in his keynote address.

The prime minister has seemingly abandoned the idea of tinkering with free movement after Merkel told him that she wouldn’t accept any meddling with one of the EU’s fundamental principles.

But the debate over freedom of movement isn’t just a contentious issue for the Tories. New figures suggest the number of Britons that want remain in the EU could drop substantially if it proves impossible to enforce greater controls on the free movement of people. How the campaign to stay in, which launches next Monday, handles the immigration debate could prove critical to the referendum’s outcome.

If freedom of movement is not limited, the proportion who say Britain should stay in the EU drops 16 percentage points (to 36% from 52%), while the vote to get out rises by 12 points (to 43% from 31%), according to analysis by Ipsos Mori.

The same study also reveals that whether Cameron succeeds, or fails, in fulfilling his pledge to limit EU migrants’ benefits could prove decisive in how Britain votes in the in/out referendum.

Nearly six in ten Britons believe freedom of movement should be restricted, and a further 14% think that there should be no free movement of people between different EU countries at all, according to the analysis. Only 16% of the British public believe freedom of movement should be kept in its current form or that there should no controls at all.

Moreover, imposing restrictions on the benefits that EU migrants can claim is by far the most supported aim from the list of areas that Cameron wants to renegotiate with other EU member states before holding the referendum. Nearly two thirds of British voters describe achieving this objective as “very important”.

The following are the prime minister’s other negotiation goals, which he has pledged to achieve before holdingthe vote by the end of 2017, and are viewed as less important by the British public:

• Giving the UK an exemption from the EU’s commitment to forge an “ever closer union”.
  
• A focus on competitiveness and economic growth by freeing up the service sector and promoting trade.
  
• Fairness between eurozone and non-eurozone members to ensure that countries outside the single currency do not have new rules in the single market imposed on them.

When asked by Ipsos to describe the reasons why freedom of movement should be restricted, more than 70% of respondents said that it was due to pressure on public services. A majority mentioned the number coming to the UK to claim benefits (59%), pressure on housing (55%) and that the UK is becoming overcrowded (54%).

Only 14% said that migrants from the EU dilute British culture, 8% said the UK is losing sovereignty and 5% said EU nationals were creating competition for skilled jobs.

The Ipsos analysis also revealed that most voters aren’t confident that the prime minister will get a good deal: 26% are not confident at all, while 40% are not very confident.

Bobby Duffy, managing director of Ipsos Social Research Institute, said:

“It’s a really tough conversation to have with the public, as we know trust in the government on immigration has been very low for decades, and it is no longer a strong point for the Conservatives. But the government also needs to bear in mind that it’s not just a rational argument, people react emotionally on immigration, so myth-busting may have limited impact.

“David Cameron will also need to be very careful in managing expectations on what he can achieve – the government got that wrong on the net migration targets, and the survey suggests that raising then not meeting expectations on restricting freedom of movement could be disastrous for those who want Britain to stay in the EU.”

Has polling around the EU referendum narrowed in recent weeks?

For the first time since November 2014, more British people want to leave the EU than remain a member, according to a poll released last week by YouGov. It has the vote to leave on 40%, the one to stay in the EU on 38%.

Another poll, also released this month, by ICM, shows that 43% of Britons would vote to remain in the EU if a referendum were held today, while 40% would vote to leave. In May, the same polling firm had the vote to remain ahead by 14 points.

However, another set of figures, published this week by ComRes, have the vote to remain in the EU ahead by 19 points, fundamentally unchanged since June.

Meanwhile, in Scotland, the vote to remain in the EU is seemingly well ahead. The latest figures by TNS have the vote to stay on 47% compared to the 18% that would vote to leave – showing little change since May.

Ipsos Mori interviewed a representative sample of 2,798 British online adults aged 16+ years between 26 June and 2 July as part of a longitudinal study supported by funding from Unbound Philanthropy. Results were weighted by demographic factors to represent the British population.