UK Edition
Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Labour narrows gap to six points as women voters surge towards Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.
Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.
The Tories are on 44 per cent of the vote with Labour on 38. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.
It marks a dramatic tightening of the election race, with the Tories enjoying a 15-point lead over Labour at the beginning of the month.
Driving Labour’s comeback appears to be women voters, who have grown increasingly positive about Mr Corbyn’s party in recent weeks.
Just 31 per cent of women planned to vote Labour in mid-May but that figure has jumped to 40 per cent this week – just a single point behind the Tories.
The polling, carried out after the Manchester terror attack on Wednesday and Thursday, indicates Labour has not been impacted by security becoming a more prominent election issue.
It also suggests its left-wing manifesto, which included tax rises for the top 5 per cent and widespread renationalisation, played better with the public than the Tory’s pitch.
Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB International, said: “The major change in four weeks has been the shift in support among women.
“Slowly by slowly more women appear to be inclined to vote Labour. On the issues women have more confidence in Jeremy Corbyn than men.
“Theresa May needs to appeal to these women over the next two weeks if she wants to increase her majority in the House of Commons.”
The sharp change in the polls coincided with the release of the Labour and the Conservative manifestos last week.
Labour’s policy offering, which was leaked a week early, contained key proposals such as rail nationalisation that proved popular with voters according to the polls.
The Conservatives’ manifesto saw headlines dominated by their social care reforms, which included scrapping universal winter fuel payments and the ‘triple-lock’ on state pensions.
Days later Theresa May was forced to reverse her stance after Labour attacks over the “dementia tax” by promising a cap on how much families would pay for social care.
The ORB’s election tracker shows the scale of the tightening polls. In mid-May the Tories were on 46 per cent and Labour on 31 per cent; that is now 44 and 38.
It also provides insights about what is driving that change. Smaller parties are being squeezed, it appears.
In late April, Ukip and the Lib Dems were together backed by around 18 per cent of voters. That has dropped to 13 per cent as the election draws near.
Brexit voters also appear to have warmed to Labour in the last week as other issues have taken centre stage. One in four Leave voters now back Labour, up from one in five last week.
However Mrs May continues to have a strong lead against Mr Cotrbyn when it comes to who is best placed to tackle key issues facing the country.
She has a double-digit lead on handing the UK economy, immigration, Brexit, defence and the country’s security over Mr Corbyn. He is more trusted on the NHS.
Where is the Labour surge coming from?
Labour's polling surge is coming from a number of sections of society according to our poll.
In this edition of our survey - the fifth that has been conducted so far - the Conservatives' lead among women is at the lowest level recorded.
As much as 40 per cent of the female population now intend to vote for Labour while 41 per cent say they will vote Conservative. It means that Theresa May's lead among women has dropped by 15 points from a fortnight ago.
Remain voters also seem to be moving away from the Conservatives but towards Labour rather than the Liberal Democrats.
Theresa May's party has dropped by six points among the 48 per cent compared with two weeks ago while Labour have gained five points in the same period.
Labour still have leadership issues
While Jeremy Corbyn's team do seem to be making ground when it comes to voting intention they still trail the Conservatives by significant margins when it comes to their perceived ability to deal with the key issues facing the UK.
In a week where 22 people were killed in a terror attack in Manchester, 57 per cent of the electorate picked Theresa May and her party as being the ones who would do the best job at keeping the UK safe.
Just 30 per cent think that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour leadership team would do the best job.
Similarly, 59 per cent back the Conservatives to do the best job when it comes to defence, compared to 28 per cent who picked Labour.
The Conservatives also clearly come out on top when it comes to issues such as getting the best Brexit deal, the economy and handling immigration.
The only issue on which Labour are more trusted than the Conservatives is the NHS. This, combined with Theresa May's extremely high personal ratings will give the Conservatives hope that they can weather Labour's recent polling surge.
