Scottish independence referendum: Scotland votes no - as it happened

Tomorrow’s newspapers may very soon be out of date, but here are some of their front pages nonetheless, courtesy as usual of the BBC’s Nick Sutton.

Regional papers the Journal, the Northern Echo, the Yorkshire Post and the Manchester Evening News have teamed up to demand more powers for the north of England following the UK party leaders “vow” to give Scotland more powers in the event of a no vote. PO

Here’s the YouGov summary of its findings.

Some 10% of no voters said they encountered unreasonable behaviour from yes campaigners, YouGov found. Only 5% of yes supporters found the no side unreasonable. YouGov say:

YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. Today’s respondents had previously given their voting intention earlier this week. By recontacting them, we could assess any last-minute shift in views. Today’s responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote.

YouGov also asked people whether they had encountered active supporters of the Yes and No campaigns at their local polling station and, if so, whether the campaigners had acted reasonably. Big majorities said that any campaigners they encountered behaved reasonably; but 10% of No voters said they had encountered unreasonable behaviour by Yes campaigners, while 5% of Yes voters said they encountered unreasonable behaviour by No campaigners.

Sky’s Anushka Asthana says the no camp think the YouGov figures are reliable. AS

Until the results arrive, you have to blog with what’s available. So here are some pundits talking about a pundit (YouGov’s Peter Kellner).

From Philip Cowley, the psephologist

From the Guardian’s Tom Clark

From Huw Price

From LabourList’s Mark Ferguson

Nicky Woolf is at New York’s oldest Scottish bar, St Andrew’s bar near Times Square, where they’re expecting a packed house tonight to watch the results come in.

At the bar as the polls close I meet Colin and Marion Cameron, from Dumfries. They’re here on holiday, and have already voted by postal ballot.

Colin thinks there just hasn’t been enough information to justify a ‘yes’ vote, and though he says he would “love Scotland to be independent,” he thinks Alex Salmond hasn’t satisfactorily answered the economic questions that go with it. He says he does business across the border, and is worried about what would happen to it. He voted no.

Marion says that she’s sick of the way that “England, especially London, make all the decisions.”

I ask her how she voted, and when she says she voted yes, Colin turns and looks at her in something approaching alarm. “That’s the first I’m hearing of it,” he says.

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Twitter wings over some official data on today’s social media activity: it’s been busy.

• 1.5m tweets about the referendum in the 48 hours to the close of polls – that’s one-fifth (21%) of the more than 7 million tweets about the referendum sent since the first televised debate on 5 August.
• There have been more than 1.55m uses of Yes campaign hashtags in tweets since 5 August, against 500,000 that added pro-No hashtags.
• In the 48 hours before the polls closed, Yes garnered 378,000 hashtag mentions; No just 138,000.

Which hashtags were people using? Bear in mind that three of the five of these were tagged pretty neutrally by a lot of Twitter users:

1. #IndyRef 3.75m
2. #VoteYes 1.1m
3. #Scotland 439,000
4. #ScotDecides 272,000
5. #BetterTogether 224,000

The prize for most-retweeted tweet of the day goes to Andy Murray (@Andy_Murray), whose last-minute nod to the yes camp hit over 18,000 RTs:

Here’s more from Peter Kellner.

From the Sun’s Steve Hawkes (YouGov polls for the Sun)

Peter Kellner, the YouGov president, seems to be determined to be the first man to call the election.

CNN’s poll of polls seems to have thrown in a few too many ... PO

Here is some more detail on the YouGov poll. It’s from the Press Association.

A poll taken by YouGov after people voted in the Scottish referendum predicts a victory for No by 54% to 46% for Yes. The survey involved 1,828 people after they voted today, together with the postal votes of 800 people, and was not a traditional exit poll.

The phrase “exit poll” is normally associated with polls conducted in person outside polling stations, and in particular with the BBC’s general election one, which is a massive exercise, involving a very huge sample and carefully selected sample. AS