Scottish independence referendum: Scotland votes no - as it happened

Here are the YouGov poll figures.

I notice that Sky are calling it an exit poll. Purists would contest that. See here. But it is a poll of people who say they went to a polling station and exited, so you could justify the term, I suppose. AS

And here’s some more hardcore data for readers who really want to get stuck into the figures.

The votes are being counted by local authority area. There are 32 local authority areas, and this chart tells you, authority by authority, when the results are due.

More importantly, it also includes a “yes” rating - which says whether or not an area is expected to vote yes. A 10 is the maximum rating.

(The ratings have been produced by analysts at Credit Suisse. Quite why the bank is so interested in Scottish independence, is something of a mystery, but their analysis seems robust, and they have been widely circulated in Scotland. If this was a normal parliamentary election, you would be able to compare results with previous election results. But Scotland has never had a referendum on independence before, and so analysts have had to make judgments using other information, such as SNP support and how areas voted when Scotland voted on devolution in 1997.)

As an alternative way of assessing which areas are most likely to vote yes is to look at the betting odds. Here are the figures from Paddy Power.

And here is a useful chart showing previous turnout records. AS

Alberto Nardelli, our datablog editor, is going to be giving us a running analysis of the results as we get them. He explains the approach he’s going to take:

At the top of this liveblog we will have an interactive embedded that will keep a tally on the results as they are announced. One key element to keep in mind will be how far we are in the count and how many results are left to come - we’re visualising this using a progress bar in which each segment represents a council. Early in the evening, the results will bounce around a bit due to the relatively small number of votes counted at that stage – so be careful not to read too much into early results.

The key set of figures we will be reporting on as the evening progresses is the size of the gap between yes and no, and the amount of votes the side that is behind would need to catch up, and how probable this is based on remaining councils.

5 May 2011 – SNP wins a majority in Scottish parliament elections. Scotland uses a system of proportional representation unofficially intended to stop any one party gaining an overall majority, but the SNP, which had run Scotland as a minority government since winning in 2007, can now pass legislation without needing the support of other parties. This means that an independence referendum – a longstanding SNP aim, but one sidelined from 2007 to 2011 – now becomes almost inevitable.

15 October 2012 – David Cameron, the Conservative UK prime minister, and Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, sign the Edinburgh agreement. This paves the way for the September 2014 referendum, giving it full legal backing and removing any possibility of the UK government trying to block or ignore a referendum organised unilaterally in Scotland.

26 November 2013 – Salmond publishes the Scottish government’s independence white paper. Called Scotland’s Future, and running to 670 pages, this clear, easy-to-read and widely-distributed document is intended to show that the SNP has answers to every conceivable question about independence.

13 February 2014 – George Osborne, Conservative chancellor in the UK coalition government, announces that Westminster will not form a currency union with an independent Scotland. The Lib Dems, the Conservative’s coalition partners, and Labour, the opposition, also rule out a currency union. This theoretically destroys Salmond’s currency policy, although Salmond says the three unionist parties are bluffing.

10 March 2014 – Gordon Brown, the Labour former prime minister, attacks independence in a speech setting an alternative vision for Scotland. Having largely disappeared from UK politics since his defeat in 2010, Brown starts getting involved in the campaign in early 2014 and he uses this speech to set out a blueprint for major constitutional reform, involving a move towards federalism, which helps to convert Labour and the Conservatives to a similar approach.

5 August 2014 – Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, sign a joint declaration promising more power for Scotland in the event of a no vote. The move comes on the day Salmond and Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, have their first televised debate – an encounter which Darling is subsequently judged to have won comfortably.

25 August 2014 – Salmond and Darling hold their second debate. By linking Darling with the coalition’s welfare policies, and attacking the money spent by the UK government on Trident nuclear weapons, Salmond scores a clear victory, and re-energises a yes campaign that, despite gaining ground on no, is still stubbornly behind in the polls.

7 September 2014 – A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times put yes ahead, by 51% to 49%, for the first time in the campaign. The findings create panic at Westminster, where until now it was assumed that a no victory was guaranteed, and Cameron and Miliband start urgently debating what they can do to shore up the no vote.

10 September 2014 – Cameron, Miliband and Clegg take the unprecedented decision to abandon PMQs and instead travel to Scotland to campaign. They all also back a timetable, announced by Brown, saying work on preparing legislation for more devolution to Scotland in the event of a no vote will start as soon as the referendum is over.

