Scottish independence referendum: Scotland votes no - as it happened

Ben Quinn, who is at the Aberdeenshire count and earlier broke the story that Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, is not attending his local count, has been speaking to the Lib Dem MP Malcolm Bruce. The fact that Salmond is not attending “tells you everything you need to know”, Bruce said. He went on:

It’s all about Alex Salmond. Alex Salmond will not come anywhere if he has not got a triumphant accolade around him and something to crow about. He will just crawl away quietly, as he has done in the past when things don’t work out.

I said to my campaign manager as soon as we started seeing the first sample results: ‘Salmond won’t come here’.

We only have had the early samples but they were pretty good. I never understood this argument that there was a movement from no to yes. We had been saying for a number of weeks that we had been getting clear, strong consistent no.

Our political correspondent Rowena Mason writes:

One of the first large areas to declare will be North Lanarkshire, where reports are suggesting the yes campaign might have won by a small margin. Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, told the BBC the no camp “might have just lost out” in the fourth biggest local authority, where there is strong SNP support. Smaller authorities Clackmannanshire, Shetland and Moray are all battling to be the first to declare.

My colleague Ewen MacAskill is at Ingliston in Edinburgh, where the overall national result will be announced. He has sent us this.

MPs and party officials are beginning to drift into the count at Ingliston, Edinburgh. They are too coy to go public at this stage, saying it is too early in the night, but there is a definite bounce to the Better Together no camp. They cited different reasons: from the YouGov poll to Salmond opting to spend the night at his home in Strichen.

The MP for North-East Fife, Sir Menzies Campbell, said: “Naturally the Better Together campaign has been encouraged by the YouGov poll.”

He cautioned that polls had been wrong in the past, such as in 1992 when people had gone to bed thinking Neil Kinnock had won only to waken up in the morning to find John Major was still prime minister.

But he added: “Polling is much more sophisticated today. We take comfort from that.”

Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish secretary, says that Alex Salmond should put his obsession with independence aside if the no side win. He spoke to my colleague Severin Carrell.

Assuming no does win, the question Alex Salmond has to answer is ‘will you now put your independence obsession to one side, and work for the first time in your political life with other parties, with business, the trade unions and churches, and be part of the consensus, building instead of dividing Scottish politics?’

Asked about the YouGov poll, Carmichael said: “If that is decision at the end of the night, then that ticks all the boxes that we identified at the start of this process: a fair, legal and decisive decision.”

David Cameron is reported planning a statement on constitutional reform for England this morning. (See here). On Newsnight two MPs representing constituencies in England offered him ideas.

Liam Fox, the Conservative former defence secretary, and a Scot, said he favoured stopping Scottish MPs from voting on English-only bills.

I’m not in favour of a separate English parliament, because I think with parish councils, town councils, district councils, county councils, Westminster, the last thing we require is another level of government. But I do think effectively what we must ensure is that Scottish MPs, who cannot vote on issues like health and education in Scotland, should not be entitled to vote on health and education in constituencies like mine in North Somerset. It is profoundly undemocratic and unfair, that needs to be dealt with.

And John Denham, the Labour former communities secretary, expressed some sympathy for this.

At first you’ve got to have a constitutional convention in England. Secondly, we are going to have change in Westminster, it’s clear that the more powers that go to the Scottish Parliament, the less you can have Scottish MPs voting on the same issues for England, that’s got to change in one way or another. Thirdly, though, England is much too centralised. So this isn’t just about reducing the influence of Scottish MPs in Westminster, it’s about getting English decisions out of Westminster.

In Glasgow there have been allegations of electoral fraud, Sky News reports. There were claims that, in 10 cases, people turned up to vote and found someone had already voted under that name. The police have been called in and some ballot papers are being removed from ballot boxes so they can be investigated.

A reminder of the key constituencies to watch for tonight, courtesy of our Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell and Libby Brooks:

Edinburgh

Scotland’s political and financial capital has the country’s second largest electorate, with 377,413 registered voters (8.8% of the electorate). Made prosperous by its banks, tourism, universities, corporate HQs and legal industry, with only 49% of its residents describing themselves as solely Scottish – the lowest level in Scotland, Edinburgh is expected to vote no. Its GDP is second only to London but there are large and energetic pockets of yes support, particularly in the historic port area of Leith, amongst its large student population and peripheral housing estates. So the result could be tight.

Fife

Known to its proudly independent residents as the Kingdom of Fife, this large semi-rural county north of Edinbugh has Scotland’s third largest electorate, of 302,108 voters (7% of the total). Once a Labour bastion before its coal mines, naval dockyard and heavy industry faded, it is home to former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown and former UK Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell. But many Fifers vote SNP, particularly in the new town of Glenrothes and Fife’s commuter belt which feeds Edinburgh, and its Labour vote cannot be taken for granted.

Aberdeen

Made rich and secure by 40 years of North Sea oil production, Aberdeen dominates north east Scotland, the original heartland for the Scottish National party. Although only Scotland’s 8^th largest electorate, with 175,740 voters (4% of the total) its oil wealth and fame gives it symbolic status. Its population is very mixed, with a large number of non-Scots residents and is expected to vote no, despite large areas of poverty.

Dundee

Dundee, once famous for its jute, jam, linoleum and journalism (it is home to the Sunday Post), Dundee is most likely to be one of the independence movement’s greatest prizes: the Scottish National party is credited with revitalising a city left moribund by Labour. Its 118,721 voters only make up 2.8% of Scotland’s total electorate, but Yes Scotland has dominated the referendum landscape.

