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UK economy up 0.5% since Brexit vote, Nissan to build new Qashqai in Sunderland – as it happened

This article is more than 7 years old
 Updated 
Thu 27 Oct 2016 10.03 EDTFirst published on Thu 27 Oct 2016 02.42 EDT
A giant graffiti mural depicting the Union Jack in London.
A giant graffiti mural depicting the Union Jack in London. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA
A giant graffiti mural depicting the Union Jack in London. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

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ONS: Little evidence of Brexit effect

Today’s report shows that Britain has not suffered a Brexit shock, according to Joe Grice, head of the Office for National Statistics.

Grice says:

There is little evidence of a pronounced effect in the immediate aftermath of the vote”

Service sector grows, everything else shrank

Britain’s service sector, which makes up three quarters of the economy, is the only part which grew in the last three months.

Service sector output grew by 0.8% in July-September.

  • Construction shrank by 1.4%
  • Agriculture shrank bu 0.7%
  • Industrial production shrank by 0.4%
  • And manufacturing (part of production) shrank by 1%

At first glance, this report suggests that the UK economy has shrugged off the immediate shock of the EU referendum.

It has grown faster than predicted in the gloomier forecasts ahead of June’s vote. Remember, the Treasury said the economy would shrink by 0.1% after a Brexit vote.

Boom. UK GDP 0.5% q/q in Q3 - bang in line with the post-crisis average. @graemewearden pic.twitter.com/Ah3K78bHaQ

— Marcus Wright (@MarcusEconomics) October 27, 2016

On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.3% during the last quarter.

Again, that’s stronger than expected.

UK GDP Q3 (YoY)
Actual: 2.3% Survey: 2.1% Prior: 2.1% #gbp

— Michael Hewson (@mhewson_CMC) October 27, 2016

GDP 0.5%.. quite a bit better than many economists expected

— Emily Purser (@EmilyPurser) October 27, 2016

UK GDP RELEASED

HERE WE GO! Britain’s economy grew by 0.5% in the three months after the Brexit vote.

That’s down from 0.7% in the second quarter of 2016, showing that growth has slowed.

But it’s also stronger than the 0.3% which economists has expected.

More to follow!

Tension is building, with just four minutes until we learn how the UK economy performed after the EU referendum....

Stand by your desks! UK GDP is due in a few minutes....

— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) October 27, 2016

Back in April, the Treasury claimed that the economy would shrink by 0.1% for four quarters in a row, if Britain voted to leave the EU.

Today’s GDP report is the first test of that assessment....

Q3 GDP forecast by OBR a year ago at +0.7%, at Budget at +0.5%. And in HMT pre EUref impact assessment at -0.1 ... pic.twitter.com/tV8OPlZDtt

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 27, 2016

[UPDATE: This forecast may have assumed Britain had triggered Article 50 immediately after the referendum].

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A flash of good news from Madrid: the Spanish unemployment rate hit its lowest level since 2009 in the last quarter. But it’s still 18.9%, despite a surge in summer hiring to handle the tourist trade.

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