16 September 2014 – Cameron, Miliband and Clegg use a signed message on the front of the Daily Record, the “vow”, to reaffirm their commitment to more powers for Scotland. They also say they want to continue the Barnett formula, which gives Scotland a guaranteed level of income from the UK Treasury. AS

Reports of high turnout are starting to come in.

The Guardian’s #indyref correspondents are stationed at counting centres across Scotland tonight. Here’s the view from a handful of them:

Steven Morris is in Dundee:

The waiting begins. Atmosphere muted, tense at the international sports complex, where the Dundee count will take place. Frankly, people look done in already – and the result is still an estimated six hours away …

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Ben Quinn is in Aberdeen:

Boxes of postal ballots are just about to arrive at the Aberdeenshire referendum count – which takes in the backyard of the man who has been leading the charge for Scottish independence, Alex Salmond.

The Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre (AECC) has been the scene of victory speeches during electoral glories by the SNP leader in 2007 and 2011. Will we see him here again tonight in a similarly buoyant mood?

Aberdeenshire is one of eleven Scottish council areas (representing nearly a third of the electorate) who are expected to declare their results at 3am. The count for Aberdeen City is taking place to the south of the AECC at Robert Gordon University and is expected to be one of the very last to declare.

By 5am, more than 95% of the votes are likely to have been counted with just Aberdeen, a wealthy area of Scotland, still to announce. Although just 4% of the registered electorate live here, all eyes could be on it if the referendum result comes down to the final count.

Frances Perraudin is in Edinburgh:

The Royal Highland Centre at Ingliston, where the Edinburgh count is taking place, is still very quiet – there are many more tables and facilities than journalists. They are reading out the protocol for reporting the results to the gathered media in the media hall. Over in the huge count room, in the neighbouring building, they have distributed the boxes of votes and are emptying them onto the table one-by-one.

Libby Brooks is in Glasgow:

The Glasgow count has just begun at the Emirates Arena in the east end of the city, where the ballots are divided into eight mini counts for Anniesland, Kelvin, Pollock, Shettleston, Cathcart, Maryhill and Spirngnurn, Provab and the Southside. Referendum agents for campaign groups ranging from Farming for Yes to the Labour party are gathering around the stage to the right of the photo. The huge halls is still fairly empty bar the packed rows of count staff, but that will change as campaigners leave polling stations and head for the arena.

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We’re getting the poll at 10.30pm.

Apparently it’s a poll of people in Scotland who have voted. It’s not what you would call a conventional exit poll, because YouGov did not poll people in person outside polling stations. Instead, it seems they questioned members of their internet panel who said they had cast a vote. AS

If you’ve followed the Scottish independence campaign closely, you can give this a miss.

But if you haven’t read much about this, here are some posts that will help make sense of it.

A video guide for non-Brits.

A guide to what happens over the next few hours

John Crace’s comic summary of the campaign

A guide to the key figures (in no particular order)

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1 - Gordon Brown

He was prime minister of the United Kingdom and leader of the Labour party from 2007 until 2010. He was blamed by the rival Conservative party for causing the last recession, but is currently enjoying a political renaissance.

2 - Ruth Davidson

Currently leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party and member of the Scottish parliament, she campaigns for Better Together, though she has also had a difficult role to play in the independence debate because her party has so little support in Scotland.

3 - John Swinney

The cabinet secretary for finance, employment and sustainable growth in the Scottish government and an SNP member of the Scottish parliament. in Holyrood. He has been key in making the case for why an independent Scotland would be economically viable.

4 - Nicola Sturgeon

Deputy leader of the SNP and deputy first minister of Scotland since 2004, she is considered to have been a very persuasive force in the independence debate. She is seen as much less divisive than her leader.

5 - Alex Salmond

Leader of the Scottish National party (SNP) and Scotland’s first minister, Salmond is a former oil economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland and, apart from a four-year gap between 2000 and 2004, has been leading the country’s nationalists since 1990.

6 - Alistair Darling

A British Labour party MP who served in the cabinet continuously from Labour’s victory in 1997 until its defeat in 2010, including as chancellor of the exchequer from 2007 to 2010. He is leader of the pro-union Better Together campaign and is widely thought to have been ineffective during televised debates with Alex Salmond.