Aberdeenshire

A largely rural prosperous county which cuts into the Cairngorm mountains, with some of the UK’s largest surviving fishing ports at Peterhead and Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire has 206,487 voters (4.8% of the total). It is wealthy thanks to its proximity to North Sea oil and is also home to Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, and the Queen’s Scottish home at Balmoral on Royal Deeside. It has been the Scottish National party’s heartland for decades but the polls suggest Aberdeenshire will vote no on Thursday.

Western Isles

The Western Isles island chain on the edge of the Atlantic is home to Scotland’s largest Gaelic population and is distinctively Presbyterian in the north, where Sunday is still largely observed as a day of rest. With Scotland’s third smallest electorate, of just 22,908 (0.5% of the total), it is a Scottish National party/Labour marginal. Its economy is weak, and heavily dependent on state spending. It is the most likely of Scotland’s large island groups to vote yes, with Orkney and Shetland expected to reject independence.

Glasgow

With an electorate of 486,219 registered voters, about 11% of the total Scottish electorate, Glasgow will be both the largest single council area to declare and the latest, with the result expected at 5am. Pro-independence campaigners hope that the increase of 65,000 registered voters since the last Westminster election is a result of registration drives in poorer areas and that this cohort, disillusioned by Westminister politics, will be voting yes. If Glasgow does go yes by a significant margin, this will not only have a serious impact on the overall result but will be a sign of Labour’s failure to mobilise its core vote against independence.

Borders

With a traditionally conservative population of farmers and retirees (30% of residents are aged 60 or over) Southern Scotland is home to those whom the Better Together leader Alistair Darling likes to describe as “the quiet but resolute majority”. A Liberal-Tory stronghold, the most recent polling for ITV Borders found, excluding undecideds, 67% of the region in favour of remaining within the union, with only a 3 point increase in support for independence since June. But with a scattered population, it represents only 2.2% of the total electorate.

North Ayrshire

Making up 2.7% of the total electorate, North Ayrshire includes an affluent commuter belt as well as areas of high unemployment following the demise of the steel and textile industries. Traditionally unionist and regarded as Labour safe seat, it did return two SNP MSPs in the last Holyrood election but it is expected that the working class vote here with favour no.

North Lanarkshire

A sizeable area, with around 6% of the electorate, North Lanarkshire includes deprived working class areas like Motherwell as well as the new town of Cumbernauld and has been the location of a number of hard-fought and sometimes bitter electoral battles between the SNP and Labour. There is a possibility that its proximity to Glasgow may sway it towards yes.

Perth and Kinross

Expected to declare around 2am, this is a traditionally Conservative area with strong SNP representation in Holyrood from stalwarts Roseanna Cunnigham and John Swinney. Although the population only represents around 3% of the electorate, and many expect the mainly rural area to go towards no, a yes surge here could be an early indication of the mood of the country.

Highlands

One of the areas to declare later, with results expected at 4am, and with an electorate of nearly 191,000 or 4% of the total, the Highlands has a mainly rural population who are expected to strongly favour no, although the area includes Inverness where the yes campaign has been especially active.

This is from Sky’s Adam Boulton.

Wallace is a Lib Dem member of the House of Lords, a member of the government (advocate general for Scotland - a law officer), and a former deputy first minister in the Scottish government.

Nicky Woolf has more from New York’s oldest Scottish bar, St Andrew’s bar near Times Square.

George Alexander Campbell, originally from Glasgow, moved to New York to marry his late wife, Priscilla, whom he met when she was in Scotland on a trip. Born in Boston and brought up in New York, she was a descendant of the ancient Tribe of Mar and was pipe-major for the New York Scottish Pipes and Drums.

She passed away a few years ago, Campbell tells me, but in her honour he is wearing the Mar tartan and full ceremonial regalia tonight. He’s hoping for a win for the No camp. “There’s eternal reasons why not. My wife, she always said absolutely not. Her intuition said no. I’ll stay with that.”

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Our political sketchwriter John Crace is at the Edinburgh count:

Waiting. Waiting. Politicians, activists, officials and journalists: everyone was waiting. The most intense, engaged election campaign ever held in the UK had just ended and no one was too sure how to fill the final hours of limbo before the result was announced. The main displacement activity was for everyone to ask everyone else if they knew what the hell was likely to happen. The honorary consul for Norway looked particularly lost. “Do you know when any announcement is likely to be made?” he asked. He didn’t look particularly happy to discover he might have to hang around till the early morning to hear the result. “Are you sure?” Yes. “Mmm. Maybe I will come back.”

Things began to warm up a bit around 10.30 as the broadcasters shuffled the talking heads between themselves. Dennis Canavan, the New Labour refusenik turned independent, was in particular demand. Around the tables for Edinburgh West where the postal votes were being counted, a Yes campaigner was looking gloomy. “It’s 77-33 for the Nos so far,” he said. “It’s about what we expected here, though.” It didn’t look that way.

Not everyone was that subdued, though. A Pakistani ‘Business for Scotland’ Yes supporter called Mr Hussein came over. “Who are you with?” he asked. The Guardian. “You have been very biased,” he declared. “May you burn in hell. With Scottish oil.” With that he flung his arms out and hugged me. “I came here from Huddersfield in 1969 and we’re all basically the same aren’t we? Whatever the result, when all this is over I am going to have a big party. And I’m going to invite you too. You’ve got to have a laugh haven’t you?”

He seemed to be the only person in the hall feeling that way at that particular moment. Within hours another 50 per cent of the hall would be laughing just as loudly. A You Gov poll suggested it would be the Nos. The question left hanging was how long it would take all the other Yes campaigners other than Mr Hussein to start laughing again.