7 - David Cameron

Prime minister of the United Kingdom since 2010 and leader of the Conservative party since 2005. Until recently, he thought it was best for him to stay out of the referendum debate due to the unpopularity of his party in Scotland.

8 - Ed Miliband

Leader of the opposition Labour party since 2010, he has thrown himself behind the Better Together campaign. Labour has a lot of support in Scotland and, if the country votes for independence, it would make it harder for Miliband’s party to win a national election.

9 - Blair Jenkins

Chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign and former head of news and current affairs for both BBC Scotland and STV. He has never been a member of any political party, but said the issue of Scottish independence was too important for him to stand on the sidelines.

My name is Andrew Sparrow and I’ll be the main anchor for the blog tonight, with contributions from Polly Curtis and Paul Owen.

At the Edinburgh count we have Severin Carrell, Nicholas Watt, Ewen MacAskill, Frances Perraudin, John Crace and Michael White. Martin Kettle is also on hand for instant analysis of the voting. And Josh Halliday is spending the night in an Edinburgh pub as voters raise their glasses, drown their sorrows and eat crisps.

Tom Clark and Phil Maynard will also be staking out the Edinburgh count, with video analysis and a podcast for those wanting to know how the land lies on Friday.

Libby Brooks is in Glasgow, and other reporters are stationed at counts right across Scotland: Esther Addley is in Shetland, Helen Pidd at Kelso for the Borders count, Ben Quinn is on hand in Aberdeen, and Steven Morris is in Dundee.

The Guardian’s data editor, Alberto Nardelli, will also be providing instant results analysis and data, doing swift sums as the counts take place about how much each side needs to win (and when one side really can’t win).

In Westminster, Rowena Mason will be reporting as the UK party leaders wait anxiously for results; our political editor Patrick Wintour will be first with political analysis on Friday morning.

Nicky Woolf is hanging out in St Andrew’s bar, a Scottish bar in New York’s Times Square that’s throwing a referendum party tonight (actually, is it pub time in New York yet?).

My print colleagues in London will also be extending normal deadlines for the newspaper into the small hours to produce late editions that will hope to capture the result when it comes.

Over the next eight hours or so, the future of the United Kingdom - one of the world’s G7 powers and home to 64m people - will be decided. Scotland is deciding whether to stay or to leave.

After a referendum campaign lasting effectively two years, the Scots (but not the English, Welsh or Northern Irish - the other members of the union of nations that make up the UK) have been voting today. The campaign has generated extraordinary interest and excitement, turnout seems set to break all records and the polls have just closed. The first area result is due at about 2am UK time - in four hours - and the final outcome should be known by breakfast tomorrow morning (ie, 4/5 hours later). If Scotland votes to go it alone, the decision will be final and Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, wants independence on 24 March 2016.

As you can imagine, one way or another, people have rather strong feelings about all of this.

From one perspective, Scotland leaving the UK would amount to the break up of one of the more prosperous, powerful and harmonious states on the planet, a political union that has lasted 307 years and a country (if you treat the UK as one country, not four) that abolished the slave trade, defeated Napoleon, launched the industrial revolution, colonised a quarter of the globe and stood alone against Hitler. The Queen is not the only person on these islands who feels this might be a shame.

Yet there is another perspective, vocal on the streets of Scotland today, where yes to independence campaigners have been in festival mood all day, anticipating a glorious democratic moment when the Scots finally win the right to run their own affairs. Once the English and the Scots were culturally and politically close, but for the last half century they’ve been drifting apart, and the SNP (once a fringe irrelevance) became the governing party in Scotland because voters grew increasingly fed up with London. SNP nationalism is civic, progressive, pro-immigration and welcoming to foreigners (unless they’re Nick Robinson) and, if Scotland becomes independent, there are hopes it could become a beacon for inclusive politics - and an inspiration to other parts of the UK.

Even if Scotland votes to stay in the UK, as the polls suggest it will, it will never be quite the same. The three main UK pro-union parties - the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats - have all promised more devolution to Scotland in the event of a no.

We’ll expecting another poll very, very soon - not a conventional exit poll (clipboards outside polling stations), but an internet poll of people who say they have voted.

I’m in Edinburgh, where I can hear campaigners, yes ones, I think, driving past hooting their horns in excitement. Throughout the night I’ll be covering all the results as they come in, with contributions from an army of Guardian journalists all over Scotland, in London and around the world too. It won’t be dull. AS